Pre-tourney Rankings
Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.0#224
Expected Predictive Rating-5.2#259
Pace67.0#206
Improvement+2.5#16

Offense
Total Offense+1.6#128
First Shot+1.1#143
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#126
Layup/Dunks-3.1#304
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#49
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#78
Freethrows-1.0#260
Improvement+2.5#17

Defense
Total Defense-4.6#312
First Shot-4.4#319
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#207
Layups/Dunks-1.1#230
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#195
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#258
Freethrows-1.7#311
Improvement+0.0#187
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% n/a n/a
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round0.0% n/a n/a
Second Round0.0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0.0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0.0% n/a n/a
Final Four0.0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.0% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 40 - 8
Quad 35 - 75 - 15
Quad 45 - 810 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 31   @ Michigan St. L 55-73 6%     0 - 1 -3.1 -6.5 +2.1
  Nov 10, 2022 66   @ Arizona St. L 68-84 9%     0 - 2 -4.5 +3.1 -7.5
  Nov 12, 2022 82   @ Utah Valley L 69-73 12%     0 - 3 +6.0 +8.6 -2.8
  Nov 18, 2022 108   UC Santa Barbara W 63-54 35%     1 - 3 +10.1 -8.9 +19.3
  Nov 21, 2022 5   Texas L 48-73 4%     1 - 4 -8.0 -16.0 +8.1
  Nov 22, 2022 254   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 79-91 47%     1 - 5 -14.1 -1.0 -12.4
  Nov 27, 2022 204   Abilene Christian L 82-92 57%     1 - 6 -14.7 +6.5 -21.3
  Dec 03, 2022 185   @ Pepperdine L 69-88 31%     1 - 7 -16.9 -4.8 -11.7
  Dec 06, 2022 178   @ Pacific W 73-69 30%     2 - 7 +6.3 -0.6 +6.9
  Dec 10, 2022 82   Utah Valley L 75-80 OT 25%     2 - 8 -0.9 -1.2 +0.8
  Dec 17, 2022 115   @ Southern Utah L 101-106 OT 19%     2 - 9 +1.4 +9.3 -6.9
  Dec 29, 2022 257   @ Idaho St. L 53-79 47%     2 - 10 0 - 1 -28.3 -17.1 -13.1
  Dec 31, 2022 198   @ Weber St. L 60-76 33%     2 - 11 0 - 2 -14.5 -6.4 -8.9
  Jan 05, 2023 168   Montana W 75-74 OT 51%     3 - 11 1 - 2 -2.1 -2.2 +0.0
  Jan 07, 2023 117   Montana St. L 54-69 38%     3 - 12 1 - 3 -14.9 -16.8 +1.8
  Jan 12, 2023 245   @ Portland St. L 74-75 44%     3 - 13 1 - 4 -2.6 -3.4 +0.9
  Jan 14, 2023 231   @ Sacramento St. L 56-59 40%     3 - 14 1 - 5 -3.5 -9.9 +6.0
  Jan 19, 2023 305   Idaho L 83-88 77%     3 - 15 1 - 6 -15.7 +4.9 -20.7
  Jan 21, 2023 138   Eastern Washington L 76-79 43%     3 - 16 1 - 7 -4.2 +5.4 -9.9
  Jan 28, 2023 227   Northern Colorado W 83-73 62%     4 - 16 2 - 7 +3.9 +2.8 +1.0
  Feb 02, 2023 117   @ Montana St. L 68-69 20%     4 - 17 2 - 8 +5.0 +11.4 -6.5
  Feb 04, 2023 168   @ Montana L 66-67 29%     4 - 18 2 - 9 +1.8 +0.4 +1.3
  Feb 06, 2023 257   Idaho St. L 70-75 69%     4 - 19 2 - 10 -13.2 -1.1 -12.6
  Feb 09, 2023 231   Sacramento St. W 77-55 63%     5 - 19 3 - 10 +15.6 +12.5 +6.6
  Feb 11, 2023 245   Portland St. L 87-88 67%     5 - 20 3 - 11 -8.5 +4.9 -13.4
  Feb 16, 2023 138   @ Eastern Washington L 55-72 23%     5 - 21 3 - 12 -12.3 -15.0 +1.7
  Feb 18, 2023 305   @ Idaho W 72-50 57%     6 - 21 4 - 12 +17.3 +5.7 +14.9
  Feb 25, 2023 227   @ Northern Colorado W 85-82 39%     7 - 21 5 - 12 +2.9 +11.1 -8.2
  Feb 27, 2023 198   Weber St. L 89-90 OT 56%     7 - 22 5 - 13 -5.4 +11.3 -16.7
  Mar 04, 2023 305   Idaho W 87-76 68%     8 - 22 +3.3 +4.0 -1.2
  Mar 05, 2023 138   Eastern Washington W 81-80 32%     9 - 22 +2.8 +9.1 -6.3
  Mar 07, 2023 168   Montana W 83-71 39%     10 - 22 +11.8 +11.8 +0.6
  Mar 08, 2023 117   Montana St. L 78-85 28%     10 - 23 -4.0 +10.9 -15.1
Projected Record 10 - 23 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 100.0 100.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13 100.0% 100.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%