IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
San Jose St.
Mountain West
2021-22

Overall
Predictive Rating	-9.5	#322
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	78.3	#22
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-3.6	#284

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-5.9	#332

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	13.7	13.5	14.5

.500 or above	3.2%	6.6%	0.9%
.500 or above in Conference	3.7%	6.6%	1.8%
Conference Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Last Place in Conference	48.9%	38.0%	56.3%

First Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
First Round	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Fullerton (Home) - 40.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 5
Quad 2	0 - 5	0 - 10
Quad 3	1 - 8	2 - 18
Quad 4	5 - 6	6 - 24

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 11, 2021	231	Cal St. Fullerton	L	82-85	40%
Nov 15, 2021	71	@ Stanford	L	67-87	4%
Nov 18, 2021	215	@ California Baptist	L	78-88	20%
Nov 20, 2021	7	@ Texas	L	64-93	1%
Nov 23, 2021	201	Northern Colorado	L	75-80	35%
Nov 30, 2021	186	South Dakota	L	78-84	32%
Dec 03, 2021	313	North Dakota	W	79-77	57%
Dec 06, 2021	147	@ Pepperdine	L	75-89	13%
Dec 11, 2021	137	Pacific	L	71-80	24%
Dec 17, 2021	307	@ Portland	L	81-85	36%
Dec 21, 2021	124	Santa Clara	L	76-86	22%
Dec 29, 2021	63	Nevada	L	74-89	11%
Jan 01, 2022	72	@ Utah St.	L	67-87	5%
Jan 05, 2022	145	UNLV	L	72-80	26%
Jan 11, 2022	138	@ Fresno St.	L	67-81	12%
Jan 15, 2022	51	Colorado St.	L	71-87	10%
Jan 18, 2022	156	@ Wyoming	L	74-87	15%
Jan 22, 2022	145	@ UNLV	L	69-83	13%
Jan 25, 2022	306	Air Force	W	72-70	55%
Jan 28, 2022	240	@ New Mexico	L	72-80	26%
Feb 01, 2022	138	Fresno St.	L	70-78	25%
Feb 05, 2022	76	@ Boise St.	L	69-89	6%
Feb 09, 2022	42	San Diego St.	L	64-82	8%
Feb 12, 2022	156	Wyoming	L	77-84	29%
Feb 16, 2022	63	@ Nevada	L	71-92	5%
Feb 19, 2022	240	New Mexico	L	75-77	43%
Feb 25, 2022	42	@ San Diego St.	L	61-85	3%
Mar 01, 2022	306	@ Air Force	L	69-73	36%
Mar 04, 2022	72	Utah St.	L	70-84	13%
Projected Record						6 - 23	3 - 15

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mountain West Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st														0.0	0.0	0.0					0.0	1st
2nd												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.1	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0						0.3	3rd
4th									0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0							0.8	4th
5th							0.0	0.0	0.2	0.6	0.5	0.1	0.0								1.4	5th
6th							0.1	0.5	1.1	0.9	0.2	0.0									2.7	6th
7th						0.2	1.1	2.0	1.2	0.3	0.0										4.9	7th
8th				0.0	0.6	2.7	3.4	1.8	0.3	0.0											8.9	8th
9th			0.1	2.4	5.8	5.5	2.3	0.4	0.0												16.5	9th
10th		1.4	7.4	10.2	6.7	1.9	0.2	0.0													27.8	10th
11th	8.3	13.4	10.1	4.0	0.8	0.1	0.0														36.7	11th

Total	8.3	14.8	17.6	16.6	14.0	10.3	7.1	4.8	2.9	1.8	1.0	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0					Total

Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2	0.0%
15-3	44.3%	0.0		0.0	0.0
14-4	6.9%	0.0			0.0
13-5	7.8%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0
12-6	0.0%
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	0.0%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2	0.0%																							0.0
15-3	0.0%		32.8%	9.8%	23.0%	10.1									0.0		0.0		0.0					0.0		25.5%
14-4	0.0%		12.7%	6.9%	5.9%	12.5													0.0	0.0				0.0		6.3%
13-5	0.1%		7.5%	5.5%	1.9%	12.1											0.0	0.0		0.0		0.0		0.1		2.1%
12-6	0.2%		2.5%	2.5%		13.5														0.0	0.0			0.2
11-7	0.5%		2.2%	2.2%		14.2														0.0	0.0	0.0		0.5
10-8	1.0%		1.3%	1.3%		14.5														0.0	0.0	0.0		1.0
9-9	1.8%		1.0%	1.0%		14.9														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.8
8-10	2.9%		0.4%	0.4%		13.5													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		2.8
7-11	4.8%		0.1%	0.1%		15.0																0.0		4.8
6-12	7.1%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	7.1
5-13	10.3%																							10.3
4-14	14.0%																							14.0
3-15	16.6%																							16.6
2-16	17.6%																							17.6
1-17	14.8%																							14.8
0-18	8.3%																							8.3

Total	100%		0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	13.7									0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	99.9		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	2.2%