Preseason Rankings
San Diego St.
Mountain West
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+6.8#77
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.5#214
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.1#111
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.7#54
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.4% 1.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 3.2% 3.4% 0.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.4% 25.5% 10.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 10.8% 11.5% 2.8%
Average Seed 10.1 10.0 11.2
.500 or above 87.3% 89.0% 65.4%
.500 or above in Conference 83.5% 84.7% 68.5%
Conference Champion 17.0% 17.6% 8.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.3% 1.1%
First Four4.2% 4.4% 1.3%
First Round22.4% 23.3% 10.0%
Second Round8.9% 9.4% 3.5%
Sweet Sixteen2.8% 2.9% 1.3%
Elite Eight0.9% 0.9% 0.3%
Final Four0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Southern (Home) - 92.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 23 - 34 - 6
Quad 37 - 310 - 9
Quad 49 - 119 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 265   Texas Southern W 87-71 93%    
  Nov 09, 2019 67   @ BYU L 74-78 35%    
  Nov 13, 2019 137   Grand Canyon W 74-66 78%    
  Nov 20, 2019 164   @ San Diego W 69-65 64%    
  Nov 22, 2019 210   LIU Brooklyn W 80-67 87%    
  Nov 25, 2019 272   Tennessee St. W 80-64 92%    
  Nov 28, 2019 37   Creighton L 70-74 35%    
  Dec 04, 2019 179   @ Colorado St. W 73-68 68%    
  Dec 08, 2019 330   San Jose St. W 82-61 96%    
  Dec 21, 2019 110   Utah W 72-69 61%    
  Dec 28, 2019 327   Cal Poly W 79-59 96%    
  Jan 01, 2020 118   Fresno St. W 72-65 71%    
  Jan 04, 2020 34   @ Utah St. L 67-75 25%    
  Jan 08, 2020 275   @ Wyoming W 74-64 80%    
  Jan 11, 2020 90   Boise St. W 71-66 65%    
  Jan 14, 2020 118   @ Fresno St. W 69-68 52%    
  Jan 18, 2020 95   Nevada W 75-70 67%    
  Jan 21, 2020 275   Wyoming W 77-61 91%    
  Jan 26, 2020 146   @ UNLV W 72-69 59%    
  Jan 29, 2020 92   @ New Mexico L 77-78 47%    
  Feb 01, 2020 34   Utah St. L 70-72 44%    
  Feb 08, 2020 170   @ Air Force W 71-67 64%    
  Feb 11, 2020 92   New Mexico W 80-75 66%    
  Feb 16, 2020 90   @ Boise St. L 68-69 44%    
  Feb 22, 2020 146   UNLV W 75-66 77%    
  Feb 25, 2020 179   Colorado St. W 76-65 82%    
  Feb 29, 2020 95   @ Nevada L 72-73 48%    
Projected Record 18 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.1 5.0 4.7 2.7 0.7 17.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.5 6.2 2.9 0.6 17.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.0 6.2 4.6 1.4 0.1 15.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.1 5.8 3.7 0.8 0.0 14.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.7 4.8 2.8 0.4 0.0 11.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.0 2.3 0.3 0.0 9.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.5 1.8 2.9 1.4 0.2 0.0 6.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 4.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 2.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 2.9 4.2 6.5 8.7 10.7 12.2 12.7 11.8 10.7 8.0 5.3 2.7 0.7 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 100.0% 2.7    2.5 0.2
16-2 88.3% 4.7    3.6 1.1 0.0
15-3 61.9% 5.0    2.8 1.9 0.3 0.0
14-4 28.7% 3.1    1.1 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 7.3% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.0% 17.0 10.7 4.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 99.6% 54.8% 44.8% 4.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.2%
17-1 2.7% 92.6% 51.2% 41.4% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 84.9%
16-2 5.3% 80.9% 41.5% 39.4% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.0 67.3%
15-3 8.0% 60.8% 32.7% 28.1% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.8 1.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 3.2 41.7%
14-4 10.7% 42.5% 24.6% 17.9% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 6.2 23.7%
13-5 11.8% 26.6% 17.7% 8.9% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 8.7 10.8%
12-6 12.7% 14.9% 12.2% 2.8% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 10.8 3.1%
11-7 12.2% 10.9% 10.4% 0.5% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 10.9 0.5%
10-8 10.7% 6.8% 6.4% 0.4% 12.8 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 10.0 0.4%
9-9 8.7% 3.4% 3.4% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.4
8-10 6.5% 1.7% 1.7% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.4
7-11 4.2% 1.5% 1.5% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1
6-12 2.9% 0.5% 0.5% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9
5-13 1.7% 0.1% 0.1% 14.7 0.0 0.0 1.7
4-14 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 0.7
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 24.4% 15.3% 9.2% 10.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.7 2.5 5.9 6.0 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 75.6 10.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.2 27.1 32.7 33.1 6.8 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 3.7 1.2 19.8 39.5 18.5 2.5 1.2 17.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 4.6 5.7 2.9 51.4 40.0