Preseason Rankings
Arkansas St.
Sun Belt
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating-4.0#219
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.1#234
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.5#187
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.5#276
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 2.6% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.9 14.7
.500 or above 33.8% 42.0% 18.8%
.500 or above in Conference 36.9% 41.9% 27.5%
Conference Champion 2.6% 3.4% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 15.0% 11.8% 20.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round2.0% 2.6% 0.9%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jackson St. (Neutral) - 64.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 63 - 11
Quad 47 - 410 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 300   Jackson St. W 72-68 65%    
  Nov 26, 2020 285   Central Arkansas W 81-78 61%    
  Nov 27, 2020 61   @ Mississippi L 64-80 7%    
  Dec 02, 2020 40   @ Memphis L 67-85 5%    
  Dec 09, 2020 338   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 74-60 89%    
  Dec 16, 2020 136   @ Stephen F. Austin L 71-80 23%    
  Jan 01, 2021 278   @ Louisiana Monroe L 68-69 49%    
  Jan 02, 2021 278   @ Louisiana Monroe L 68-69 49%    
  Jan 08, 2021 143   @ Texas St. L 65-73 24%    
  Jan 09, 2021 143   @ Texas St. L 65-73 24%    
  Jan 15, 2021 278   Louisiana Monroe W 71-65 68%    
  Jan 16, 2021 278   Louisiana Monroe W 71-65 68%    
  Jan 22, 2021 185   @ Louisiana L 75-81 32%    
  Jan 23, 2021 185   @ Louisiana L 75-81 33%    
  Jan 29, 2021 156   Texas Arlington L 71-72 45%    
  Jan 30, 2021 156   Texas Arlington L 71-72 45%    
  Feb 05, 2021 185   Louisiana W 78-77 51%    
  Feb 06, 2021 185   Louisiana W 78-77 51%    
  Feb 10, 2021 127   Arkansas Little Rock L 73-76 40%    
  Feb 13, 2021 127   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 70-79 22%    
  Feb 19, 2021 143   Texas St. L 68-70 43%    
  Feb 20, 2021 143   Texas St. L 68-70 43%    
  Feb 26, 2021 156   @ Texas Arlington L 68-75 27%    
  Feb 27, 2021 156   @ Texas Arlington L 68-75 27%    
Projected Record 10 - 14 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.4 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.0 5.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 6.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.5 3.6 1.8 0.3 0.0 8.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.2 3.7 2.0 0.4 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.7 2.6 0.4 0.0 10.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.5 3.0 0.4 0.0 10.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.2 4.5 3.0 0.5 0.0 10.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 2.5 4.4 3.2 0.6 0.0 11.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.9 3.6 2.2 0.6 0.1 10.7 11th
12th 0.6 1.8 2.8 2.8 1.3 0.4 0.0 9.8 12th
Total 0.6 2.0 3.9 6.4 8.0 9.5 11.0 10.9 10.9 9.6 8.5 6.6 5.0 3.0 2.3 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-1 94.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 78.1% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
15-3 64.3% 0.7    0.5 0.2 0.0
14-4 35.8% 0.8    0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 13.6% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.6% 2.6 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 99.3% 93.4% 6.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 90.0%
16-2 0.5% 75.9% 75.9% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 1.1% 56.0% 55.9% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 0.2%
14-4 2.3% 25.7% 25.7% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 1.7
13-5 3.0% 7.2% 6.9% 0.3% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.8 0.3%
12-6 5.0% 0.5% 0.5% 15.4 0.0 0.0 5.0
11-7 6.6% 6.6
10-8 8.5% 8.5
9-9 9.6% 9.6
8-10 10.9% 10.9
7-11 10.9% 10.9
6-12 11.0% 11.0
5-13 9.5% 9.5
4-14 8.0% 8.0
3-15 6.4% 6.4
2-16 3.9% 3.9
1-17 2.0% 2.0
0-18 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.2 98.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%