Pre-tourney Rankings
American Athletic
2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
5 Houston 100.0%   3   29 - 5 15 - 3 29 - 5 15 - 3 +18.1      +9.8 11 +8.3 13 62.2 332 +15.5 16 +14.8 1
25 Memphis 93.0%   9   21 - 10 13 - 5 21 - 10 13 - 5 +12.1      +5.7 40 +6.4 30 75.3 30 +10.4 50 +11.6 3
49 SMU 39.1%   23 - 8 13 - 4 23 - 8 13 - 4 +9.9      +4.9 52 +5.0 50 70.3 113 +10.8 47 +13.7 2
92 Wichita St. 0.0%   15 - 13 6 - 9 15 - 13 6 - 9 +6.0      +1.2 141 +4.8 52 68.1 184 +5.0 105 +3.0 7
96 Tulane 0.0%   14 - 15 10 - 8 14 - 15 10 - 8 +5.7      +4.1 70 +1.6 129 69.3 137 +3.4 116 +7.4 5
100 Cincinnati 0.0%   17 - 15 7 - 11 17 - 15 7 - 11 +5.2      +1.4 136 +3.8 74 69.7 125 +3.9 111 +2.4 8
107 Central Florida 0.0%   18 - 12 9 - 9 18 - 12 9 - 9 +4.7      +2.5 108 +2.2 117 68.6 161 +6.9 83 +5.3 6
111 Temple 0.0%   17 - 12 10 - 7 17 - 12 10 - 7 +3.9      -0.4 188 +4.3 62 66.5 217 +6.2 91 +7.9 4
154 Tulsa 0.0%   11 - 20 4 - 14 11 - 20 4 - 14 +0.8      +0.8 159 0.0 176 66.4 223 -1.4 197 -2.5 10
168 East Carolina 0.0%   15 - 15 6 - 11 15 - 15 6 - 11 -0.2      -0.3 184 +0.1 173 69.3 136 +1.7 142 +1.4 9
231 South Florida 0.0%   8 - 23 3 - 15 8 - 23 3 - 15 -3.6      -7.8 347 +4.2 65 63.9 299 -4.9 248 -3.8 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Houston 1.0 100.0
Memphis 2.0 100.0
SMU 2.0 100.0
Wichita St. 8.0 100.0
Tulane 4.0 100.0
Cincinnati 7.0 100.0
Central Florida 6.0 100.0
Temple 4.0 100.0
Tulsa 10.0 100.0
East Carolina 8.0 100.0
South Florida 11.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Houston 15 - 3 100.0
Memphis 13 - 5 100.0
SMU 13 - 5 100.0
Wichita St. 6 - 12 100.0
Tulane 10 - 8 100.0
Cincinnati 7 - 11 100.0
Central Florida 9 - 9 100.0
Temple 10 - 8 100.0
Tulsa 4 - 14 100.0
East Carolina 6 - 12 100.0
South Florida 3 - 15 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Houston 100.0% 100.0
Memphis
SMU
Wichita St.
Tulane
Cincinnati
Central Florida
Temple
Tulsa
East Carolina
South Florida


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Houston 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 3   4.2 14.0 35.1 35.3 9.7 1.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Memphis 93.0% 0.0% 93.0% 9   0.1 0.5 5.8 26.0 35.1 22.2 3.3 0.0 7.0 93.0%
SMU 39.1% 0.0% 39.1% 0.0 0.2 0.8 3.8 19.4 14.5 0.3 60.9 39.1%
Wichita St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Tulane 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Cincinnati 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Central Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Temple 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Tulsa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
East Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
South Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Houston 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 91.4% 65.6% 36.7% 20.0% 10.1% 4.8%
Memphis 93.0% 0.3% 92.9% 49.3% 13.2% 5.5% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1%
SMU 39.1% 26.6% 25.6% 9.9% 3.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Wichita St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cincinnati 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Temple 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulsa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.3 3.9 60.2 35.9
1st Round 100.0% 2.2 4.9 71.8 23.4
2nd Round 96.0% 1.5 4.0 45.9 45.8 4.3
Sweet Sixteen 71.2% 0.8 28.8 60.8 10.2 0.2
Elite Eight 41.0% 0.4 59.0 38.9 2.0 0.0
Final Four 21.7% 0.2 78.3 21.5 0.3
Final Game 10.6% 0.1 89.4 10.6 0.0
Champion 4.9% 0.0 95.1 4.9