Preseason Rankings
New Mexico
Mountain West
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.0#92
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace79.4#17
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.7#42
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#188
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.6% 0.7% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.4% 1.6% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.7% 17.1% 7.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.8% 6.7% 1.2%
Average Seed 10.7 10.6 11.9
.500 or above 83.3% 86.5% 65.5%
.500 or above in Conference 80.0% 82.1% 68.6%
Conference Champion 13.2% 14.3% 7.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.6% 1.6%
First Four2.6% 3.0% 0.7%
First Round14.5% 15.7% 7.3%
Second Round5.1% 5.7% 1.9%
Sweet Sixteen1.6% 1.7% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Northridge (Home) - 84.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 21 - 3
Quad 22 - 43 - 6
Quad 36 - 49 - 10
Quad 410 - 120 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 208   Cal St. Northridge W 93-82 85%    
  Nov 13, 2019 167   Green Bay W 94-86 77%    
  Nov 16, 2019 316   McNeese St. W 87-70 94%    
  Nov 19, 2019 169   @ UTEP W 79-77 59%    
  Nov 21, 2019 55   @ New Mexico St. L 75-83 25%    
  Nov 25, 2019 25   Auburn L 79-87 25%    
  Dec 01, 2019 198   Montana W 84-74 82%    
  Dec 04, 2019 90   Boise St. W 80-77 59%    
  Dec 07, 2019 275   @ Wyoming W 84-76 77%    
  Dec 14, 2019 55   New Mexico St. L 78-80 45%    
  Dec 17, 2019 137   Grand Canyon W 84-78 71%    
  Dec 22, 2019 292   Houston Baptist W 100-85 91%    
  Dec 29, 2019 266   UC Davis W 82-68 88%    
  Jan 01, 2020 330   @ San Jose St. W 89-76 86%    
  Jan 07, 2020 118   Fresno St. W 81-76 65%    
  Jan 11, 2020 170   Air Force W 83-74 76%    
  Jan 15, 2020 179   @ Colorado St. W 82-79 62%    
  Jan 18, 2020 146   @ UNLV W 81-80 54%    
  Jan 21, 2020 330   San Jose St. W 92-73 94%    
  Jan 25, 2020 95   @ Nevada L 82-85 42%    
  Jan 29, 2020 77   San Diego St. W 78-77 53%    
  Feb 01, 2020 118   @ Fresno St. L 78-79 46%    
  Feb 08, 2020 275   Wyoming W 87-73 88%    
  Feb 11, 2020 77   @ San Diego St. L 75-80 34%    
  Feb 15, 2020 146   UNLV W 84-77 72%    
  Feb 18, 2020 95   Nevada W 85-82 61%    
  Feb 23, 2020 90   @ Boise St. L 77-80 40%    
  Feb 26, 2020 170   @ Air Force W 80-77 58%    
  Feb 29, 2020 34   Utah St. L 80-84 39%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.5 3.9 3.2 2.0 0.6 13.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.9 5.0 5.5 2.9 0.7 0.1 16.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.3 5.8 4.6 1.4 0.1 0.0 15.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.3 5.6 3.7 0.7 0.0 13.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.0 5.5 2.8 0.4 0.0 12.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.3 2.4 0.3 0.0 10.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.2 1.9 0.2 8.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.6 2.0 0.9 0.1 5.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.1 3.3 5.5 7.2 9.9 11.8 12.4 12.0 11.2 9.4 6.9 3.9 2.1 0.6 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 96.6% 2.0    1.8 0.2
16-2 83.0% 3.2    2.3 0.9 0.0
15-3 56.4% 3.9    2.0 1.6 0.3 0.0
14-4 26.7% 2.5    0.9 1.0 0.5 0.1
13-5 8.0% 0.9    0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.2% 13.2 7.8 4.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 96.7% 54.2% 42.5% 4.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.9%
17-1 2.1% 84.7% 41.2% 43.5% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 73.9%
16-2 3.9% 64.9% 34.6% 30.4% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.4 46.4%
15-3 6.9% 45.5% 24.2% 21.3% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 3.7 28.1%
14-4 9.4% 28.1% 19.2% 8.8% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 6.7 10.9%
13-5 11.2% 18.9% 14.9% 4.0% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 9.1 4.7%
12-6 12.0% 10.8% 9.8% 1.0% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 10.7 1.1%
11-7 12.4% 6.3% 6.2% 0.1% 12.9 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 11.6 0.1%
10-8 11.8% 3.9% 3.8% 0.1% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 11.4 0.1%
9-9 9.9% 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.6 0.0%
8-10 7.2% 1.1% 1.1% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.1
7-11 5.5% 1.4% 1.4% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.4
6-12 3.3% 0.5% 0.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3
5-13 2.1% 0.8% 0.8% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
4-14 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.2
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 15.7% 10.5% 5.2% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.5 3.5 4.4 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 84.3 5.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 2.3 17.7 61.5 3.1 15.6 1.0 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 3.5 45.2 3.2 3.2 48.4