IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Norfolk St.
Mid-Eastern
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	-5.1	#244
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	67.4	#226
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-4.6	#298

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.5	#183

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	28.9%	38.5%	26.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	17.0	15.5	15.8

.500 or above	87.9%	95.0%	83.2%
.500 or above in Conference	90.2%	90.8%	89.8%
Conference Champion	71.6%	78.4%	67.1%
Last Place in Conference	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%

First Four	18.7%	18.5%	18.8%
First Round	21.8%	28.9%	17.2%
Second Round	0.6%	0.9%	0.4%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: James Madison (Away) - 39.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 2	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 3	1 - 1	1 - 2
Quad 4	17 - 6	17 - 8

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 27, 2020	249	@ James Madison	L	74-77	40%
Nov 28, 2020	270	Radford	W	66-65	54%
Dec 02, 2020	118	Old Dominion	L	63-68	31%
Dec 07, 2020	321	Hampton	W	79-70	78%
Dec 09, 2020	254	William & Mary	W	72-68	62%
Dec 18, 2020	253	UNC Wilmington	W	71-67	62%
Dec 29, 2020	309	@ N.C. A&T	W	74-73	52%
Jan 02, 2021	327	Coppin St.	W	78-68	80%
Jan 04, 2021	326	@ Howard	W	76-72	63%
Jan 06, 2021	323	Morgan St.	W	75-66	78%
Jan 09, 2021	330	Maryland Eastern Shore	W	62-52	82%
Jan 16, 2021	323	@ Morgan St.	W	72-69	61%
Jan 18, 2021	327	@ Coppin St.	W	75-71	63%
Jan 23, 2021	330	@ Maryland Eastern Shore	W	59-55	64%
Jan 30, 2021	327	Coppin St.	W	78-68	79%
Feb 03, 2021	330	Maryland Eastern Shore	W	62-52	81%
Feb 06, 2021	346	@ Delaware St.	W	82-72	81%
Feb 13, 2021	326	Howard	W	79-69	79%
Feb 15, 2021	346	@ Delaware St.	W	82-72	80%
Feb 17, 2021	330	@ Maryland Eastern Shore	W	59-55	64%
Feb 22, 2021	323	Morgan St.	W	75-66	77%
Feb 27, 2021	346	Delaware St.	W	85-69	91%
Mar 01, 2021	326	@ Howard	W	76-72	62%
Projected Record						16 - 7	12 - 5

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st									0.2	0.9	2.8	6.3	9.5	12.8	13.7	12.4	9.0		67.7	1st
2nd							0.0	0.1	1.1	2.7	4.1	3.7	2.8	1.0	0.3	0.0			15.8	2nd
3rd							0.1	0.7	1.8	1.9	1.3	0.3	0.1						6.0	3rd
4th						0.0	0.7	1.3	1.0	0.3	0.1	0.0							3.5	4th
5th					0.0	0.1	0.7	0.5	0.1	0.0									1.4	5th
6th					0.1	0.4	0.3	0.0											0.8	6th
7th				0.0	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0											0.4	7th
8th			0.0	0.1	0.2	0.0													0.3	8th
9th		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0													0.1	9th
10th		0.0	0.0	0.0															0.0	10th

Total		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.7	1.8	2.5	4.1	5.8	8.3	10.4	12.4	13.8	14.0	12.5	9.0			Total

Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	9.0		9.0
15-1	99.8%	12.4		12.3	0.1
14-2	98.1%	13.7		13.1	0.6
13-3	92.4%	12.8		11.4	1.3	0.0
12-4	77.0%	9.5		7.6	1.8	0.1
11-5	61.1%	6.3		4.1	2.0	0.2	0.0
10-6	34.1%	2.8		1.5	1.1	0.2	0.0
9-7	16.1%	0.9		0.3	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0
8-8	3.9%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0

Total	67.7%	67.7		59.3	7.4	0.8	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	9.0%		55.9%	55.9%		15.2													0.0	0.1	0.8	2.1	2.0	4.0
15-1	12.5%		46.2%	46.2%		15.7														0.0	0.2	1.4	4.1	6.7
14-2	14.0%		39.0%	39.0%		15.9															0.1	0.6	4.7	8.5
13-3	13.8%		32.5%	32.5%		16.0															0.0	0.1	4.4	9.3
12-4	12.4%		27.8%	27.8%		16.0																0.0	3.4	8.9
11-5	10.4%		21.3%	21.3%		16.0																0.0	2.2	8.2
10-6	8.3%		15.5%	15.5%		16.0																	1.3	7.0
9-7	5.8%		11.1%	11.1%		16.0																	0.6	5.2
8-8	4.1%		8.6%	8.6%		16.0																	0.4	3.8
7-9	2.5%		6.2%	6.2%		16.0																	0.2	2.4
6-10	1.8%		3.1%	3.1%		16.0																	0.1	1.7
5-11	0.7%		1.4%	1.4%		16.0																	0.0	0.7
4-12	0.5%																							0.5
3-13	0.2%																							0.2
2-14	0.1%																							0.1
1-15	0.0%																							0.0
0-16

Total	100%		28.9%	28.9%	0.0%	15.8													0.0	0.1	1.1	4.2	23.4	71.1		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.5%	100.0%	12.7						0.2			0.2	3.5	6.2	17.8	57.8	14.1	0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.1%