Pre-tourney Rankings
Michigan St.
Big Ten
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.5#32
Expected Predictive Rating+13.2#26
Pace69.6#128
Improvement-5.1#331

Offense
Total Offense+6.2#33
First Shot+4.6#53
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#60
Layup/Dunks+1.1#123
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#145
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#183
Freethrows+3.1#10
Improvement-0.9#225

Defense
Total Defense+5.3#44
First Shot+4.7#40
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#119
Layups/Dunks+1.6#119
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#198
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#94
Freethrows+1.3#88
Improvement-4.2#332
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 12.7% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.6% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.6% n/a n/a
Average Seed 7.5 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round99.6% n/a n/a
Second Round52.1% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen14.1% n/a n/a
Elite Eight5.4% n/a n/a
Final Four1.6% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.4% n/a n/a
National Champion0.1% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 75 - 7
Quad 1b0 - 25 - 9
Quad 28 - 213 - 11
Quad 36 - 119 - 12
Quad 43 - 022 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 4   Kansas L 74-87 26%     0 - 1 +5.1 +1.3 +5.0
  Nov 12, 2021 309   Western Michigan W 90-46 97%     1 - 1 +32.5 +8.6 +22.9
  Nov 17, 2021 108   @ Butler W 73-52 67%     2 - 1 +27.9 +6.3 +22.0
  Nov 20, 2021 304   Eastern Michigan W 83-59 97%     3 - 1 +13.2 -1.4 +12.4
  Nov 24, 2021 31   Loyola Chicago W 63-61 50%     4 - 1 +13.6 -2.3 +15.9
  Nov 25, 2021 17   Connecticut W 64-60 40%     5 - 1 +18.1 -2.2 +20.4
  Nov 26, 2021 6   Baylor L 58-75 27%     5 - 2 +0.8 -1.7 +0.9
  Dec 01, 2021 119   Louisville W 73-64 84%     6 - 2 +10.0 +0.1 +9.6
  Dec 04, 2021 80   Toledo W 81-68 74%     7 - 2 +17.9 +2.5 +14.4
  Dec 08, 2021 105   @ Minnesota W 75-67 67%     8 - 2 1 - 0 +15.0 +10.0 +5.6
  Dec 11, 2021 73   Penn St. W 80-64 70%     9 - 2 2 - 0 +22.0 +15.6 +7.1
  Dec 21, 2021 186   Oakland W 90-78 88%     10 - 2 +11.0 +22.5 -10.7
  Dec 29, 2021 252   High Point W 81-68 95%     11 - 2 +5.8 +11.3 -4.6
  Jan 02, 2022 78   @ Northwestern W 73-67 57%     12 - 2 3 - 0 +15.8 +2.5 +13.0
  Jan 05, 2022 116   Nebraska W 79-67 84%     13 - 2 4 - 0 +13.0 +1.9 +10.6
  Jan 12, 2022 105   Minnesota W 71-69 80%     14 - 2 5 - 0 +4.6 +3.8 +0.9
  Jan 15, 2022 78   Northwestern L 62-64 72%     14 - 3 5 - 1 +3.3 -4.3 +7.6
  Jan 21, 2022 30   @ Wisconsin W 86-74 41%     15 - 3 6 - 1 +25.9 +20.9 +5.0
  Jan 25, 2022 15   @ Illinois L 55-56 31%     15 - 4 6 - 2 +15.8 -1.1 +16.7
  Jan 29, 2022 24   Michigan W 83-67 56%     16 - 4 7 - 2 +25.9 +12.2 +13.6
  Feb 01, 2022 64   @ Maryland W 65-63 53%     17 - 4 8 - 2 +12.8 +6.4 +6.8
  Feb 05, 2022 59   @ Rutgers L 63-84 50%     17 - 5 8 - 3 -9.6 +4.8 -16.9
  Feb 08, 2022 30   Wisconsin L 62-70 58%     17 - 6 8 - 4 +1.4 -1.3 +2.2
  Feb 12, 2022 33   Indiana W 76-61 59%     18 - 6 9 - 4 +24.2 +8.5 +15.5
  Feb 15, 2022 73   @ Penn St. L 58-62 54%     18 - 7 9 - 5 +6.4 +0.3 +5.6
  Feb 19, 2022 15   Illinois L 74-79 47%     18 - 8 9 - 6 +7.4 +11.4 -4.4
  Feb 22, 2022 10   @ Iowa L 60-86 22%     18 - 9 9 - 7 -6.5 -9.3 +3.5
  Feb 26, 2022 14   Purdue W 68-65 40%     19 - 9 10 - 7 +17.0 +1.6 +15.6
  Mar 01, 2022 24   @ Michigan L 70-87 39%     19 - 10 10 - 8 -2.6 +2.8 -5.6
  Mar 03, 2022 27   @ Ohio St. L 69-80 40%     19 - 11 10 - 9 +3.2 +4.6 -2.2
  Mar 06, 2022 64   Maryland W 77-67 69%     20 - 11 11 - 9 +16.4 +7.6 +8.9
  Mar 10, 2022 64   Maryland W 76-72 61%     21 - 11 +12.6 +6.9 +5.7
  Mar 11, 2022 30   Wisconsin W 69-63 50%     22 - 11 +17.7 +6.5 +11.5
  Mar 12, 2022 14   Purdue L 70-75 33%     22 - 12 +11.2 +8.3 +2.4
Projected Record 22 - 12 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 100.0 100.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 100.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 100.0% 99.6% 99.6% 7.5 0.0 1.6 11.1 37.7 35.8 12.2 1.0 0.0 0.4 99.6%
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.6% 0.0% 99.6% 7.5 0.0 1.6 11.1 37.7 35.8 12.2 1.0 0.0 0.4 99.6%