IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Davidson
Atlantic 10
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	+9.7	#52
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	63.4	#319
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+5.2	#48

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+4.4	#58

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.6%	1.3%	0.2%
Top 2 Seed	1.7%	3.2%	0.8%
Top 4 Seed	5.4%	9.8%	2.6%
Top 6 Seed	10.5%	17.8%	5.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid	41.9%	56.2%	32.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	27.3%	41.9%	18.5%
Average Seed	8.7	8.1	9.4

.500 or above	92.9%	97.5%	89.8%
.500 or above in Conference	92.9%	96.1%	90.8%
Conference Champion	25.4%	32.9%	20.5%
Last Place in Conference	0.2%	0.0%	0.3%

First Four	6.9%	8.2%	6.1%
First Round	38.6%	51.9%	29.9%
Second Round	20.5%	29.7%	14.5%
Sweet Sixteen	8.3%	12.8%	5.3%
Elite Eight	3.3%	5.3%	2.0%
Final Four	1.3%	2.1%	0.7%
Championship Game	0.4%	0.7%	0.2%
National Champion	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%

Next Game: Auburn (Neutral) - 39.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	1 - 2	2 - 4
Quad 2	4 - 3	6 - 6
Quad 3	8 - 2	13 - 9
Quad 4	8 - 0	21 - 9

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 08, 2019	25	Auburn	L	70-73	40%
Nov 12, 2019	276	@ Charlotte	W	71-58	89%
Nov 16, 2019	268	UNC Wilmington	W	84-65	95%
Nov 19, 2019	95	Nevada	W	75-67	76%
Nov 22, 2019	91	Wake Forest	W	72-68	66%
Nov 28, 2019	27	Marquette	L	70-73	41%
Dec 07, 2019	130	@ Northeastern	W	71-66	67%
Dec 10, 2019	348	Coppin St.	W	84-57	99%
Dec 22, 2019	109	@ Loyola Chicago	W	63-60	60%
Dec 30, 2019	124	@ Vanderbilt	W	70-66	63%
Jan 05, 2020	126	@ Duquesne	W	74-70	64%
Jan 08, 2020	86	@ Rhode Island	W	69-68	52%
Jan 11, 2020	221	Saint Joseph's	W	78-62	91%
Jan 14, 2020	105	Richmond	W	74-65	77%
Jan 19, 2020	233	@ Fordham	W	69-58	81%
Jan 22, 2020	141	Saint Louis	W	71-59	84%
Jan 25, 2020	151	George Mason	W	75-63	84%
Jan 29, 2020	190	@ George Washington	W	72-63	77%
Feb 01, 2020	237	Massachusetts	W	77-60	92%
Feb 07, 2020	28	@ Virginia Commonwealth	L	65-71	32%
Feb 11, 2020	233	Fordham	W	72-55	91%
Feb 14, 2020	115	@ St. Bonaventure	W	65-62	60%
Feb 18, 2020	221	@ Saint Joseph's	W	75-65	80%
Feb 22, 2020	86	Rhode Island	W	72-66	70%
Feb 25, 2020	189	La Salle	W	77-62	89%
Feb 28, 2020	60	@ Dayton	L	66-68	43%
Mar 03, 2020	105	@ Richmond	W	71-68	59%
Mar 06, 2020	28	Virginia Commonwealth	W	69-68	51%
Projected Record						20 - 8	13 - 5

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.6	3.2	7.1	7.9	5.0	1.6		25.4	1st
2nd												0.1	1.2	5.2	8.2	5.3	1.3	0.1			21.4	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.1	1.1	4.8	6.1	2.9	0.4	0.0				15.4	3rd
4th										0.0	0.6	3.5	5.2	1.9	0.2	0.0					11.4	4th
5th									0.0	0.4	2.5	3.7	1.6	0.1							8.3	5th
6th								0.0	0.1	1.4	2.9	1.6	0.1	0.0							6.2	6th
7th								0.1	0.7	2.1	1.1	0.2	0.0								4.2	7th
8th							0.0	0.3	1.4	1.1	0.2	0.0									3.0	8th
9th							0.2	0.7	0.9	0.2	0.0										2.1	9th
10th					0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.3	0.0											1.3	10th
11th					0.0	0.1	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0											0.6	11th
12th				0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0													0.5	12th
13th			0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0														0.2	13th
14th		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0															0.1	14th

Total		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	1.0	1.8	3.5	5.3	7.3	10.2	13.0	13.9	14.6	12.7	9.2	5.0	1.6			Total

Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	1.6		1.6
17-1	98.9%	5.0		4.6	0.4
16-2	85.6%	7.9		5.9	1.9	0.1
15-3	55.6%	7.1		3.6	2.9	0.6	0.0
14-4	22.1%	3.2		0.9	1.5	0.7	0.1	0.0
13-5	4.3%	0.6		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	0.2%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	25.4%	25.4		16.7	6.8	1.6	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	1.6%		99.8%	61.8%	38.0%	3.1		0.3	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.0		99.5%
17-1	5.0%		96.8%	50.3%	46.4%	4.9		0.2	0.5	0.8	0.9	0.8	0.5	0.5	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0					0.2		93.5%
16-2	9.2%		90.6%	40.8%	49.8%	7.1		0.0	0.1	0.4	0.8	1.1	1.1	1.1	1.0	0.9	0.8	0.7	0.2	0.0				0.9		84.1%
15-3	12.7%		76.5%	32.6%	43.8%	9.1			0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.7	0.9	1.2	1.6	1.8	2.0	0.8	0.1	0.0			3.0		65.1%
14-4	14.6%		55.7%	24.0%	31.7%	10.2					0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.6	1.0	1.6	2.7	1.4	0.1	0.0			6.5		41.7%
13-5	13.9%		34.9%	16.9%	18.1%	11.0						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.8	1.8	1.4	0.2	0.0			9.1		21.7%
12-6	13.0%		20.8%	12.2%	8.5%	11.5							0.0		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.8	1.2	0.3	0.0	0.0		10.3		9.7%
11-7	10.2%		10.8%	7.1%	3.7%	11.8							0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0		9.1		3.9%
10-8	7.3%		5.1%	4.5%	0.6%	12.4											0.0	0.0	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0		7.0		0.6%
9-9	5.3%		2.6%	2.6%	0.0%	12.9													0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		5.2		0.0%
8-10	3.5%		0.6%	0.6%		13.0												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		3.5
7-11	1.8%		1.4%	1.4%		13.4													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.8
6-12	1.0%		0.1%	0.1%		14.0														0.0		0.0		1.0
5-13	0.4%		0.1%	0.1%		14.0															0.0			0.4
4-14	0.2%																							0.2
3-15	0.1%																							0.1
2-16	0.0%																							0.0
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18

Total	100%		41.9%	20.1%	21.8%	8.7		0.6	1.1	1.6	2.1	2.4	2.7	2.9	3.2	4.0	5.5	8.6	5.8	1.1	0.2	0.0	0.0	58.1		27.3%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.3%	100.0%	1.7	51.2	32.6	11.0	2.7	2.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.1%	100.0%	2.5	4.9	43.1	49.6	2.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	100.0%	2.3	31.6	35.8	1.1	31.6