Preseason Rankings
Summit League
2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
100 South Dakota St. 41.4%   14   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 7 12 - 4 +4.8      +5.3 50 -0.5 184 68.6 191 0.0 1 0.0 1
165 North Dakota St. 14.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 11 11 - 7 -0.5      +0.3 163 -0.7 194 64.5 289 0.0 1 0.0 1
178 Oral Roberts 13.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 11 9 - 7 -1.0      +2.4 110 -3.4 273 72.9 74 0.0 1 0.0 1
196 Nebraska Omaha 9.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 13 9 - 7 -2.3      +0.8 145 -3.0 262 70.8 123 0.0 1 0.0 1
206 South Dakota 8.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 13 10 - 9 -3.1      +0.1 171 -3.2 268 72.0 90 0.0 1 0.0 1
227 Purdue Fort Wayne 0.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 12 0 - 0 -4.2      -3.0 258 -1.2 210 68.4 196 0.0 1 0.0 1
248 North Dakota 5.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 13 8 - 10 -5.4      -1.6 221 -3.8 285 70.2 137 0.0 1 0.0 1
275 UMKC 3.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 13 7 - 10 -6.4      -4.6 297 -1.9 225 62.9 312 0.0 1 0.0 1
305 Denver 2.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 15 6 - 10 -8.4      -4.1 290 -4.3 297 74.1 56 0.0 1 0.0 1
333 Western Illinois 0.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 4 - 16 3 - 13 -13.3      -4.9 306 -8.4 342 75.2 45 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
South Dakota St. 2.3 40.0 26.6 15.3 8.7 5.0 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.1
North Dakota St. 3.0 27.8 19.2 15.2 11.5 9.0 6.5 4.2 2.2 1.0
Oral Roberts 4.0 11.5 15.3 16.8 17.5 15.1 11.0 7.4 4.1 1.4
Nebraska Omaha 4.5 8.2 11.9 14.8 16.3 15.3 13.8 10.6 7.0 2.3
South Dakota 3.8 16.9 16.6 15.2 13.1 11.7 9.7 7.2 5.3 2.2
Purdue Fort Wayne 9.9 9.5 90.5
North Dakota 5.1 6.1 8.9 11.9 13.3 14.9 15.2 14.2 10.5 4.8
UMKC 5.6 3.7 6.6 9.1 11.7 14.5 16.2 16.8 13.6 7.7
Denver 6.6 1.2 2.6 4.8 7.1 10.2 14.5 19.1 22.9 17.7
Western Illinois 7.9 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.8 3.7 7.3 13.7 25.2 47.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
South Dakota St. 12 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.5 6.1 8.8 11.8 15.1 16.7 15.8 12.6 5.9
North Dakota St. 11 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.3 3.5 5.4 7.0 8.7 10.1 11.5 11.8 11.0 10.0 7.9 5.1
Oral Roberts 9 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.4 4.1 6.8 9.2 11.5 13.2 13.5 12.0 10.5 7.4 4.6 2.4 0.7
Nebraska Omaha 9 - 7 0.0 0.4 1.0 2.3 4.0 6.4 8.9 10.6 12.4 13.0 12.2 10.5 8.2 5.3 3.0 1.4 0.4
South Dakota 10 - 6 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.6 3.0 4.3 6.0 8.4 8.9 10.0 10.9 10.9 9.8 8.6 6.6 4.6 3.1
Purdue Fort Wayne 0 - 16 100.0
North Dakota 8 - 8 0.2 0.8 2.2 4.3 6.4 8.7 10.8 11.9 11.8 11.1 10.0 8.1 5.7 3.9 2.2 1.2 0.4
UMKC 7 - 9 0.5 1.6 3.8 5.7 8.3 10.2 11.9 12.4 11.9 10.1 8.2 6.2 4.3 2.5 1.5 0.6 0.1
Denver 6 - 10 1.5 4.7 8.3 11.3 12.6 13.2 12.5 11.0 8.6 6.4 4.4 2.9 1.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
Western Illinois 3 - 13 7.2 14.0 17.7 17.2 14.0 10.9 8.1 5.2 3.0 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
South Dakota St. 40.0% 29.0 9.0 1.7 0.2 0.0
North Dakota St. 27.8% 19.4 6.9 1.3 0.2 0.0
Oral Roberts 11.5% 6.7 3.7 0.9 0.2 0.0
Nebraska Omaha 8.2% 4.5 2.7 0.9 0.2 0.0
South Dakota 16.9% 11.0 4.9 1.0 0.1 0.0
Purdue Fort Wayne
North Dakota 6.1% 3.5 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
UMKC 3.7% 1.9 1.3 0.4 0.1
Denver 1.2% 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
Western Illinois 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
South Dakota St. 41.4% 40.5% 0.9% 14   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.0 2.0 5.8 10.2 9.5 6.8 3.7 58.6 1.5%
North Dakota St. 16.7% 16.5% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.6 3.8 4.5 4.4 83.3 0.2%
Oral Roberts 13.5% 13.4% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.9 2.9 3.4 4.3 86.5 0.1%
Nebraska Omaha 9.6% 9.5% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.8 2.6 3.6 90.4 0.1%
South Dakota 9.2% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.7 2.6 3.8 90.8 0.0%
Purdue Fort Wayne 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.1%
North Dakota 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.9 94.9 0.0%
UMKC 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.9 96.6 0.0%
Denver 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.3 98.0 0.0%
Western Illinois 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
South Dakota St. 41.4% 1.9% 40.6% 8.2% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
North Dakota St. 16.7% 2.4% 15.6% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oral Roberts 13.5% 2.7% 12.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 9.6% 2.3% 8.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota 9.2% 2.3% 8.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Purdue Fort Wayne 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota 5.1% 2.1% 4.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UMKC 3.4% 1.4% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Denver 2.0% 1.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Illinois 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 98.7 1.3
1st Round 93.4% 0.9 6.6 92.6 0.8
2nd Round 12.1% 0.1 87.9 12.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 3.6% 0.0 96.4 3.6 0.0
Elite Eight 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.3
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0