IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	-6.7	#278
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	70.6	#127
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-2.1	#241

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-4.6	#305

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	5.3%	9.8%	5.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.3	14.3	15.3

.500 or above	34.0%	67.2%	33.3%
.500 or above in Conference	46.7%	66.4%	46.3%
Conference Champion	6.0%	14.2%	5.8%
Last Place in Conference	9.4%	3.6%	9.5%

First Four	1.7%	1.3%	1.7%
First Round	4.4%	8.9%	4.3%
Second Round	0.1%	0.5%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Arizona (Away) - 2.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 3	2 - 6	2 - 8
Quad 4	10 - 8	12 - 16

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2019	31	@ Arizona	L	62-84	2%
Nov 30, 2019	165	South Dakota	L	72-75	37%
Dec 04, 2019	266	UC Davis	W	70-68	57%
Dec 08, 2019	195	Nebraska Omaha	L	74-79	34%
Dec 14, 2019	236	@ Utah Valley	L	71-77	31%
Dec 19, 2019	296	@ UC Riverside	L	68-70	43%
Dec 21, 2019	117	@ Pepperdine	L	73-86	13%
Dec 28, 2019	198	@ Montana	L	69-76	26%
Dec 30, 2019	279	@ Montana St.	L	78-81	40%
Jan 04, 2020	191	Weber St.	L	78-80	45%
Jan 09, 2020	280	@ Sacramento St.	L	71-74	40%
Jan 11, 2020	335	Idaho St.	W	79-71	75%
Jan 16, 2020	226	@ Southern Utah	L	74-80	30%
Jan 18, 2020	214	@ Northern Colorado	L	68-75	28%
Jan 25, 2020	270	Portland St.	W	79-76	58%
Jan 27, 2020	280	Sacramento St.	W	74-71	60%
Feb 01, 2020	338	Idaho	W	76-67	77%
Feb 03, 2020	192	Eastern Washington	L	74-76	44%
Feb 06, 2020	335	@ Idaho St.	W	76-74	56%
Feb 08, 2020	191	@ Weber St.	L	75-83	26%
Feb 13, 2020	214	Northern Colorado	L	71-72	47%
Feb 15, 2020	226	Southern Utah	L	76-77	49%
Feb 20, 2020	338	@ Idaho	W	73-70	59%
Feb 22, 2020	192	@ Eastern Washington	L	71-79	27%
Feb 27, 2020	198	Montana	L	72-73	45%
Feb 29, 2020	279	Montana St.	W	81-78	60%
Mar 05, 2020	270	@ Portland St.	L	76-79	39%
Projected Record						11 - 16	9 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big Sky Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.2	0.8	1.4	1.6	1.2	0.6	0.2	0.1		6.0	1st
2nd												0.0	0.4	1.5	2.5	1.9	0.9	0.2	0.0				7.3	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.6	2.2	3.0	1.6	0.4	0.0	0.0					7.9	3rd
4th										0.1	0.7	3.0	3.6	1.5	0.4	0.0							9.2	4th
5th								0.0	0.1	0.9	3.1	3.9	1.6	0.2	0.0								9.8	5th
6th							0.0	0.1	1.1	3.6	4.3	1.4	0.2	0.0									10.6	6th
7th						0.0	0.1	1.4	4.0	4.2	1.4	0.1											11.3	7th
8th					0.0	0.3	1.8	3.9	3.9	1.5	0.2	0.0											11.5	8th
9th				0.1	0.5	2.2	4.0	3.1	1.1	0.1	0.0												11.0	9th
10th		0.0	0.3	1.0	2.5	2.8	2.1	0.6	0.1														9.5	10th
11th	0.1	0.5	1.3	1.6	1.4	0.7	0.2	0.0															5.9	11th

Total	0.1	0.6	1.6	2.7	4.5	6.0	8.2	9.1	10.1	10.4	9.8	9.0	7.9	6.5	5.2	3.7	2.5	1.3	0.6	0.2	0.1			Total

Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
19-1	100.0%	0.2		0.2	0.0
18-2	98.1%	0.6		0.6	0.0
17-3	88.1%	1.2		1.0	0.2	0.0
16-4	62.1%	1.6		1.0	0.5	0.1
15-5	38.2%	1.4		0.6	0.5	0.3	0.0
14-6	14.6%	0.8		0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1
13-7	2.9%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.1%	0.0						0.0	0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	6.0%	6.0		3.7	1.6	0.7	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.1%		51.6%	51.6%		12.8													0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0
19-1	0.2%		43.9%	43.9%		13.3													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1
18-2	0.6%		39.8%	39.8%		14.1												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.4
17-3	1.3%		30.5%	30.5%		14.3													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.9
16-4	2.5%		23.7%	23.7%		14.7													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.1	1.9
15-5	3.7%		21.3%	21.3%		15.2														0.0	0.1	0.4	0.3	2.9
14-6	5.2%		14.0%	14.0%		15.5														0.0	0.0	0.3	0.4	4.4
13-7	6.5%		10.8%	10.8%		15.7															0.0	0.2	0.5	5.8
12-8	7.9%		8.3%	8.3%		15.8															0.0	0.1	0.6	7.3
11-9	9.0%		4.3%	4.3%		15.9																0.0	0.4	8.6
10-10	9.8%		2.7%	2.7%		16.0																0.0	0.3	9.5
9-11	10.4%		2.1%	2.1%		16.0																0.0	0.2	10.1
8-12	10.1%		0.9%	0.9%		16.0																	0.1	10.0
7-13	9.1%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	9.1
6-14	8.2%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	8.2
5-15	6.0%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	6.0
4-16	4.5%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	4.5
3-17	2.7%																							2.7
2-18	1.6%																							1.6
1-19	0.6%																							0.6
0-20	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		5.3%	5.3%	0.0%	15.3												0.0	0.0	0.3	0.6	1.5	2.9	94.7		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%