Pre-tourney Rankings
Northwestern
Big Ten
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.3#40
Expected Predictive Rating+12.4#27
Pace61.5#344
Improvement+2.5#76

Offense
Total Offense+7.4#29
First Shot+6.6#32
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#128
Layup/Dunks+1.5#110
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#151
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#40
Freethrows+0.2#163
Improvement+2.2#69

Defense
Total Defense+3.9#70
First Shot+1.7#121
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#35
Layups/Dunks+4.8#30
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#134
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#307
Freethrows-0.5#226
Improvement+0.3#158
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.8% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 74.3% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 74.3% n/a n/a
Average Seed 9.1 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four13.7% n/a n/a
First Round67.4% n/a n/a
Second Round32.4% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen7.7% n/a n/a
Elite Eight2.8% n/a n/a
Final Four0.8% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.2% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 14 - 7
Quad 25 - 39 - 10
Quad 35 - 014 - 10
Quad 47 - 121 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 285   Binghamton W 72-61 96%     1 - 0 +1.9 -4.1 +6.3
  Nov 10, 2023 44   Dayton W 71-66 62%     2 - 0 +13.3 +14.7 -0.4
  Nov 14, 2023 301   Western Michigan W 63-59 97%     3 - 0 -6.3 -3.7 -1.9
  Nov 18, 2023 210   Rhode Island W 72-61 90%     4 - 0 +8.4 +6.6 +3.4
  Nov 19, 2023 30   Mississippi St. L 57-66 44%     4 - 1 +3.8 -4.5 +7.6
  Nov 27, 2023 306   Northern Illinois W 89-67 97%     5 - 1 +11.2 +14.9 -2.4
  Dec 01, 2023 4   Purdue W 92-88 OT 27%     6 - 1 1 - 0 +21.7 +13.7 +7.5
  Dec 10, 2023 349   Detroit Mercy W 91-59 99%     7 - 1 +15.5 +10.6 +5.6
  Dec 13, 2023 297   Chicago St. L 73-75 97%     7 - 2 -12.0 +0.3 -12.4
  Dec 16, 2023 294   @ DePaul W 56-46 92%     8 - 2 +5.4 -10.0 +17.1
  Dec 20, 2023 118   Arizona St. W 65-46 78%     9 - 2 +22.2 +1.5 +22.2
  Dec 29, 2023 317   Jackson St. W 74-63 97%     10 - 2 -0.7 -2.2 +2.0
  Jan 02, 2024 10   @ Illinois L 66-96 22%     10 - 3 1 - 1 -10.5 +0.5 -12.4
  Jan 07, 2024 18   Michigan St. W 88-74 48%     11 - 3 2 - 1 +25.9 +29.7 -2.7
  Jan 10, 2024 68   @ Penn St. W 76-72 54%     12 - 3 3 - 1 +14.4 +8.8 +5.7
  Jan 13, 2024 19   @ Wisconsin L 63-71 31%     12 - 4 3 - 2 +8.6 +3.0 +4.7
  Jan 17, 2024 60   Maryland W 72-69 67%     13 - 4 4 - 2 +9.7 +14.7 -4.7
  Jan 20, 2024 27   @ Nebraska L 69-75 34%     13 - 5 4 - 3 +9.6 +6.8 +2.5
  Jan 24, 2024 10   Illinois W 96-91 OT 38%     14 - 5 5 - 3 +19.3 +18.4 +0.6
  Jan 27, 2024 38   Ohio St. W 83-58 60%     15 - 5 6 - 3 +33.8 +25.2 +12.1
  Jan 31, 2024 4   @ Purdue L 96-105 OT 14%     15 - 6 6 - 4 +13.8 +24.3 -9.7
  Feb 03, 2024 69   @ Minnesota L 66-75 OT 54%     15 - 7 6 - 5 +1.3 -5.5 +7.1
  Feb 07, 2024 27   Nebraska W 80-68 54%     16 - 7 7 - 5 +22.4 +10.3 +11.9
  Feb 11, 2024 68   Penn St. W 68-63 72%     17 - 7 8 - 5 +10.2 +0.7 +9.7
  Feb 15, 2024 96   @ Rutgers L 60-63 61%     17 - 8 8 - 6 +5.5 +4.0 +1.3
  Feb 18, 2024 82   @ Indiana W 76-72 57%     18 - 8 9 - 6 +13.4 +11.4 +2.2
  Feb 22, 2024 117   Michigan W 76-62 84%     19 - 8 10 - 6 +14.7 +16.6 +0.7
  Feb 28, 2024 60   @ Maryland W 68-61 48%     20 - 8 11 - 6 +18.9 +14.6 +5.3
  Mar 02, 2024 49   Iowa L 80-87 63%     20 - 9 11 - 7 +0.8 +15.0 -14.9
  Mar 06, 2024 18   @ Michigan St. L 49-53 29%     20 - 10 11 - 8 +13.1 -3.4 +15.7
  Mar 09, 2024 69   Minnesota W 90-66 73%     21 - 10 12 - 8 +29.1 +30.4 +2.2
  Mar 15, 2024 19   Wisconsin L 61-70 40%     21 - 11 +5.0 -1.1 +5.3
  Mar 22, 2024 43   Florida Atlantic W 74-73 51%    
Projected Record 22 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 100.0 100.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 100.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 100.0% 74.3% 74.3% 9.1 0.1 0.7 4.3 13.5 25.8 24.5 5.3 25.7 74.3%
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 74.3% 0.0% 74.3% 9.1 0.1 0.7 4.3 13.5 25.8 24.5 5.3 25.7 74.3%