Preseason Rankings
Jacksonville St.
Ohio Valley
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating-5.8#255
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.6#186
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-4.1#289
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#221
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.6% 8.3% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 13.7 14.9
.500 or above 32.1% 68.3% 31.1%
.500 or above in Conference 48.4% 73.4% 47.7%
Conference Champion 2.2% 8.5% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.4% 1.1% 5.5%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 0.4%
First Round2.4% 8.0% 2.2%
Second Round0.2% 1.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama (Away) - 2.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 62 - 10
Quad 49 - 511 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 32   @ Alabama L 69-90 3%    
  Nov 27, 2020 191   Florida Atlantic L 68-72 37%    
  Nov 29, 2020 187   @ South Alabama L 65-72 26%    
  Dec 04, 2020 171   @ Florida International L 72-80 24%    
  Dec 06, 2020 171   @ Florida International L 72-80 23%    
  Dec 13, 2020 304   @ Tennessee Tech L 68-69 48%    
  Dec 16, 2020 304   Tennessee Tech W 72-66 68%    
  Dec 30, 2020 324   Tennessee Martin W 80-71 78%    
  Jan 02, 2021 331   @ SIU Edwardsville W 73-69 62%    
  Jan 07, 2021 211   @ Eastern Kentucky L 75-80 32%    
  Jan 09, 2021 296   @ Morehead St. L 69-70 47%    
  Jan 14, 2021 269   Tennessee St. W 73-69 61%    
  Jan 16, 2021 114   Belmont L 70-77 29%    
  Jan 21, 2021 105   @ Murray St. L 64-77 13%    
  Jan 23, 2021 133   @ Austin Peay L 67-78 18%    
  Jan 28, 2021 296   Morehead St. W 72-67 66%    
  Jan 30, 2021 211   Eastern Kentucky W 78-77 52%    
  Feb 04, 2021 324   @ Tennessee Martin W 77-74 59%    
  Feb 06, 2021 325   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 72-69 59%    
  Feb 11, 2021 186   Eastern Illinois L 72-73 47%    
  Feb 13, 2021 331   SIU Edwardsville W 76-66 79%    
  Feb 18, 2021 114   @ Belmont L 67-80 15%    
  Feb 20, 2021 269   @ Tennessee St. L 70-72 42%    
  Feb 25, 2021 105   Murray St. L 67-74 28%    
  Feb 27, 2021 133   Austin Peay L 70-75 36%    
Projected Record 11 - 14 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.0 3.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 2.1 2.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 7.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.9 3.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 11.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.5 4.5 3.4 1.2 0.1 12.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.6 5.1 3.0 0.8 0.0 13.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.9 4.9 2.4 0.6 0.0 12.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 3.8 4.5 1.9 0.3 0.0 11.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.9 3.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 9.3 9th
10th 0.2 1.1 2.7 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 7.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.8 1.5 0.6 0.0 5.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.1 12th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 3.6 5.4 7.3 9.5 10.8 11.3 10.8 9.9 9.0 7.1 4.9 3.5 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 91.8% 0.4    0.3 0.1
17-3 61.6% 0.6    0.3 0.3 0.0
16-4 32.2% 0.6    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 10.1% 0.3    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.2% 2.2 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 75.8% 72.7% 3.0% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.1%
19-1 0.1% 50.0% 41.8% 8.2% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.0%
18-2 0.5% 26.0% 26.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
17-3 0.9% 29.0% 29.0% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7
16-4 1.7% 21.0% 21.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.4
15-5 3.5% 16.9% 16.9% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 2.9
14-6 4.9% 8.5% 8.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 4.5
13-7 7.1% 4.5% 4.5% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 6.8
12-8 9.0% 2.2% 2.2% 15.7 0.1 0.1 8.8
11-9 9.9% 1.4% 1.4% 15.7 0.0 0.1 9.8
10-10 10.8% 0.3% 0.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 10.7
9-11 11.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 11.2
8-12 10.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.8
7-13 9.5% 9.5
6-14 7.3% 7.3
5-15 5.4% 5.4
4-16 3.6% 3.6
3-17 2.2% 2.2
2-18 1.0% 1.0
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.8 97.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%