Preseason Rankings
Air Force
Mountain West
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.4#229
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace58.3#361
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#208
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#252
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.6 13.2
.500 or above 16.6% 22.5% 7.3%
.500 or above in Conference 8.6% 11.1% 4.6%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 35.2% 30.0% 43.5%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Alabama (Home) - 61.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 21 - 61 - 11
Quad 33 - 75 - 18
Quad 47 - 312 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 231   North Alabama W 69-66 61%    
  Nov 07, 2024 202   Jacksonville St. W 64-62 56%    
  Nov 11, 2024 352   LIU Brooklyn W 74-62 87%    
  Nov 15, 2024 144   Belmont L 69-70 45%    
  Nov 21, 2024 109   @ California L 62-72 18%    
  Nov 24, 2024 362   Mercyhurst W 74-56 94%    
  Nov 27, 2024 300   Sacramento St. W 65-58 72%    
  Nov 30, 2024 196   @ Wright St. L 70-75 34%    
  Dec 02, 2024 233   @ Miami (OH) L 64-67 40%    
  Dec 07, 2024 260   Stony Brook W 67-65 55%    
  Dec 16, 2024 226   @ Northern Colorado L 68-71 39%    
  Dec 21, 2024 63   @ Boise St. L 57-72 10%    
  Dec 31, 2024 95   UNLV L 61-67 29%    
  Jan 04, 2025 177   Wyoming W 67-66 51%    
  Jan 07, 2025 47   @ San Diego St. L 55-71 8%    
  Jan 11, 2025 160   San Jose St. L 64-65 48%    
  Jan 14, 2025 75   @ Nevada L 58-72 12%    
  Jan 18, 2025 250   @ Fresno St. L 62-64 43%    
  Jan 21, 2025 47   San Diego St. L 58-68 19%    
  Jan 25, 2025 81   Utah St. L 64-72 26%    
  Jan 28, 2025 84   @ Colorado St. L 58-71 13%    
  Feb 01, 2025 160   @ San Jose St. L 61-68 29%    
  Feb 04, 2025 75   Nevada L 61-69 25%    
  Feb 08, 2025 70   New Mexico L 66-75 24%    
  Feb 11, 2025 95   @ UNLV L 58-70 16%    
  Feb 18, 2025 177   @ Wyoming L 63-69 32%    
  Feb 22, 2025 250   Fresno St. W 65-61 62%    
  Feb 25, 2025 84   Colorado St. L 61-68 28%    
  Mar 01, 2025 70   @ New Mexico L 63-78 11%    
  Mar 04, 2025 63   Boise St. L 60-69 23%    
  Mar 08, 2025 81   @ Utah St. L 61-75 13%    
Projected Record 11 - 20 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.8 1.6 0.5 0.0 4.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.1 2.2 0.6 0.1 7.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 3.4 4.5 2.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 12.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.0 5.9 5.9 2.9 0.6 0.0 18.8 9th
10th 0.3 2.4 6.1 7.6 5.2 2.0 0.4 0.0 24.0 10th
11th 2.3 5.8 7.7 6.0 2.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 25.5 11th
Total 2.3 6.1 10.1 12.6 13.5 13.1 11.8 9.5 7.4 5.2 3.6 2.2 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 83.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 49.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 33.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 11.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.0% 40.3% 40.3% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 40.3%
16-4 0.1% 21.6% 12.6% 9.0% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.3%
15-5 0.2% 17.3% 4.6% 12.7% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13.3%
14-6 0.4% 8.4% 7.7% 0.7% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7%
13-7 0.8% 7.3% 7.0% 0.3% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.3%
12-8 1.3% 3.6% 3.6% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3
11-9 2.2% 2.4% 2.4% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2
10-10 3.6% 1.7% 1.7% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5
9-11 5.2% 0.6% 0.6% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.2
8-12 7.4% 0.5% 0.5% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.4
7-13 9.5% 0.2% 0.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.5
6-14 11.8% 0.2% 0.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 11.7
5-15 13.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.0
4-16 13.5% 13.5
3-17 12.6% 12.6
2-18 10.1% 10.1
1-19 6.1% 6.1
0-20 2.3% 2.3
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%