Preseason Rankings
Penn
Ivy League
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.4#98
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.3#188
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.6#126
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.8#93
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 1.1% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 0.8% 2.4% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.5% 32.9% 19.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.4% 6.8% 1.5%
Average Seed 12.2 11.2 12.6
.500 or above 74.3% 91.0% 70.2%
.500 or above in Conference 80.8% 89.7% 78.6%
Conference Champion 26.1% 35.1% 23.9%
Last Place in Conference 3.2% 1.1% 3.7%
First Four1.1% 2.4% 0.8%
First Round22.0% 31.8% 19.6%
Second Round5.2% 9.3% 4.2%
Sweet Sixteen1.6% 3.3% 1.2%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.7% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama (Away) - 19.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 3
Quad 21 - 22 - 6
Quad 35 - 37 - 9
Quad 47 - 115 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 45   @ Alabama L 67-76 20%    
  Nov 09, 2019 229   @ Rice W 78-73 68%    
  Nov 13, 2019 189   La Salle W 76-67 80%    
  Nov 19, 2019 261   @ Lafayette W 78-71 73%    
  Nov 23, 2019 36   @ Providence L 65-75 18%    
  Nov 28, 2019 94   Central Florida L 66-67 49%    
  Dec 04, 2019 11   @ Villanova L 60-75 10%    
  Dec 30, 2019 337   @ Howard W 83-69 87%    
  Jan 04, 2020 143   Princeton W 72-66 71%    
  Jan 10, 2020 143   @ Princeton W 69-68 51%    
  Jan 18, 2020 221   Saint Joseph's W 77-66 82%    
  Jan 25, 2020 83   Temple W 72-71 53%    
  Jan 31, 2020 69   Harvard L 70-71 47%    
  Feb 01, 2020 193   Dartmouth W 75-65 78%    
  Feb 07, 2020 173   @ Columbia W 73-71 57%    
  Feb 08, 2020 282   @ Cornell W 74-66 75%    
  Feb 14, 2020 171   Brown W 77-69 75%    
  Feb 15, 2020 144   Yale W 78-72 70%    
  Feb 21, 2020 193   @ Dartmouth W 72-68 60%    
  Feb 22, 2020 69   @ Harvard L 68-74 30%    
  Feb 28, 2020 144   @ Yale W 76-75 51%    
  Feb 29, 2020 171   @ Brown W 74-72 55%    
  Mar 06, 2020 282   Cornell W 77-63 87%    
  Mar 07, 2020 173   Columbia W 76-68 74%    
Projected Record 14 - 10 9 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.6 7.3 7.8 5.0 1.6 26.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.9 6.8 9.0 5.0 1.2 23.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 6.7 6.3 1.9 0.1 17.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 5.7 4.1 0.8 0.0 12.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 4.3 2.8 0.3 0.0 9.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.6 1.9 0.2 6.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 1.0 0.1 3.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.6 8th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.2 5.3 8.2 10.7 12.9 14.5 14.5 12.4 9.0 5.0 1.6 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 1.6    1.6
13-1 100.0% 5.0    4.7 0.3
12-2 86.3% 7.8    6.0 1.8 0.0
11-3 58.8% 7.3    3.8 3.0 0.5 0.0
10-4 24.9% 3.6    1.0 1.7 0.8 0.1
9-5 5.0% 0.7    0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 26.1% 26.1 17.2 7.1 1.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 1.6% 79.9% 63.8% 16.1% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 44.4%
13-1 5.0% 69.2% 55.5% 13.6% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.6 30.6%
12-2 9.0% 48.1% 42.1% 6.0% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.1 4.7 10.4%
11-3 12.4% 37.4% 34.5% 2.9% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 7.7 4.4%
10-4 14.5% 26.5% 25.9% 0.6% 13.1 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.0 10.7 0.8%
9-5 14.5% 19.9% 19.8% 0.1% 13.6 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.1 11.7 0.1%
8-6 12.9% 11.9% 11.9% 0.1% 14.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.1 11.4 0.1%
7-7 10.7% 4.1% 4.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 10.3
6-8 8.2% 0.4% 0.4% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.2
5-9 5.3% 5.3
4-10 3.2% 3.2
3-11 1.6% 1.6
2-12 0.7% 0.7
1-13 0.2% 0.2
0-14 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 22.5% 20.6% 1.9% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 2.3 6.0 5.4 3.5 1.9 0.3 77.5 2.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.4 39.5 2.5 39.5 18.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 4.5 50.0 50.0