Pre-tourney Rankings
Duke
Atlantic Coast
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+25.6#1
Expected Predictive Rating+24.1#4
Pace64.9#271
Improvement+0.2#183

Offense
Total Offense+14.7#2
First Shot+12.0#2
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#33
Layup/Dunks+5.1#31
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#258
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.5#23
Freethrows+1.7#81
Improvement+2.5#71

Defense
Total Defense+10.9#5
First Shot+8.2#12
After Offensive Rebounds+2.7#13
Layups/Dunks+7.3#14
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#250
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#148
Freethrows+0.4#158
Improvement-2.3#294
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 19.6% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 73.5% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 99.7% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 100.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 100.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier n/a n/a n/a
Average Seed 1.3 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round100.0% n/a n/a
Second Round99.6% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen86.5% n/a n/a
Elite Eight70.6% n/a n/a
Final Four51.9% n/a n/a
Championship Game35.2% n/a n/a
National Champion22.6% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 36 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 09 - 3
Quad 27 - 016 - 3
Quad 310 - 026 - 3
Quad 45 - 031 - 3


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 220   Maine W 96-62 99%     1 - 0 +28.0 +18.5 +7.9
  Nov 08, 2024 323   Army W 100-58 99.7%    2 - 0 +29.4 +19.7 +9.1
  Nov 12, 2024 16   Kentucky L 72-77 80%     2 - 1 +11.8 +0.2 +11.9
  Nov 16, 2024 130   Wofford W 86-35 98%     3 - 1 +50.2 +17.2 +37.5
  Nov 22, 2024 13   @ Arizona W 69-55 66%     4 - 1 +35.3 +7.4 +28.4
  Nov 26, 2024 18   Kansas L 72-75 81%     4 - 2 +13.4 +10.7 +2.6
  Nov 29, 2024 149   Seattle W 70-48 99%     5 - 2 +19.9 +1.4 +19.2
  Dec 04, 2024 3   Auburn W 84-78 67%     6 - 2 +27.1 +28.9 -1.1
  Dec 08, 2024 23   @ Louisville W 76-65 75%     7 - 2 1 - 0 +29.6 +15.3 +14.7
  Dec 10, 2024 262   Incarnate Word W 72-46 99%     8 - 2 +17.8 +3.0 +18.1
  Dec 17, 2024 82   George Mason W 68-47 97%     9 - 2 +25.0 +8.9 +18.4
  Dec 21, 2024 91   @ Georgia Tech W 82-56 94%     10 - 2 2 - 0 +34.5 +23.1 +13.8
  Dec 31, 2024 136   Virginia Tech W 88-65 99%     11 - 2 3 - 0 +21.7 +22.8 +1.0
  Jan 04, 2025 45   @ SMU W 89-62 86%     12 - 2 4 - 0 +41.2 +28.5 +14.7
  Jan 07, 2025 62   Pittsburgh W 76-47 95%     13 - 2 5 - 0 +35.7 +11.4 +26.7
  Jan 11, 2025 95   Notre Dame W 86-78 97%     14 - 2 6 - 0 +10.5 +21.1 -10.0
  Jan 14, 2025 174   Miami (FL) W 89-54 99%     15 - 2 7 - 0 +31.3 +19.1 +16.0
  Jan 18, 2025 170   @ Boston College W 88-63 97%     16 - 2 8 - 0 +27.2 +20.9 +7.5
  Jan 25, 2025 63   @ Wake Forest W 63-56 90%     17 - 2 9 - 0 +18.8 +1.0 +18.1
  Jan 27, 2025 109   North Carolina St. W 74-64 98%     18 - 2 10 - 0 +11.1 +5.0 +6.4
  Feb 01, 2025 31   North Carolina W 87-70 90%     19 - 2 11 - 0 +28.4 +25.6 +4.2
  Feb 05, 2025 103   @ Syracuse W 83-54 95%     20 - 2 12 - 0 +35.9 +25.9 +14.6
  Feb 08, 2025 21   @ Clemson L 71-77 74%     20 - 3 12 - 1 +12.9 +16.3 -4.1
  Feb 12, 2025 108   California W 78-57 98%     21 - 3 13 - 1 +22.2 +9.6 +14.0
  Feb 15, 2025 79   Stanford W 106-70 97%     22 - 3 14 - 1 +40.3 +41.3 +1.1
  Feb 17, 2025 99   @ Virginia W 80-62 95%     23 - 3 15 - 1 +25.3 +22.1 +5.9
  Feb 22, 2025 20   Illinois W 110-67 81%     24 - 3 +59.3 +38.0 +19.3
  Feb 25, 2025 174   @ Miami (FL) W 97-60 98%     25 - 3 16 - 1 +38.8 +18.3 +19.8
  Mar 01, 2025 87   Florida St. W 100-65 97%     26 - 3 17 - 1 +38.7 +29.0 +9.1
  Mar 03, 2025 63   Wake Forest W 93-60 95%     27 - 3 18 - 1 +39.3 +25.4 +13.7
  Mar 08, 2025 31   @ North Carolina W 82-69 80%     28 - 3 19 - 1 +29.9 +19.1 +11.2
  Mar 13, 2025 91   Georgia Tech W 78-70 96%     29 - 3 +13.7 +13.0 +1.0
  Mar 14, 2025 31   North Carolina W 74-71 86%     30 - 3 +17.1 +8.6 +8.6
  Mar 15, 2025 23   Louisville W 73-62 82%     31 - 3 +26.8 +15.3 +12.6
Projected Record 31 - 3 19 - 1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 100.0    100.0
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1.3 73.5 26.2 0.3
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 1.3 73.5 26.2 0.3