IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Mercyhurst
Northeast
2024-25

Overall
Predictive Rating	-17.9	#362
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	68.6	#169
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-10.6	#361

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-7.3	#362

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	1.3%	3.3%	1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	16.0	16.0	16.0

.500 or above	1.7%	9.6%	1.5%
.500 or above in Conference	15.1%	34.2%	14.7%
Conference Champion	1.1%	3.4%	1.1%
Last Place in Conference	44.7%	23.3%	45.1%

First Four	1.3%	3.0%	1.3%
First Round	0.4%	1.6%	0.4%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: George Washington (Away) - 2.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 3	0 - 4	0 - 8
Quad 4	6 - 15	6 - 23

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	150	@ George Washington	L	64-85	2%
Nov 06, 2024	320	@ Morgan St.	L	67-79	13%
Nov 13, 2024	297	Canisius	L	64-72	23%
Nov 16, 2024	230	@ Columbia	L	63-81	6%
Nov 24, 2024	229	@ Air Force	L	56-74	6%
Nov 27, 2024	109	@ California	L	58-83	1%
Nov 30, 2024	300	@ Sacramento St.	L	58-72	11%
Dec 01, 2024	82	@ San Francisco	L	55-83	1%
Dec 07, 2024	199	Lafayette	L	58-71	12%
Dec 15, 2024	118	@ Kent St.	L	57-81	2%
Dec 18, 2024	318	@ Binghamton	L	62-74	14%
Dec 22, 2024	65	@ West Virginia	L	57-86	1%
Jan 03, 2025	356	Stonehill	L	68-69	47%
Jan 05, 2025	304	Central Connecticut St.	L	64-71	26%
Jan 10, 2025	354	@ St. Francis (PA)	L	64-71	26%
Jan 12, 2025	335	@ Le Moyne	L	64-74	20%
Jan 18, 2025	285	@ Wagner	L	53-68	10%
Jan 20, 2025	352	@ LIU Brooklyn	L	68-76	25%
Jan 24, 2025	285	Wagner	L	56-65	23%
Jan 26, 2025	352	LIU Brooklyn	L	71-73	43%
Jan 30, 2025	354	St. Francis (PA)	L	67-68	45%
Feb 01, 2025	347	@ Fairleigh Dickinson	L	71-80	23%
Feb 06, 2025	332	@ Chicago St.	L	60-71	19%
Feb 08, 2025	335	Le Moyne	L	67-71	37%
Feb 13, 2025	304	@ Central Connecticut St.	L	61-74	13%
Feb 15, 2025	356	@ Stonehill	L	65-72	29%
Feb 20, 2025	347	Fairleigh Dickinson	L	74-77	40%
Feb 27, 2025	332	Chicago St.	L	63-68	35%
Projected Record						6 - 22	5 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Northeast Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st										0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0		1.1	1st
2nd									0.0	0.2	0.7	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.0				2.2	2nd
3rd								0.0	0.5	1.5	1.3	0.3	0.0						3.7	3rd
4th							0.0	0.7	2.4	1.8	0.3	0.0							5.3	4th
5th						0.0	1.0	3.4	2.5	0.4	0.0								7.4	5th
6th					0.1	1.6	4.7	3.5	0.6	0.0									10.5	6th
7th			0.0	0.4	3.1	6.2	4.2	0.7	0.0										14.8	7th
8th		0.2	1.8	5.8	8.2	4.7	0.8	0.0											21.5	8th
9th	3.4	7.9	10.2	7.8	3.4	0.6	0.0												33.4	9th

Total	3.4	8.1	12.1	14.1	14.8	13.2	10.9	8.4	6.0	4.0	2.5	1.4	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0			Total

Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
15-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
14-2	97.3%	0.1		0.1	0.0
13-3	80.6%	0.2		0.2	0.0	0.0
12-4	44.4%	0.3		0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0
11-5	19.5%	0.3		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
10-6	4.2%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
9-7	0.1%	0.0						0.0
8-8	0.0%

Total	1.1%	1.1		0.5	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	0.0%																					0.0	0.0	0.0
15-1	0.0%		26.5%	26.5%		16.0																	0.0	0.0
14-2	0.1%		36.4%	36.4%		16.0																0.0	0.0	0.1
13-3	0.3%		22.8%	22.8%		16.0																	0.1	0.2
12-4	0.8%		15.5%	15.5%		16.0																	0.1	0.7
11-5	1.4%		7.5%	7.5%		16.0																	0.1	1.3
10-6	2.5%		8.3%	8.3%		16.0																	0.2	2.3
9-7	4.0%		4.2%	4.2%		16.0																	0.2	3.8
8-8	6.0%		3.2%	3.2%		16.0																	0.2	5.8
7-9	8.4%		1.9%	1.9%		16.0																	0.2	8.2
6-10	10.9%		1.2%	1.2%		16.0																	0.1	10.8
5-11	13.2%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.1	13.1
4-12	14.8%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	14.8
3-13	14.1%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	14.0
2-14	12.1%																							12.1
1-15	8.1%																							8.1
0-16	3.4%																							3.4

Total	100%		1.3%	1.3%	0.0%	16.0																0.0	1.3	98.7		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	2.5%