Preseason Rankings
North Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.6#153
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.2#300
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#120
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#201
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.1% 34.0% 23.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.5% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 13.3 14.4
.500 or above 77.3% 92.7% 75.1%
.500 or above in Conference 83.0% 91.9% 81.8%
Conference Champion 33.0% 48.6% 30.8%
Last Place in Conference 2.7% 0.7% 2.9%
First Four2.5% 0.9% 2.7%
First Round24.1% 33.6% 22.8%
Second Round2.5% 5.9% 2.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 1.2% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kansas St. (Away) - 12.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 21 - 3
Quad 34 - 55 - 8
Quad 414 - 418 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 50   @ Kansas St. L 57-69 12%    
  Nov 11, 2019 327   Cal Poly W 77-63 90%    
  Nov 15, 2019 230   UT Rio Grande Valley W 74-70 66%    
  Nov 16, 2019 291   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi W 68-63 67%    
  Nov 17, 2019 196   Stony Brook W 72-69 59%    
  Nov 23, 2019 236   Utah Valley W 75-67 75%    
  Nov 26, 2019 338   @ Idaho W 73-63 82%    
  Dec 03, 2019 158   @ Indiana St. L 71-74 40%    
  Dec 07, 2019 71   East Tennessee St. L 69-73 37%    
  Dec 11, 2019 208   @ Cal St. Northridge W 77-76 52%    
  Dec 16, 2019 279   Montana St. W 81-71 81%    
  Dec 20, 2019 27   @ Marquette L 66-81 11%    
  Dec 29, 2019 305   @ Denver W 74-68 69%    
  Jan 02, 2020 283   Western Illinois W 76-65 82%    
  Jan 09, 2020 205   @ Oral Roberts W 74-73 52%    
  Jan 15, 2020 165   South Dakota W 72-68 63%    
  Jan 18, 2020 262   North Dakota W 77-68 78%    
  Jan 22, 2020 224   @ South Dakota St. W 76-75 53%    
  Jan 25, 2020 305   Denver W 77-65 84%    
  Jan 30, 2020 283   @ Western Illinois W 73-68 65%    
  Feb 01, 2020 241   @ Purdue Fort Wayne W 77-75 57%    
  Feb 05, 2020 195   @ Nebraska Omaha L 73-74 50%    
  Feb 08, 2020 205   Oral Roberts W 76-70 70%    
  Feb 14, 2020 241   Purdue Fort Wayne W 80-72 75%    
  Feb 19, 2020 165   @ South Dakota L 69-71 43%    
  Feb 22, 2020 262   @ North Dakota W 74-71 60%    
  Feb 27, 2020 224   South Dakota St. W 79-72 71%    
  Feb 29, 2020 195   Nebraska Omaha W 76-70 69%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 10 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.8 6.6 8.7 8.1 4.8 1.5 33.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 4.2 6.8 5.7 2.2 0.3 19.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.7 6.1 3.2 0.6 0.0 14.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.3 4.8 1.7 0.2 10.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.8 3.7 1.3 0.1 0.0 8.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.8 0.8 0.1 5.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.0 0.6 0.0 4.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.0 2.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.5 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.8 4.6 6.7 8.5 10.4 12.5 13.0 12.9 10.9 8.4 4.8 1.5 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.5    1.5
15-1 100.0% 4.8    4.7 0.1
14-2 96.0% 8.1    7.1 0.9 0.0
13-3 79.5% 8.7    6.0 2.5 0.2
12-4 51.3% 6.6    3.4 2.7 0.6 0.0
11-5 21.8% 2.8    0.8 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0
10-6 3.5% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 33.0% 33.0 23.4 7.5 1.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.5% 68.8% 66.9% 1.8% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 5.6%
15-1 4.8% 60.7% 60.4% 0.4% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.9 0.9%
14-2 8.4% 50.3% 50.0% 0.3% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.6 0.6 0.0 4.2 0.5%
13-3 10.9% 39.6% 39.6% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 1.2 0.3 6.6
12-4 12.9% 33.2% 33.2% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.6 0.6 8.6
11-5 13.0% 24.6% 24.6% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.1 9.8
10-6 12.5% 17.5% 17.5% 15.3 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.0 10.3
9-7 10.4% 12.6% 12.6% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 9.1
8-8 8.5% 9.9% 9.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 7.7
7-9 6.7% 8.1% 8.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 6.2
6-10 4.6% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2 4.5
5-11 2.8% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.0 2.8
4-12 1.6% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 1.6
3-13 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.8
2-14 0.3% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 25.1% 25.1% 0.1% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 2.0 4.3 6.4 6.3 5.3 74.9 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 4.4 84.8 6.1 6.1 3.0