Pre-tourney Rankings
American Athletic
2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
6 Houston 100.0%   2   23 - 3 14 - 3 23 - 3 14 - 3 +19.0      +11.5 6 +7.5 19 62.7 316 +16.4 8 +13.4 2
32 Memphis 13.2%   16 - 8 11 - 4 16 - 8 11 - 4 +12.5      +1.9 120 +10.6 2 77.8 25 +8.8 69 +10.6 4
57 SMU 26.2%   11 - 5 7 - 4 11 - 5 7 - 4 +9.5      +4.7 66 +4.8 57 71.1 122 +10.7 49 +11.3 3
67 Wichita St. 74.2%   10   14 - 5 11 - 2 14 - 5 11 - 2 +8.3      +5.5 47 +2.8 96 67.7 210 +12.6 37 +18.0 1
99 Central Florida 0.0%   11 - 12 8 - 10 11 - 12 8 - 10 +5.3      +2.6 105 +2.6 101 66.8 233 +6.5 90 +4.4 7
110 Cincinnati 0.0%   12 - 11 8 - 6 12 - 11 8 - 6 +4.4      +1.0 145 +3.4 79 74.4 67 +6.8 86 +7.2 5
117 Tulsa 0.0%   9 - 12 7 - 9 9 - 12 7 - 9 +3.4      +0.3 165 +3.0 90 64.7 283 +2.7 130 +5.1 6
134 Temple 0.0%   5 - 11 4 - 10 5 - 11 4 - 10 +2.1      0.0 176 +2.1 110 69.3 173 -0.9 178 -0.2 9
143 Tulane 0.0%   10 - 13 4 - 12 10 - 13 4 - 12 +1.1      -1.7 222 +2.8 100 67.7 211 +1.5 145 -0.4 10
165 South Florida 0.0%   8 - 13 4 - 10 8 - 13 4 - 10 +0.2      -1.1 204 +1.3 135 66.4 245 +1.9 141 +0.9 8
170 East Carolina 0.0%   7 - 11 2 - 10 7 - 11 2 - 10 -0.1      -2.4 240 +2.3 103 68.9 180 -0.9 180 -4.5 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Houston 1.0 100.0
Memphis 2.0 100.0
SMU 6.0 100.0
Wichita St. 2.0 100.0
Central Florida 4.0 100.0
Cincinnati 4.0 100.0
Tulsa 6.0 100.0
Temple 8.0 100.0
Tulane 8.0 100.0
South Florida 8.0 100.0
East Carolina 11.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Houston 14 - 6 100.0
Memphis 11 - 9 100.0
SMU 7 - 13 100.0
Wichita St. 11 - 9 100.0
Central Florida 8 - 12 100.0
Cincinnati 8 - 12 100.0
Tulsa 7 - 13 100.0
Temple 4 - 16 100.0
Tulane 4 - 16 100.0
South Florida 4 - 16 100.0
East Carolina 2 - 18 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Houston 100.0% 100.0
Memphis
SMU
Wichita St.
Central Florida
Cincinnati
Tulsa
Temple
Tulane
South Florida
East Carolina


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Houston 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 2   4.3 43.2 34.7 15.1 2.6 0.2 0.0
Memphis 13.2% 0.0% 13.2% 0.0 0.2 3.0 9.3 0.7 86.8 13.2%
SMU 26.2% 0.0% 26.2% 0.0 0.5 7.9 17.0 0.8 73.8 26.2%
Wichita St. 74.2% 0.0% 74.2% 10   0.0 0.7 12.3 36.4 23.8 1.1 25.8 74.2%
Central Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Cincinnati 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Tulsa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Temple 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Tulane 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
South Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
East Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Houston 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 93.1% 67.4% 42.0% 21.3% 10.7% 4.5%
Memphis 13.2% 12.1% 8.4% 3.7% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
SMU 26.2% 23.2% 14.3% 4.5% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Wichita St. 74.2% 5.7% 71.1% 21.7% 4.5% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cincinnati 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulsa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Temple 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.1 14.8 58.6 24.7 1.9
1st Round 100.0% 1.9 21.6 63.5 14.5 0.5
2nd Round 95.1% 1.2 5.0 68.7 24.8 1.5 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 70.1% 0.8 29.9 65.3 4.7 0.1
Elite Eight 43.1% 0.4 56.9 42.4 0.8 0.0
Final Four 21.7% 0.2 78.3 21.6 0.1
Final Game 10.8% 0.1 89.2 10.8
Champion 4.5% 0.0 95.5 4.5