Pre-tourney Rankings
Dayton
Atlantic 10
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.2#77
Expected Predictive Rating+9.0#65
Pace65.2#262
Improvement-3.8#325

Offense
Total Offense+5.4#58
First Shot+4.9#60
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#150
Layup/Dunks+3.6#61
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#212
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#165
Freethrows+1.5#86
Improvement-4.2#339

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#118
First Shot+1.4#131
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#139
Layups/Dunks+3.7#54
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#339
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#151
Freethrows-0.7#235
Improvement+0.4#175
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.2% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.2% n/a n/a
Average Seed 11.7 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.2% n/a n/a
First Round0.7% n/a n/a
Second Round0.1% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0.0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0.0% n/a n/a
Final Four0.0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.0% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 4
Quad 22 - 55 - 9
Quad 310 - 115 - 10
Quad 46 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 315   St. Francis (PA) W 87-57 95%     1 - 0 +18.0 +8.0 +9.8
  Nov 09, 2024 49   Northwestern W 71-66 46%     2 - 0 +13.4 +4.4 +9.1
  Nov 13, 2024 269   Ball St. W 77-69 93%     3 - 0 -0.9 -2.0 +1.0
  Nov 20, 2024 129   New Mexico St. W 74-53 78%     4 - 0 +20.2 +15.3 +8.2
  Nov 25, 2024 31   North Carolina L 90-92 25%     4 - 1 +12.1 +14.1 -1.8
  Nov 26, 2024 11   Iowa St. L 84-89 14%     4 - 2 +14.0 +23.3 -9.4
  Nov 27, 2024 30   Connecticut W 85-67 24%     5 - 2 +32.5 +22.8 +11.2
  Dec 03, 2024 293   Western Michigan W 77-69 94%     6 - 2 -2.4 +12.7 -13.7
  Dec 07, 2024 279   Lehigh W 86-62 93%     7 - 2 +14.4 +18.5 -1.5
  Dec 14, 2024 27   Marquette W 71-63 31%     8 - 2 +20.2 +13.6 +7.7
  Dec 17, 2024 94   UNLV W 66-65 68%     9 - 2 +3.5 +8.3 -4.7
  Dec 20, 2024 48   Cincinnati L 59-66 35%     9 - 3 +4.2 +0.0 +3.4
  Dec 31, 2024 212   La Salle W 84-70 88%     10 - 3 1 - 0 +8.3 +0.4 +6.5
  Jan 04, 2025 117   @ George Washington L 62-82 56%     10 - 4 1 - 1 -14.3 -5.4 -9.6
  Jan 08, 2025 198   @ Massachusetts L 72-76 73%     10 - 5 1 - 2 -3.3 +1.4 -4.7
  Jan 15, 2025 82   George Mason L 59-67 62%     10 - 6 1 - 3 -4.0 +3.6 -9.1
  Jan 18, 2025 104   Loyola Chicago W 83-81 OT 71%     11 - 6 2 - 3 +3.3 +7.5 -4.3
  Jan 21, 2025 127   @ Duquesne W 82-62 59%     12 - 6 3 - 3 +24.9 +19.0 +7.4
  Jan 24, 2025 80   Saint Joseph's W 77-72 61%     13 - 6 4 - 3 +9.2 +11.0 -1.4
  Jan 28, 2025 112   @ St. Bonaventure L 53-75 53%     13 - 7 4 - 4 -15.6 -1.8 -19.1
  Jan 31, 2025 102   @ Saint Louis W 71-63 51%     14 - 7 5 - 4 +15.0 +4.8 +10.6
  Feb 04, 2025 145   Davidson W 69-63 80%     15 - 7 6 - 4 +4.1 +1.3 +3.5
  Feb 07, 2025 36   Virginia Commonwealth L 68-73 36%     15 - 8 6 - 5 +5.9 +1.3 +4.5
  Feb 12, 2025 227   @ Fordham W 93-76 78%     16 - 8 7 - 5 +16.2 +27.0 -9.2
  Feb 15, 2025 127   Duquesne W 77-76 77%     17 - 8 8 - 5 +0.4 +10.4 -9.9
  Feb 21, 2025 104   @ Loyola Chicago L 72-76 51%     17 - 9 8 - 6 +2.8 +3.6 -0.7
  Feb 26, 2025 154   @ Rhode Island W 85-77 65%     18 - 9 9 - 6 +11.2 +7.8 +2.9
  Mar 01, 2025 225   Richmond W 74-64 2OT 89%     19 - 9 10 - 6 +3.8 -8.5 +11.3
  Mar 04, 2025 102   Saint Louis W 75-67 71%     20 - 9 11 - 6 +9.5 +7.2 +2.7
  Mar 07, 2025 36   @ Virginia Commonwealth W 79-76 19%     21 - 9 12 - 6 +19.4 +21.7 -2.1
  Mar 14, 2025 80   Saint Joseph's L 68-73 OT 51%     21 - 10 +2.0 -5.2 +7.5
Projected Record 21 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 100.0 100.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 100.0% 2.2% 2.2% 11.7 0.6 1.6 97.8 2.2%
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.2% 0.0% 2.2% 11.7 0.6 1.6 97.8 2.2%