Preseason Rankings
UTEP
Conference USA
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.4#169
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.3#162
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.6#253
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#111
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.1% 8.2% 4.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 1.1% 0.2%
Average Seed 12.7 12.2 13.0
.500 or above 44.2% 66.3% 36.8%
.500 or above in Conference 53.4% 65.7% 49.2%
Conference Champion 6.5% 10.4% 5.1%
Last Place in Conference 8.2% 4.4% 9.5%
First Four0.3% 0.8% 0.2%
First Round5.0% 7.9% 4.0%
Second Round0.7% 1.5% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico St. (Home) - 25.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 34 - 55 - 10
Quad 46 - 211 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2019 55   New Mexico St. L 65-72 25%    
  Nov 19, 2019 92   New Mexico L 77-79 41%    
  Dec 03, 2019 55   @ New Mexico St. L 62-75 12%    
  Dec 07, 2019 343   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 73-57 92%    
  Dec 16, 2019 325   N.C. A&T W 74-61 87%    
  Dec 19, 2019 32   @ Houston L 60-75 9%    
  Dec 22, 2019 183   @ Hawaii L 66-68 43%    
  Jan 02, 2020 185   @ Florida International L 81-83 45%    
  Jan 04, 2020 163   @ Florida Atlantic L 66-69 39%    
  Jan 09, 2020 238   Southern Miss W 70-63 72%    
  Jan 11, 2020 116   Louisiana Tech L 67-68 46%    
  Jan 15, 2020 121   Texas San Antonio L 75-76 48%    
  Jan 18, 2020 121   @ Texas San Antonio L 72-79 29%    
  Jan 23, 2020 229   @ Rice W 75-74 50%    
  Jan 25, 2020 152   @ North Texas L 63-67 37%    
  Jan 30, 2020 174   Middle Tennessee W 70-67 61%    
  Feb 01, 2020 140   UAB W 67-66 56%    
  Feb 06, 2020 276   @ Charlotte W 66-63 60%    
  Feb 08, 2020 139   @ Old Dominion L 59-64 35%    
  Feb 13, 2020 76   Western Kentucky L 68-72 37%    
  Feb 15, 2020 188   Marshall W 81-76 64%    
Projected Record 10 - 11 7 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 2.0 2.4 1.2 0.2 6.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 3.0 2.4 0.6 0.0 6.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.4 2.9 0.6 0.0 7.3 3rd
4th 0.1 2.7 4.0 0.9 0.0 7.7 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 5.1 1.7 0.1 8.1 5th
6th 0.3 3.9 3.5 0.3 0.0 8.1 6th
7th 0.0 2.3 5.2 0.9 0.0 8.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 4.9 2.3 0.1 8.0 8th
9th 0.1 3.0 4.6 0.4 8.2 9th
10th 0.0 1.5 4.8 1.5 0.0 7.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 3.4 2.6 0.2 6.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 2.4 2.9 0.5 6.1 12th
13th 0.3 1.8 2.7 0.9 0.0 5.7 13th
14th 0.4 1.3 1.8 0.6 0.1 4.2 14th
Total 0.4 1.5 4.0 6.3 8.8 11.8 13.8 13.3 12.7 10.5 7.6 4.9 2.9 1.2 0.2 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
13-1 98.2% 1.2    1.0 0.2
12-2 80.2% 2.4    1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0
11-3 40.0% 2.0    0.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
10-4 8.9% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-5 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 6.5% 6.5 3.2 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.2% 66.7% 34.2% 32.5% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 49.5%
13-1 1.2% 44.1% 30.9% 13.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.7 19.1%
12-2 2.9% 32.4% 27.8% 4.5% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.0 6.3%
11-3 4.9% 18.6% 18.0% 0.5% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 4.0 0.7%
10-4 7.6% 11.5% 11.5% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 6.7 0.0%
9-5 10.5% 7.4% 7.4% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 9.7
8-6 12.7% 4.2% 4.2% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 12.2
7-7 13.3% 1.6% 1.6% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 13.1
6-8 13.8% 0.9% 0.9% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 13.7
5-9 11.8% 0.3% 0.3% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.7
4-10 8.8% 0.2% 0.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 8.8
3-11 6.3% 6.3
2-12 4.0% 4.0
1-13 1.5% 1.5
0-14 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 5.1% 4.7% 0.4% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.1 94.9 0.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.5 50.0 50.0
Lose Out 0.0%