Preseason Rankings
Providence
Big East
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.3#36
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.1#199
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.0#52
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.2#28
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.0% 2.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 5.5% 5.7% 0.8%
Top 4 Seed 14.7% 15.1% 3.8%
Top 6 Seed 26.0% 26.7% 8.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 55.9% 56.9% 29.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 51.3% 52.3% 25.2%
Average Seed 6.7 6.7 8.2
.500 or above 80.3% 81.4% 50.0%
.500 or above in Conference 61.0% 61.8% 36.9%
Conference Champion 11.1% 11.4% 3.8%
Last Place in Conference 6.1% 5.8% 14.1%
First Four4.3% 4.3% 4.1%
First Round54.0% 54.9% 27.6%
Second Round34.3% 34.9% 16.1%
Sweet Sixteen15.8% 16.2% 5.9%
Elite Eight6.9% 7.0% 2.6%
Final Four2.9% 3.0% 0.3%
Championship Game1.1% 1.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.5% 0.5% 0.0%

Next Game: Sacred Heart (Home) - 96.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 34 - 8
Quad 25 - 39 - 11
Quad 34 - 114 - 12
Quad 46 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 249   Sacred Heart W 86-67 97%    
  Nov 09, 2019 175   NJIT W 77-62 92%    
  Nov 13, 2019 99   @ Northwestern W 67-63 64%    
  Nov 16, 2019 307   St. Peter's W 75-52 98%    
  Nov 19, 2019 304   Merrimack W 82-59 98%    
  Nov 23, 2019 98   Penn W 75-65 82%    
  Nov 28, 2019 289   Long Beach St. W 84-66 95%    
  Dec 06, 2019 86   @ Rhode Island W 72-70 57%    
  Dec 14, 2019 196   Stony Brook W 79-62 93%    
  Dec 17, 2019 7   Florida L 63-69 30%    
  Dec 21, 2019 24   Texas W 68-66 56%    
  Dec 31, 2019 54   Georgetown W 80-75 65%    
  Jan 04, 2020 97   @ DePaul W 76-72 63%    
  Jan 07, 2020 27   @ Marquette L 71-75 38%    
  Jan 10, 2020 56   Butler W 72-67 67%    
  Jan 15, 2020 93   St. John's W 79-69 79%    
  Jan 18, 2020 37   @ Creighton L 72-75 40%    
  Jan 22, 2020 17   @ Seton Hall L 70-75 33%    
  Jan 25, 2020 11   Villanova L 66-68 44%    
  Feb 01, 2020 56   @ Butler L 69-70 46%    
  Feb 05, 2020 37   Creighton W 75-72 60%    
  Feb 08, 2020 23   @ Xavier L 67-71 36%    
  Feb 12, 2020 93   @ St. John's W 76-72 62%    
  Feb 15, 2020 17   Seton Hall W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 19, 2020 54   @ Georgetown L 77-78 45%    
  Feb 22, 2020 27   Marquette W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 29, 2020 11   @ Villanova L 63-71 26%    
  Mar 04, 2020 23   Xavier W 70-68 56%    
  Mar 07, 2020 97   DePaul W 79-69 80%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 1.9 3.1 2.8 1.8 0.8 0.2 11.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.6 4.2 2.3 0.7 0.1 12.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.8 4.4 3.9 1.4 0.1 0.0 11.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.7 4.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 12.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.3 3.6 0.6 0.0 12.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.1 3.2 0.5 0.0 11.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.2 4.4 2.7 0.4 0.0 10.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 2.3 3.4 2.0 0.2 0.0 8.6 8th
9th 0.2 0.8 2.0 2.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 6.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.1 3.6 10th
Total 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.1 3.7 5.3 7.0 9.1 10.6 11.1 10.9 10.5 9.1 7.6 5.5 3.5 1.9 0.8 0.2 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
16-2 96.4% 1.8    1.6 0.2
15-3 79.6% 2.8    2.1 0.7 0.0
14-4 56.0% 3.1    1.6 1.2 0.2 0.0
13-5 24.8% 1.9    0.6 0.9 0.3 0.0
12-6 6.2% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.1% 11.1 6.9 3.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 47.9% 52.1% 1.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.8% 100.0% 41.8% 58.2% 1.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.9% 100.0% 43.7% 56.3% 2.0 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 3.5% 100.0% 30.4% 69.6% 2.9 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 5.5% 99.7% 25.8% 73.9% 3.7 0.3 0.9 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
13-5 7.6% 99.4% 18.7% 80.7% 5.1 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.6 1.5 1.3 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.2%
12-6 9.1% 97.4% 14.6% 82.8% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 1.8 1.6 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 96.9%
11-7 10.5% 91.2% 10.0% 81.2% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.9 90.2%
10-8 10.9% 78.5% 6.9% 71.7% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.4 0.3 0.0 2.3 77.0%
9-9 11.1% 53.5% 5.1% 48.4% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.6 0.5 0.0 5.2 51.0%
8-10 10.6% 25.6% 3.7% 21.9% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.0 7.9 22.8%
7-11 9.1% 8.3% 2.0% 6.3% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.4 6.4%
6-12 7.0% 2.3% 1.5% 0.8% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.8 0.8%
5-13 5.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.2 0.0%
4-14 3.7% 0.4% 0.4% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6
3-15 2.1% 2.1
2-16 1.0% 1.0
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 55.9% 9.5% 46.4% 6.7 2.0 3.5 4.5 4.7 5.4 5.9 5.9 6.1 5.7 5.5 5.1 1.5 0.0 0.0 44.1 51.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 82.9 17.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 97.8 2.2