Preseason Rankings
Nevada
Mountain West
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.6#75
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.8#231
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.5#85
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.0#68
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.7% 0.9% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 2.6% 3.2% 0.6%
Top 6 Seed 5.2% 6.4% 1.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.2% 27.5% 13.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 13.2% 15.6% 5.9%
Average Seed 8.9 8.8 9.9
.500 or above 81.9% 86.8% 66.2%
.500 or above in Conference 77.8% 81.1% 67.1%
Conference Champion 15.4% 17.6% 8.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.8% 2.5%
First Four3.8% 4.3% 2.3%
First Round22.3% 25.4% 12.4%
Second Round11.0% 12.8% 5.1%
Sweet Sixteen4.2% 5.0% 1.6%
Elite Eight1.7% 2.1% 0.5%
Final Four0.6% 0.8% 0.2%
Championship Game0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Sam Houston St. (Home) - 76.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 24 - 45 - 7
Quad 37 - 313 - 11
Quad 47 - 120 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 119   Sam Houston St. W 73-65 76%    
  Nov 09, 2024 62   Washington W 75-73 57%    
  Nov 13, 2024 179   Weber St. W 74-63 85%    
  Nov 16, 2024 98   Santa Clara W 75-70 67%    
  Nov 21, 2024 89   Vanderbilt W 70-69 52%    
  Dec 02, 2024 91   Washington St. W 69-65 64%    
  Dec 07, 2024 141   @ Loyola Marymount W 70-67 61%    
  Dec 11, 2024 178   South Dakota St. W 76-65 83%    
  Dec 14, 2024 261   Texas Southern W 76-61 91%    
  Dec 21, 2024 84   Colorado St. W 70-66 62%    
  Dec 28, 2024 177   @ Wyoming W 73-68 67%    
  Dec 31, 2024 81   Utah St. W 73-70 61%    
  Jan 03, 2025 70   @ New Mexico L 74-78 38%    
  Jan 11, 2025 250   @ Fresno St. W 71-62 77%    
  Jan 14, 2025 229   Air Force W 72-58 88%    
  Jan 18, 2025 160   San Jose St. W 74-64 81%    
  Jan 21, 2025 81   @ Utah St. L 70-73 41%    
  Jan 25, 2025 47   San Diego St. W 67-66 52%    
  Jan 28, 2025 63   @ Boise St. L 67-71 37%    
  Feb 01, 2025 95   UNLV W 71-66 65%    
  Feb 04, 2025 229   @ Air Force W 69-61 75%    
  Feb 11, 2025 250   Fresno St. W 74-59 89%    
  Feb 14, 2025 160   @ San Jose St. W 71-67 64%    
  Feb 18, 2025 84   @ Colorado St. L 67-69 42%    
  Feb 22, 2025 63   Boise St. W 70-68 56%    
  Feb 25, 2025 177   Wyoming W 76-65 82%    
  Mar 01, 2025 95   @ UNLV L 68-69 45%    
  Mar 04, 2025 70   New Mexico W 77-75 58%    
  Mar 08, 2025 47   @ San Diego St. L 64-69 33%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.4 3.9 3.9 2.9 1.3 0.3 15.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.1 4.9 2.9 1.1 0.1 14.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.8 4.4 1.8 0.3 0.0 13.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.4 5.1 3.8 1.2 0.1 13.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.8 4.7 3.2 0.8 0.1 12.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.7 4.1 2.5 0.5 0.0 10.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.6 3.1 1.6 0.3 0.0 8.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.9 2.1 0.8 0.1 5.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.4 2.5 3.9 5.7 7.2 9.1 10.2 11.2 10.9 10.4 9.1 7.1 4.9 3.0 1.3 0.3 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.3    1.3 0.0
18-2 96.0% 2.9    2.6 0.3 0.0
17-3 78.4% 3.9    2.9 0.9 0.1
16-4 54.2% 3.9    2.0 1.5 0.3 0.0
15-5 26.3% 2.4    0.8 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 6.3% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 15.4% 15.4 10.0 4.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 100.0% 59.8% 40.2% 2.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.3% 97.5% 51.1% 46.4% 4.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.8%
18-2 3.0% 94.6% 44.8% 49.8% 5.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 90.2%
17-3 4.9% 83.0% 35.2% 47.8% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.8 73.7%
16-4 7.1% 65.6% 26.8% 38.9% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 2.4 53.1%
15-5 9.1% 45.6% 21.8% 23.8% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.7 0.4 0.0 5.0 30.5%
14-6 10.4% 27.3% 15.6% 11.7% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 7.6 13.9%
13-7 10.9% 16.1% 11.2% 4.9% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 9.2 5.5%
12-8 11.2% 10.0% 8.2% 1.8% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 10.1 2.0%
11-9 10.2% 5.3% 5.0% 0.3% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.7 0.3%
10-10 9.1% 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.9 0.0%
9-11 7.2% 1.7% 1.7% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.1
8-12 5.7% 1.0% 1.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6
7-13 3.9% 1.1% 1.1% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9
6-14 2.5% 0.3% 0.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 2.5
5-15 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.4
4-16 0.9% 0.9
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 24.2% 12.6% 11.5% 8.9 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 2.4 3.5 6.4 3.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 75.8 13.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.0 36.8 36.8 21.6 2.6 2.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.7 65.9 34.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 3.1 19.0 24.1 15.5 15.5 17.2 8.6