IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
UC Irvine
Big West
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+3.3	#119
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	67.8	#213
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+0.7	#147

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+2.6	#98

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.3%	0.6%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.8%	1.5%	0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid	26.7%	40.6%	29.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.2%	1.8%	0.3%
Average Seed	17.1	12.7	13.9

.500 or above	89.0%	94.9%	84.1%
.500 or above in Conference	85.3%	83.2%	87.0%
Conference Champion	43.9%	50.7%	38.1%
Last Place in Conference	0.6%	0.3%	0.9%

First Four	1.9%	1.4%	2.3%
First Round	33.6%	40.0%	28.1%
Second Round	5.8%	8.2%	3.7%
Sweet Sixteen	1.8%	2.5%	1.2%
Elite Eight	0.4%	0.6%	0.2%
Final Four	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Pepperdine (Neutral) - 45.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 1
Quad 2	1 - 1	1 - 2
Quad 3	5 - 4	5 - 6
Quad 4	12 - 2	17 - 8

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	108	Pepperdine	L	76-77	46%
Nov 27, 2020	36	@ San Diego St.	L	61-72	15%
Dec 17, 2020	154	@ Loyola Marymount	L	65-66	48%
Dec 27, 2020	141	UC Santa Barbara	W	70-65	66%
Dec 28, 2020	141	UC Santa Barbara	W	70-65	66%
Jan 01, 2021	308	@ Cal St. Northridge	W	80-71	78%
Jan 02, 2021	308	@ Cal St. Northridge	W	80-71	78%
Jan 08, 2021	204	UC Davis	W	75-66	79%
Jan 09, 2021	204	UC Davis	W	75-66	78%
Jan 22, 2021	315	Cal Poly	W	79-63	92%
Jan 23, 2021	315	Cal Poly	W	79-63	91%
Jan 29, 2021	200	@ Hawaii	W	71-68	59%
Jan 30, 2021	200	@ Hawaii	W	71-68	59%
Feb 05, 2021	214	Cal St. Bakersfield	W	71-61	80%
Feb 06, 2021	214	Cal St. Bakersfield	W	71-61	79%
Feb 12, 2021	208	@ UC Riverside	W	65-62	61%
Feb 13, 2021	208	@ UC Riverside	W	65-62	61%
Feb 19, 2021	298	@ Cal St. Fullerton	W	74-66	75%
Feb 20, 2021	298	@ Cal St. Fullerton	W	74-66	75%
Feb 26, 2021	232	UC San Diego	W	68-57	81%
Feb 27, 2021	232	UC San Diego	W	68-57	81%
Mar 05, 2021	228	@ Long Beach St.	W	76-72	64%
Mar 06, 2021	228	@ Long Beach St.	W	76-72	65%
Projected Record						16 - 7	13 - 5

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big West Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st												0.1	0.7	3.2	7.2	11.1	11.3		33.4	1st
2nd											0.1	1.2	4.6	6.9	5.6	2.3	0.4		21.0	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.1	1.2	4.0	5.0	2.3	0.4	0.0			13.2	3rd
4th								0.0	0.1	1.0	2.8	3.0	1.1	0.1	0.0				8.0	4th
5th								0.1	0.7	2.3	2.0	0.5	0.0						5.8	5th
6th						0.0	0.0	0.4	1.5	1.2	0.3	0.0							3.5	6th
7th						0.0	0.3	1.0	0.8	0.1	0.0								2.3	7th
8th					0.1	0.3	0.5	0.4	0.1										1.4	8th
9th			0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1											0.8	9th
10th		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0												0.3	10th

Total		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.6	1.1	2.0	3.2	4.8	6.4	8.8	11.4	12.5	13.2	13.4	11.7			Total

Big West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	96.5%	11.3		10.1	1.2	0.0
15-1	82.8%	11.1		8.0	2.9	0.2
14-2	54.1%	7.2		3.9	2.8	0.4	0.0
13-3	25.4%	3.2		1.0	1.4	0.6	0.1	0.0
12-4	5.8%	0.7		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-5	1.0%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-6	0.0%
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	33.4%	33.4		23.1	8.6	1.4	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	11.7%		54.9%	53.9%	0.9%	12.9									0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	1.6	2.8	1.4	0.3		5.3		2.0%
15-1	13.4%		44.2%	44.2%	0.1%	13.5											0.0	0.1	0.7	2.2	2.3	0.7	0.0	7.5		0.1%
14-2	13.2%		37.8%	37.8%	0.0%	14.0													0.2	1.3	2.0	1.3	0.2	8.2		0.0%
13-3	12.5%		28.9%	28.9%		14.4													0.0	0.5	1.4	1.3	0.4	8.9
12-4	11.4%		21.9%	21.9%		14.9													0.0	0.2	0.5	1.1	0.7	8.9
11-5	8.8%		17.9%	17.9%		15.3														0.0	0.2	0.6	0.7	7.2
10-6	6.4%		12.6%	12.6%		15.6														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	5.6
9-7	4.8%		12.0%	12.0%		15.9															0.0	0.1	0.5	4.2
8-8	3.2%		6.7%	6.7%		16.0																0.0	0.2	3.0
7-9	2.0%		1.7%	1.7%		16.0																0.0	0.0	1.9
6-10	1.1%		2.3%	2.3%		16.0																	0.0	1.1
5-11	0.6%		1.2%	1.2%		16.0																	0.0	0.6
4-12	0.4%		4.7%	4.7%		16.0																	0.0	0.3
3-13	0.1%																							0.1
2-14	0.0%																							0.0
1-15	0.0%																							0.0
0-16

Total	100%		26.7%	26.5%	0.1%	14.0									0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	2.6	6.9	7.8	5.4	3.4	73.3		0.2%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.4%	100.0%	4.9	2.6	10.9	10.3	20.3	20.3	15.1	10.0	7.1	2.9		0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.1%	69.1%	7.6					14.5	3.6	1.8	30.9	14.5	1.8	1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	52.9%	10.8							2.9			23.5	2.9	23.5