Preseason Rankings
South Dakota St.
Summit League
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.8#100
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.6#191
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.3#50
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#184
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 1.8% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 1.1% 4.0% 0.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 41.4% 53.4% 39.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.5% 6.4% 0.8%
Average Seed 13.2 11.7 13.5
.500 or above 91.7% 98.3% 90.6%
.500 or above in Conference 96.1% 98.8% 95.7%
Conference Champion 40.0% 51.6% 37.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.9% 1.5% 2.0%
First Round40.6% 52.7% 38.5%
Second Round8.2% 14.7% 7.0%
Sweet Sixteen2.7% 4.8% 2.3%
Elite Eight0.7% 1.2% 0.6%
Final Four0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: West Virginia (Neutral) - 14.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 35 - 36 - 6
Quad 411 - 117 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 7   West Virginia L 70-81 15%    
  Dec 02, 2020 71   @ Iowa St. L 76-82 29%    
  Dec 08, 2020 117   @ Bradley L 72-74 44%    
  Dec 10, 2020 165   North Dakota St. W 75-70 69%    
  Dec 11, 2020 248   North Dakota W 82-72 82%    
  Dec 12, 2020 206   South Dakota W 82-74 75%    
  Jan 08, 2021 333   Western Illinois W 90-69 97%    
  Jan 09, 2021 333   Western Illinois W 90-69 96%    
  Jan 15, 2021 196   @ Nebraska Omaha W 80-76 64%    
  Jan 16, 2021 196   @ Nebraska Omaha W 80-76 64%    
  Jan 22, 2021 248   North Dakota W 83-70 87%    
  Jan 23, 2021 248   North Dakota W 83-70 86%    
  Jan 29, 2021 305   @ Denver W 83-73 80%    
  Jan 30, 2021 305   @ Denver W 83-73 80%    
  Feb 05, 2021 206   South Dakota W 84-73 82%    
  Feb 06, 2021 206   South Dakota W 84-73 82%    
  Feb 13, 2021 178   @ Oral Roberts W 81-78 59%    
  Feb 14, 2021 178   @ Oral Roberts W 81-78 59%    
  Feb 19, 2021 165   @ North Dakota St. W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 20, 2021 165   @ North Dakota St. W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 26, 2021 275   UMKC W 77-63 88%    
  Feb 27, 2021 275   UMKC W 77-63 87%    
Projected Record 15 - 7 12 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.7 7.4 11.9 11.7 5.8 40.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 4.2 8.6 8.3 3.8 0.9 0.0 26.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 3.8 5.8 3.6 0.9 0.1 15.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.9 3.5 1.4 0.1 8.7 4th
5th 0.1 0.5 1.9 1.9 0.6 0.0 5.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.5 6.1 8.8 11.8 15.1 16.7 15.8 12.6 5.9 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 99.5% 5.8    5.7 0.2
15-1 93.1% 11.7    10.3 1.4 0.0
14-2 75.6% 11.9    8.5 3.2 0.2
13-3 44.7% 7.4    3.8 2.9 0.7 0.0
12-4 17.9% 2.7    0.7 1.3 0.6 0.1
11-5 3.2% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 40.0% 40.0 29.0 9.0 1.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 5.9% 79.7% 72.8% 6.9% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.2 25.4%
15-1 12.6% 69.8% 67.0% 2.8% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.4 3.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.8 8.5%
14-2 15.8% 55.7% 55.1% 0.7% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.8 3.2 2.6 0.8 0.0 7.0 1.5%
13-3 16.7% 45.8% 45.8% 0.1% 13.8 0.0 0.6 2.2 2.8 1.7 0.2 9.0 0.1%
12-4 15.1% 33.2% 33.2% 14.4 0.1 0.8 1.7 1.8 0.6 10.1
11-5 11.8% 27.0% 27.0% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 0.9 8.6
10-6 8.8% 21.7% 21.7% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 6.9
9-7 6.1% 13.1% 13.1% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 5.3
8-8 3.5% 11.4% 11.4% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 3.1
7-9 2.0% 8.7% 8.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2 1.8
6-10 1.0% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 1.0
5-11 0.5% 0.5
4-12 0.2% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-13 0.1% 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 41.4% 40.5% 0.9% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.0 2.0 5.8 10.2 9.5 6.8 3.7 58.6 1.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 4.2 5.7 6.1 19.9 31.4 19.3 7.8 6.8 3.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 91.7% 7.5 4.2 37.5 8.3 33.3 8.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 82.7% 9.3 17.3 46.2 1.9 15.4 1.9