Preseason Rankings
Colgate
Patriot League
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.8#105
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace76.4#41
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#56
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#168
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.7% 0.9% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.6% 2.1% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 43.4% 47.1% 32.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.8% 2.3% 0.5%
Average Seed 12.9 12.7 13.9
.500 or above 89.5% 92.9% 79.2%
.500 or above in Conference 96.2% 98.0% 90.8%
Conference Champion 56.5% 63.7% 35.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.8%
First Four1.9% 1.7% 2.6%
First Round42.6% 46.4% 31.1%
Second Round8.8% 10.4% 4.2%
Sweet Sixteen2.9% 3.4% 1.1%
Elite Eight0.7% 0.9% 0.2%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Army (Away) - 74.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 22 - 4
Quad 35 - 37 - 7
Quad 416 - 223 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Feb 16, 2021 257   @ Army W 81-74 75%    
  Nov 09, 2021 134   Northeastern W 78-73 69%    
  Nov 13, 2021 59   @ North Carolina St. L 74-81 26%    
  Nov 16, 2021 290   @ Cornell W 82-73 78%    
  Nov 20, 2021 44   @ Syracuse L 75-84 22%    
  Nov 24, 2021 160   @ Harvard W 78-77 55%    
  Nov 29, 2021 250   Niagara W 80-67 86%    
  Dec 03, 2021 134   @ Northeastern L 75-76 49%    
  Dec 06, 2021 315   Columbia W 85-69 91%    
  Dec 09, 2021 117   @ Pittsburgh L 77-79 44%    
  Dec 12, 2021 52   @ St. John's L 81-89 26%    
  Dec 19, 2021 216   @ Monmouth W 87-82 64%    
  Dec 22, 2021 116   @ Vermont L 74-76 44%    
  Jan 01, 2022 292   @ Lafayette W 85-76 76%    
  Jan 04, 2022 297   @ Lehigh W 84-75 77%    
  Jan 07, 2022 259   American W 82-69 85%    
  Jan 10, 2022 257   Army W 84-71 85%    
  Jan 13, 2022 184   @ Navy W 77-74 59%    
  Jan 16, 2022 321   Holy Cross W 88-71 92%    
  Jan 19, 2022 294   @ Bucknell W 86-77 76%    
  Jan 22, 2022 292   Lafayette W 88-73 88%    
  Jan 24, 2022 276   Loyola Maryland W 84-70 87%    
  Jan 29, 2022 197   @ Boston University W 77-73 61%    
  Feb 02, 2022 294   Bucknell W 89-74 88%    
  Feb 05, 2022 259   @ American W 79-72 71%    
  Feb 09, 2022 297   Lehigh W 87-72 88%    
  Feb 12, 2022 276   @ Loyola Maryland W 81-73 73%    
  Feb 19, 2022 197   Boston University W 80-70 77%    
  Feb 23, 2022 321   @ Holy Cross W 85-74 81%    
  Feb 26, 2022 184   Navy W 80-71 75%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 2.5 6.7 11.7 14.6 12.8 7.6 56.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.3 5.6 6.1 3.3 0.9 20.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 2.7 3.7 2.3 0.7 0.0 10.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 1.9 2.2 0.9 0.1 5.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.2 0.4 0.0 3.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.7 2.8 4.0 6.0 8.5 10.5 13.4 15.0 15.5 12.8 7.6 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 7.6    7.6
17-1 100.0% 12.8    12.5 0.4
16-2 94.3% 14.6    12.7 1.9 0.0
15-3 77.5% 11.7    8.4 3.1 0.2
14-4 49.9% 6.7    3.6 2.7 0.5 0.0
13-5 23.6% 2.5    0.8 1.2 0.5 0.1
12-6 6.7% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 56.5% 56.5 45.5 9.4 1.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 7.6% 81.8% 76.9% 4.9% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.1 0.4 0.0 1.4 21.3%
17-1 12.8% 69.6% 66.5% 3.2% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.0 2.3 2.8 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.9 9.4%
16-2 15.5% 58.5% 57.3% 1.2% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 2.0 3.1 2.3 0.8 0.1 6.4 2.8%
15-3 15.0% 47.7% 47.4% 0.3% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.0 2.4 1.4 0.3 7.9 0.6%
14-4 13.4% 39.1% 39.1% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.8 1.6 0.5 8.2 0.1%
13-5 10.5% 29.5% 29.5% 14.6 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.2 0.6 7.4
12-6 8.5% 22.9% 22.9% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.7 6.6
11-7 6.0% 15.3% 15.3% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 5.1
10-8 4.0% 10.4% 10.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 3.6
9-9 2.8% 8.4% 8.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.5
8-10 1.7% 6.3% 6.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.6
7-11 1.1% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 1.0
6-12 0.5% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.5
5-13 0.3% 0.3
4-14 0.1% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 43.4% 42.4% 1.0% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 2.4 6.7 10.5 9.6 6.7 3.4 56.6 1.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 3.5 10.7 9.7 26.6 32.4 15.5 5.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 87.8% 4.1 6.1 6.1 23.5 21.7 12.2 12.2 6.1