Preseason Rankings
Marquette
Big East
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.3#27
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.4#106
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.5#19
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.8#53
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.6% 0.7% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.2% 3.3% 0.5%
Top 2 Seed 8.0% 8.2% 1.6%
Top 4 Seed 19.9% 20.5% 5.7%
Top 6 Seed 32.1% 33.1% 10.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 61.9% 63.1% 34.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 56.8% 58.1% 30.8%
Average Seed 6.3 6.2 7.6
.500 or above 81.8% 83.0% 53.8%
.500 or above in Conference 67.2% 68.1% 47.4%
Conference Champion 14.0% 14.4% 5.5%
Last Place in Conference 4.3% 4.1% 10.1%
First Four3.5% 3.6% 1.8%
First Round60.2% 61.3% 33.9%
Second Round39.6% 40.5% 18.1%
Sweet Sixteen18.8% 19.4% 5.8%
Elite Eight8.5% 8.8% 1.7%
Final Four3.8% 4.0% 1.0%
Championship Game1.6% 1.7% 0.2%
National Champion0.7% 0.7% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Maryland (Home) - 95.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 8
Quad 25 - 210 - 10
Quad 34 - 113 - 11
Quad 45 - 019 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 209   Loyola Maryland W 86-68 96%    
  Nov 13, 2019 12   Purdue L 73-74 47%    
  Nov 17, 2019 33   @ Wisconsin L 66-69 41%    
  Nov 23, 2019 273   Robert Morris W 81-59 97%    
  Nov 28, 2019 52   Davidson W 73-70 59%    
  Dec 04, 2019 298   Jacksonville W 89-66 98%    
  Dec 07, 2019 50   @ Kansas St. L 66-67 48%    
  Dec 17, 2019 269   Grambling St. W 86-65 96%    
  Dec 20, 2019 153   North Dakota St. W 81-66 89%    
  Dec 28, 2019 284   Central Arkansas W 90-68 97%    
  Jan 01, 2020 37   @ Creighton L 76-78 44%    
  Jan 04, 2020 11   Villanova L 70-71 47%    
  Jan 07, 2020 36   Providence W 75-71 62%    
  Jan 11, 2020 17   @ Seton Hall L 74-78 35%    
  Jan 15, 2020 23   Xavier W 74-71 59%    
  Jan 18, 2020 54   @ Georgetown L 81-82 48%    
  Jan 21, 2020 93   St. John's W 83-72 81%    
  Jan 24, 2020 56   @ Butler L 72-73 50%    
  Jan 29, 2020 23   @ Xavier L 71-74 39%    
  Feb 01, 2020 97   DePaul W 83-72 81%    
  Feb 09, 2020 56   Butler W 76-70 69%    
  Feb 12, 2020 11   @ Villanova L 67-74 29%    
  Feb 18, 2020 37   Creighton W 79-75 63%    
  Feb 22, 2020 36   @ Providence L 72-74 43%    
  Feb 26, 2020 54   Georgetown W 85-79 67%    
  Feb 29, 2020 17   Seton Hall W 77-75 55%    
  Mar 03, 2020 97   @ DePaul W 80-75 66%    
  Mar 07, 2020 93   @ St. John's W 80-75 65%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.0 3.6 3.8 2.4 1.2 0.3 14.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 4.0 4.8 2.9 0.8 0.1 14.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.8 4.7 4.7 1.7 0.2 0.0 13.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.4 4.2 1.1 0.1 13.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.7 3.4 0.7 0.0 11.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.7 2.8 0.5 0.0 10.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.7 2.4 0.4 0.0 8.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 1.9 3.0 1.8 0.3 0.0 7.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.6 0.9 0.2 4.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.5 10th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.5 4.1 6.2 7.9 9.7 10.3 11.3 11.1 10.5 8.6 6.7 4.7 2.5 1.2 0.3 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.2    1.2 0.0
16-2 97.0% 2.4    2.2 0.3
15-3 82.0% 3.8    2.9 0.9 0.1
14-4 53.7% 3.6    1.9 1.4 0.2 0.0
13-5 23.1% 2.0    0.6 1.0 0.3 0.1
12-6 5.4% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.0% 14.0 9.2 3.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 100.0% 69.7% 30.3% 1.2 0.3 0.1 100.0%
17-1 1.2% 100.0% 47.9% 52.1% 1.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.5% 100.0% 45.1% 54.9% 1.9 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 4.7% 100.0% 35.1% 64.9% 2.7 0.8 1.5 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 6.7% 100.0% 26.3% 73.7% 3.7 0.4 1.2 1.6 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-5 8.6% 99.5% 21.5% 78.0% 5.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.8 1.6 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
12-6 10.5% 97.3% 16.3% 81.0% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.2 1.9 2.0 1.7 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 96.8%
11-7 11.1% 91.5% 10.1% 81.4% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.5 1.9 1.9 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.9 90.5%
10-8 11.3% 77.5% 6.0% 71.5% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.9 1.6 1.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.5 76.1%
9-9 10.3% 55.3% 5.5% 49.8% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.4 0.4 0.0 4.6 52.7%
8-10 9.7% 23.7% 2.4% 21.4% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.4 21.9%
7-11 7.9% 8.0% 1.7% 6.2% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 7.3 6.4%
6-12 6.2% 1.7% 0.7% 1.0% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.1 1.0%
5-13 4.1% 1.3% 1.1% 0.2% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1 0.2%
4-14 2.5% 0.3% 0.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5
3-15 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.5
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 61.9% 11.8% 50.2% 6.3 3.2 4.8 5.8 6.1 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.8 5.5 5.4 4.4 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 38.1 56.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 94.2 5.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 95.2 4.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0