Preseason Rankings
Detroit Mercy
Horizon
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-11.4#342
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.6#204
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-5.3#326
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-6.1#353
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 1.3% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 14.8 15.5
.500 or above 3.7% 15.9% 3.3%
.500 or above in Conference 10.7% 25.5% 10.2%
Conference Champion 0.3% 1.0% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 27.8% 12.8% 28.2%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round0.4% 1.2% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Chicago (Away) - 3.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 31 - 81 - 13
Quad 46 - 107 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 100   @ Loyola Chicago L 61-81 3%    
  Nov 10, 2024 308   Niagara L 70-71 47%    
  Nov 16, 2024 168   Toledo L 72-80 23%    
  Nov 20, 2024 240   @ Ball St. L 65-76 17%    
  Nov 23, 2024 41   @ Wake Forest L 61-86 1%    
  Nov 27, 2024 142   Rhode Island L 67-80 13%    
  Nov 30, 2024 287   @ Eastern Michigan L 65-73 23%    
  Dec 05, 2024 180   Purdue Fort Wayne L 70-78 25%    
  Dec 07, 2024 196   Wright St. L 75-82 28%    
  Dec 14, 2024 135   @ Davidson L 60-76 8%    
  Dec 18, 2024 174   @ Northern Kentucky L 63-77 12%    
  Dec 22, 2024 44   @ Wisconsin L 57-82 2%    
  Dec 29, 2024 198   @ Youngstown St. L 66-79 14%    
  Jan 02, 2025 295   Robert Morris L 70-72 45%    
  Jan 04, 2025 200   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 73-80 28%    
  Jan 09, 2025 360   @ IU Indianapolis W 71-70 54%    
  Jan 11, 2025 180   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 67-81 12%    
  Jan 18, 2025 146   Oakland L 66-75 22%    
  Jan 22, 2025 213   @ Cleveland St. L 65-77 16%    
  Jan 25, 2025 196   @ Wright St. L 72-85 15%    
  Jan 30, 2025 174   Northern Kentucky L 66-74 26%    
  Feb 01, 2025 310   Green Bay L 66-67 48%    
  Feb 05, 2025 295   @ Robert Morris L 67-75 27%    
  Feb 08, 2025 198   Youngstown St. L 69-76 29%    
  Feb 16, 2025 146   @ Oakland L 63-78 10%    
  Feb 19, 2025 360   IU Indianapolis W 74-67 72%    
  Feb 21, 2025 213   Cleveland St. L 68-74 32%    
  Feb 27, 2025 310   @ Green Bay L 63-70 29%    
  Mar 01, 2025 200   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 70-83 15%    
Projected Record 7 - 22 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 3.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 1.9 0.6 0.0 5.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.0 2.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 8.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 2.6 4.5 3.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 12.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.5 5.4 6.2 3.8 0.9 0.1 19.4 9th
10th 0.4 2.9 7.1 8.3 6.3 2.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 28.3 10th
11th 1.7 4.6 5.5 4.4 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 19.0 11th
Total 1.7 5.0 8.5 12.0 13.0 13.2 11.7 10.3 8.0 5.9 4.2 2.8 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 83.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 57.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 33.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 9.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 13.5% 13.5% 14.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.0% 27.4% 27.4% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 16.8% 16.8% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.3% 15.3% 15.3% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-6 0.5% 8.1% 8.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-7 1.0% 8.1% 8.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
12-8 1.7% 4.3% 4.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7
11-9 2.8% 3.2% 3.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 2.7
10-10 4.2% 1.8% 1.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 4.1
9-11 5.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 5.9
8-12 8.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 8.0
7-13 10.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.3
6-14 11.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.7
5-15 13.2% 13.2
4-16 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.0
3-17 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.0
2-18 8.5% 8.5
1-19 5.0% 5.0
0-20 1.7% 1.7
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.9%