Pre-tourney Rankings
Troy
Sun Belt
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.0#135
Expected Predictive Rating+1.5#139
Pace68.8#160
Improvement-0.5#232

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#181
First Shot-0.4#190
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#182
Layup/Dunks+1.3#119
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#258
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#187
Freethrows-0.3#201
Improvement-1.3#312

Defense
Total Defense+2.3#102
First Shot+3.2#77
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#271
Layups/Dunks+3.6#47
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#193
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#145
Freethrows-1.3#291
Improvement+0.8#92
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% n/a n/a
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round0.0% n/a n/a
Second Round0.0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0.0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0.0% n/a n/a
Final Four0.0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.0% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 50 - 7
Quad 36 - 56 - 12
Quad 411 - 117 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 14, 2022 179   @ Florida St. W 79-72 49%     1 - 0 +9.3 +2.7 +6.3
  Nov 17, 2022 312   Merrimack W 73-54 84%     2 - 0 +10.6 +6.9 +4.8
  Nov 18, 2022 220   St. Thomas L 76-78 67%     2 - 1 -4.5 +2.0 -6.5
  Nov 19, 2022 168   @ Montana W 73-62 47%     3 - 1 +13.8 +4.1 +10.4
  Nov 28, 2022 17   @ Arkansas L 61-74 10%     3 - 2 +3.2 -0.1 +2.8
  Dec 03, 2022 250   @ SIU Edwardsville L 72-78 65%     3 - 3 -7.9 +6.6 -15.0
  Dec 05, 2022 20   @ San Diego St. L 55-60 10%     3 - 4 +11.1 -4.6 +15.4
  Dec 10, 2022 295   Tennessee Tech W 87-64 87%     4 - 4 +12.9 +6.9 +5.7
  Dec 17, 2022 266   @ SE Louisiana W 77-71 68%     5 - 4 +3.3 +3.7 -0.2
  Dec 21, 2022 226   Mercer L 79-82 78%     5 - 5 -9.0 +7.9 -17.1
  Dec 29, 2022 107   @ Southern Miss L 60-64 31%     5 - 6 0 - 1 +3.1 -9.3 +12.4
  Dec 31, 2022 197   @ Texas St. W 55-52 51%     6 - 6 1 - 1 +4.6 -14.6 +19.3
  Jan 05, 2023 167   Old Dominion W 78-71 69%     7 - 6 2 - 1 +3.9 +5.5 -1.5
  Jan 07, 2023 284   Arkansas St. W 66-54 86%     8 - 6 3 - 1 +2.6 -9.0 +12.0
  Jan 12, 2023 268   @ Georgia St. W 65-53 68%     9 - 6 4 - 1 +9.2 -8.8 +17.7
  Jan 14, 2023 180   @ Appalachian St. L 45-58 49%     9 - 7 4 - 2 -10.7 -23.0 +11.9
  Jan 19, 2023 98   James Madison L 87-89 OT 51%     9 - 8 4 - 3 -0.2 +3.8 -3.7
  Jan 21, 2023 282   Louisiana Monroe W 77-53 86%     10 - 8 5 - 3 +14.6 +3.5 +11.8
  Jan 26, 2023 101   @ Louisiana L 57-72 29%     10 - 9 5 - 4 -7.3 -7.6 -1.4
  Jan 28, 2023 110   @ South Alabama L 60-77 31%     10 - 10 5 - 5 -10.0 -1.1 -11.1
  Feb 02, 2023 107   Southern Miss L 65-74 53%     10 - 11 5 - 6 -7.9 -2.4 -6.1
  Feb 04, 2023 197   Texas St. W 68-64 73%     11 - 11 6 - 6 -0.3 +0.4 -0.3
  Feb 09, 2023 110   South Alabama W 61-57 54%     12 - 11 7 - 6 +5.1 -11.7 +16.7
  Feb 11, 2023 101   Louisiana W 80-65 51%     13 - 11 8 - 6 +16.8 +12.5 +5.4
  Feb 16, 2023 284   @ Arkansas St. W 67-62 70%     14 - 11 9 - 6 +1.5 -4.3 +6.1
  Feb 18, 2023 83   @ Marshall L 78-88 23%     14 - 12 9 - 7 -0.2 +6.2 -5.9
  Feb 22, 2023 282   @ Louisiana Monroe W 82-78 OT 70%     15 - 12 10 - 7 +0.6 +2.0 -1.8
  Feb 24, 2023 290   Coastal Carolina W 95-74 86%     16 - 12 11 - 7 +11.3 +6.7 +2.9
  Mar 02, 2023 284   Arkansas St. W 63-59 79%     17 - 12 -2.4 -3.2 +1.4
  Mar 04, 2023 98   James Madison L 72-75 39%     17 - 13 +1.8 -0.4 +2.3
Projected Record 17 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 100.0 100.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 100.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 100.0% 100.0
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%