Preseason Rankings
Creighton
Big East
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+14.5#13
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.8#234
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+8.7#12
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.8#25
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.4% 2.4% 0.2%
#1 Seed 10.0% 10.1% 1.7%
Top 2 Seed 20.4% 20.7% 3.4%
Top 4 Seed 39.8% 40.2% 12.0%
Top 6 Seed 55.6% 56.1% 22.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 79.3% 79.7% 50.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 75.7% 76.2% 46.9%
Average Seed 4.9 4.9 6.9
.500 or above 88.5% 88.9% 61.9%
.500 or above in Conference 81.8% 82.1% 59.6%
Conference Champion 17.5% 17.7% 4.8%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 1.2% 4.3%
First Four3.4% 3.3% 5.8%
First Round77.7% 78.1% 47.4%
Second Round59.2% 59.6% 30.2%
Sweet Sixteen34.0% 34.3% 12.3%
Elite Eight17.7% 17.9% 5.9%
Final Four9.1% 9.2% 1.7%
Championship Game4.7% 4.7% 0.6%
National Champion2.2% 2.2% 0.0%

Next Game: UT Rio Grande Valley (Home) - 98.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 27 - 8
Quad 26 - 213 - 10
Quad 35 - 118 - 11
Quad 44 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 284   UT Rio Grande Valley W 88-65 99%    
  Nov 10, 2024 347   Fairleigh Dickinson W 92-63 99.7%   
  Nov 13, 2024 357   Houston Christian W 93-61 99.8%   
  Nov 16, 2024 205   UMKC W 80-60 96%    
  Nov 22, 2024 51   Nebraska W 77-69 76%    
  Nov 26, 2024 47   San Diego St. W 71-66 66%    
  Nov 27, 2024 19   Texas A&M W 72-70 57%    
  Nov 30, 2024 34   Oregon W 73-70 62%    
  Dec 04, 2024 2   Kansas L 74-75 46%    
  Dec 07, 2024 95   UNLV W 76-64 84%    
  Dec 14, 2024 5   @ Alabama L 77-84 29%    
  Dec 18, 2024 101   @ Georgetown W 76-70 70%    
  Dec 21, 2024 37   Villanova W 70-64 71%    
  Dec 31, 2024 18   St. John's W 77-72 65%    
  Jan 03, 2025 26   @ Marquette L 73-74 48%    
  Jan 11, 2025 72   @ Butler W 75-71 63%    
  Jan 14, 2025 48   Providence W 75-67 74%    
  Jan 18, 2025 1   @ Connecticut L 65-74 24%    
  Jan 21, 2025 122   @ DePaul W 77-68 77%    
  Jan 25, 2025 68   Seton Hall W 74-65 78%    
  Jan 29, 2025 28   Xavier W 80-74 68%    
  Feb 01, 2025 37   @ Villanova W 67-66 52%    
  Feb 05, 2025 48   @ Providence W 72-70 56%    
  Feb 08, 2025 26   Marquette W 76-71 67%    
  Feb 11, 2025 1   Connecticut L 68-71 42%    
  Feb 16, 2025 18   @ St. John's L 74-75 46%    
  Feb 23, 2025 101   Georgetown W 79-67 84%    
  Feb 26, 2025 122   DePaul W 80-65 89%    
  Mar 01, 2025 28   @ Xavier L 76-77 49%    
  Mar 04, 2025 68   @ Seton Hall W 71-68 61%    
  Mar 08, 2025 72   Butler W 78-68 79%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.2 4.0 4.5 3.7 1.8 0.5 17.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.4 5.1 6.1 4.3 1.7 0.3 20.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.2 5.6 4.4 1.9 0.3 0.0 16.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 3.3 4.8 2.9 0.7 0.1 12.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 2.9 4.0 1.9 0.3 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.5 3.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 7.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 1.9 2.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 6.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 4.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.3 2.0 3.0 4.5 6.4 7.8 9.5 10.8 11.4 11.0 10.2 8.6 6.2 4.0 1.8 0.5 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
19-1 100.0% 1.8    1.7 0.1
18-2 92.6% 3.7    3.2 0.6 0.0
17-3 72.2% 4.5    3.1 1.3 0.1
16-4 46.3% 4.0    2.1 1.6 0.3 0.0
15-5 21.1% 2.2    0.8 1.0 0.3 0.0
14-6 7.1% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 17.5% 17.5 11.5 5.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.5% 100.0% 58.2% 41.8% 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.8% 100.0% 51.8% 48.2% 1.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 4.0% 100.0% 44.4% 55.6% 1.4 2.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 6.2% 100.0% 32.7% 67.3% 1.9 2.6 2.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 8.6% 100.0% 27.7% 72.3% 2.5 1.9 2.9 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 10.2% 100.0% 22.6% 77.4% 3.4 0.8 2.2 3.1 2.1 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 11.0% 99.6% 16.3% 83.3% 4.4 0.2 1.0 2.5 2.6 2.0 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
13-7 11.4% 98.4% 11.3% 87.0% 5.6 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.9 2.3 2.2 1.5 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 98.1%
12-8 10.8% 94.1% 7.9% 86.2% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.6 93.6%
11-9 9.5% 83.3% 5.1% 78.2% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 1.6 82.4%
10-10 7.8% 63.5% 4.0% 59.4% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.9 61.9%
9-11 6.4% 33.6% 2.1% 31.5% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 4.3 32.2%
8-12 4.5% 12.5% 1.2% 11.3% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.0 11.4%
7-13 3.0% 2.8% 0.5% 2.4% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 2.4%
6-14 2.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 11.3 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.1%
5-15 1.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.3
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 79.3% 14.7% 64.6% 4.9 10.0 10.4 10.4 9.0 8.2 7.6 6.3 5.7 4.2 3.4 3.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.7 75.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 93.8 6.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 84.4 15.6