Pre-tourney Rankings
Arizona
Pac-12
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+19.9#2
Expected Predictive Rating+22.0#1
Pace79.2#8
Improvement-4.8#326

Offense
Total Offense+12.3#4
First Shot+8.5#14
After Offensive Rebound+3.8#4
Layup/Dunks+9.0#2
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#279
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#185
Freethrows+1.4#77
Improvement+0.8#144

Defense
Total Defense+7.6#16
First Shot+8.1#8
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#227
Layups/Dunks+5.3#17
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#331
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#99
Freethrows+3.4#3
Improvement-5.5#348
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 26.2% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 78.1% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 99.6% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 100.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 100.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier n/a n/a n/a
Average Seed 1.2 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round100.0% n/a n/a
Second Round97.8% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen78.7% n/a n/a
Elite Eight56.0% n/a n/a
Final Four35.8% n/a n/a
Championship Game20.8% n/a n/a
National Champion11.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 24 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 16 - 3
Quad 29 - 015 - 3
Quad 39 - 024 - 3
Quad 47 - 031 - 3


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 330   Northern Arizona W 81-52 99%     1 - 0 +16.0 +0.7 +15.2
  Nov 12, 2021 305   UT Rio Grande Valley W 104-50 99%     2 - 0 +43.1 +11.0 +25.3
  Nov 16, 2021 149   North Dakota St. W 97-45 96%     3 - 0 +50.9 +22.3 +27.6
  Nov 19, 2021 92   Wichita St. W 82-78 OT 90%     4 - 0 +10.0 -2.9 +12.0
  Nov 21, 2021 24   Michigan W 80-62 77%     5 - 0 +30.1 +10.2 +19.8
  Nov 27, 2021 303   Sacramento St. W 105-59 99%     6 - 0 +35.2 +13.0 +16.0
  Dec 05, 2021 204   @ Oregon St. W 90-65 95%     7 - 0 1 - 0 +25.3 +8.9 +15.0
  Dec 08, 2021 74   Wyoming W 94-65 90%     8 - 0 +34.8 +20.0 +13.6
  Dec 11, 2021 15   @ Illinois W 83-79 62%     9 - 0 +20.8 +12.3 +8.2
  Dec 15, 2021 211   Northern Colorado W 101-76 98%     10 - 0 +20.3 +10.5 +7.1
  Dec 18, 2021 226   California Baptist W 84-60 98%     11 - 0 +18.5 +5.0 +12.2
  Dec 22, 2021 7   @ Tennessee L 73-77 50%     11 - 1 +15.8 +7.9 +8.1
  Jan 03, 2022 101   Washington W 95-79 93%     12 - 1 2 - 0 +18.9 +15.7 +1.8
  Jan 13, 2022 57   Colorado W 76-55 88%     13 - 1 3 - 0 +28.2 +2.5 +24.2
  Jan 15, 2022 114   Utah W 82-64 95%     14 - 1 4 - 0 +19.3 +4.8 +13.8
  Jan 20, 2022 97   @ Stanford W 85-57 87%     15 - 1 5 - 0 +35.8 +12.7 +21.7
  Jan 23, 2022 122   @ California W 96-71 91%     16 - 1 6 - 0 +30.2 +27.1 +2.7
  Jan 25, 2022 8   @ UCLA L 59-75 51%     16 - 2 6 - 1 +3.6 -6.2 +10.2
  Jan 29, 2022 83   Arizona St. W 67-56 91%     17 - 2 7 - 1 +15.7 +0.8 +15.0
  Feb 03, 2022 8   UCLA W 76-66 68%     18 - 2 8 - 1 +25.2 +7.5 +17.4
  Feb 05, 2022 41   USC W 72-63 86%     19 - 2 9 - 1 +17.4 +9.7 +8.5
  Feb 07, 2022 83   @ Arizona St. W 91-79 84%     20 - 2 10 - 1 +21.1 +16.7 +3.1
  Feb 10, 2022 51   @ Washington St. W 72-60 78%     21 - 2 11 - 1 +23.8 +4.6 +19.0
  Feb 12, 2022 101   @ Washington W 92-68 88%     22 - 2 12 - 1 +31.4 +23.5 +7.8
  Feb 17, 2022 204   Oregon St. W 83-69 98%     23 - 2 13 - 1 +9.9 +8.1 +2.4
  Feb 19, 2022 70   Oregon W 84-81 90%     24 - 2 14 - 1 +9.0 +9.7 -0.9
  Feb 24, 2022 114   @ Utah W 97-77 90%     25 - 2 15 - 1 +25.8 +9.3 +13.1
  Feb 26, 2022 57   @ Colorado L 63-79 78%     25 - 3 15 - 2 -4.4 -1.8 -2.9
  Mar 01, 2022 41   @ USC W 91-71 75%     26 - 3 16 - 2 +32.8 +26.7 +6.6
  Mar 03, 2022 97   Stanford W 81-69 93%     27 - 3 17 - 2 +15.4 +8.8 +6.3
  Mar 05, 2022 122   California W 89-61 95%     28 - 3 18 - 2 +28.8 +24.1 +6.1
  Mar 10, 2022 97   Stanford W 84-80 90%     29 - 3 +9.6 +17.9 -8.2
  Mar 11, 2022 57   Colorado W 82-72 84%     30 - 3 +19.4 +11.3 +7.6
  Mar 12, 2022 8   UCLA W 84-76 60%     31 - 3 +25.4 +20.2 +5.3
Projected Record 31 - 3 18 - 2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 100.0    100.0
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1.2 78.1 21.5 0.4
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 1.2 78.1 21.5 0.4