Preseason Rankings
Jacksonville
Atlantic Sun
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating-7.9#298
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace76.1#32
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-4.2#295
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.7#281
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 5.0% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.3 15.5
.500 or above 19.5% 53.8% 19.1%
.500 or above in Conference 31.1% 55.8% 30.8%
Conference Champion 1.7% 5.5% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 16.5% 4.4% 16.6%
First Four0.9% 1.1% 0.9%
First Round1.5% 3.9% 1.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Xavier (Away) - 1.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 62 - 11
Quad 49 - 811 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 23   @ Xavier L 61-85 1%    
  Nov 11, 2019 108   Bowling Green L 73-85 14%    
  Nov 15, 2019 263   @ Umass Lowell L 78-83 32%    
  Nov 16, 2019 193   Dartmouth L 71-77 30%    
  Nov 17, 2019 304   Merrimack W 75-74 52%    
  Nov 21, 2019 215   Western Carolina L 78-80 43%    
  Nov 25, 2019 302   @ Campbell L 71-74 41%    
  Nov 30, 2019 325   @ N.C. A&T L 72-73 48%    
  Dec 04, 2019 27   @ Marquette L 66-89 2%    
  Dec 07, 2019 326   Bethune-Cookman W 81-76 68%    
  Dec 18, 2019 319   @ Presbyterian L 76-77 47%    
  Dec 20, 2019 81   @ Clemson L 61-79 7%    
  Dec 30, 2019 323   South Carolina St. W 80-75 67%    
  Jan 02, 2020 313   @ North Alabama L 73-75 44%    
  Jan 09, 2020 175   NJIT L 71-75 37%    
  Jan 11, 2020 87   @ Liberty L 60-77 8%    
  Jan 16, 2020 155   North Florida L 80-85 32%    
  Jan 18, 2020 336   Stetson W 81-74 72%    
  Jan 23, 2020 177   @ Lipscomb L 76-86 21%    
  Jan 25, 2020 320   @ Kennesaw St. L 75-76 47%    
  Jan 30, 2020 257   Florida Gulf Coast W 75-74 51%    
  Feb 01, 2020 313   North Alabama W 76-72 63%    
  Feb 06, 2020 87   Liberty L 63-74 19%    
  Feb 08, 2020 175   @ NJIT L 68-78 20%    
  Feb 13, 2020 155   @ North Florida L 77-88 18%    
  Feb 20, 2020 177   Lipscomb L 79-83 38%    
  Feb 22, 2020 320   Kennesaw St. W 78-73 66%    
  Feb 27, 2020 257   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 71-77 32%    
  Feb 29, 2020 336   @ Stetson W 78-77 54%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 6 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 4.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.0 2.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 7.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 3.7 4.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 10.7 4th
5th 0.2 2.4 5.9 5.4 1.5 0.1 15.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.8 7.3 4.8 1.3 0.1 17.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 5.1 7.4 3.8 0.7 0.0 17.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 5.1 5.3 2.5 0.3 0.0 14.8 8th
9th 0.6 2.3 3.6 2.6 0.9 0.1 10.0 9th
Total 0.6 2.4 5.2 8.5 11.7 13.9 13.9 12.7 10.9 7.8 5.5 3.6 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-2 84.5% 0.3    0.3 0.1
13-3 54.4% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
12-4 25.9% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-5 6.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 93.3% 93.3% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.1% 29.1% 29.1% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-2 0.4% 21.5% 21.5% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-3 1.0% 15.0% 15.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9
12-4 1.9% 11.8% 11.8% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.7
11-5 3.6% 7.3% 7.3% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.3
10-6 5.5% 6.1% 6.1% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 5.1
9-7 7.8% 3.7% 3.7% 15.9 0.0 0.3 7.5
8-8 10.9% 1.5% 1.5% 15.9 0.0 0.2 10.7
7-9 12.7% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2 12.5
6-10 13.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 13.8
5-11 13.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 13.8
4-12 11.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.7
3-13 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 8.5
2-14 5.2% 5.2
1-15 2.4% 2.4
0-16 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 98.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%