IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Northern Illinois
Mid-American
2024-25

Overall
Predictive Rating	-7.5	#306
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	70.0	#129
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-3.6	#285

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-3.9	#312

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	1.7%	2.8%	1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.0	14.7	15.2

.500 or above	17.2%	32.9%	12.6%
.500 or above in Conference	30.2%	42.5%	26.6%
Conference Champion	1.5%	2.7%	1.1%
Last Place in Conference	16.7%	9.7%	18.7%

First Four	0.4%	0.4%	0.4%
First Round	1.5%	2.6%	1.1%
Second Round	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Georgia Southern (Away) - 22.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 4
Quad 3	2 - 7	2 - 11
Quad 4	8 - 7	10 - 18

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	209	@ Georgia Southern	L	70-78	22%
Nov 12, 2024	216	Monmouth	L	71-73	44%
Nov 16, 2024	92	@ Bradley	L	62-79	6%
Nov 20, 2024	288	Elon	W	74-72	56%
Nov 23, 2024	122	@ DePaul	L	67-80	12%
Nov 27, 2024	242	@ Valparaiso	L	69-76	28%
Nov 29, 2024	326	@ Eastern Illinois	L	69-70	47%
Dec 07, 2024	112	@ Northern Iowa	L	64-78	11%
Dec 18, 2024	193	@ Illinois St.	L	63-72	22%
Jan 04, 2025	287	@ Eastern Michigan	L	68-72	36%
Jan 07, 2025	118	Kent St.	L	68-75	26%
Jan 11, 2025	121	@ Ohio	L	67-80	13%
Jan 14, 2025	233	Miami (OH)	L	71-72	46%
Jan 18, 2025	277	Central Michigan	W	68-67	53%
Jan 21, 2025	311	@ Western Michigan	L	73-75	42%
Jan 25, 2025	240	Ball St.	L	71-72	48%
Jan 28, 2025	131	Akron	L	66-73	29%
Feb 01, 2025	168	@ Toledo	L	72-82	20%
Feb 04, 2025	265	@ Bowling Green	L	70-75	33%
Feb 11, 2025	337	Buffalo	W	77-71	70%
Feb 15, 2025	240	@ Ball St.	L	68-75	29%
Feb 18, 2025	131	@ Akron	L	63-76	15%
Feb 22, 2025	287	Eastern Michigan	W	71-69	56%
Feb 25, 2025	233	@ Miami (OH)	L	68-75	28%
Mar 01, 2025	311	Western Michigan	W	76-72	61%
Mar 04, 2025	265	Bowling Green	W	73-72	52%
Mar 07, 2025	277	@ Central Michigan	L	65-70	34%
Projected Record						9 - 18	7 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mid-American Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0		1.5	1st
2nd											0.0	0.2	0.7	1.0	0.6	0.2	0.0				2.8	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.3	1.3	1.7	0.8	0.1	0.0					4.3	3rd
4th									0.0	0.3	1.8	2.4	1.0	0.1	0.0						5.7	4th
5th								0.0	0.3	2.3	3.4	1.3	0.1	0.0							7.4	5th
6th								0.3	2.5	4.0	1.7	0.2	0.0								8.6	6th
7th						0.0	0.2	2.3	4.9	2.2	0.2										9.9	7th
8th					0.0	0.3	2.4	5.1	2.9	0.4	0.0										11.0	8th
9th				0.0	0.3	2.6	5.3	3.5	0.5	0.0											12.3	9th
10th			0.0	0.6	2.9	5.4	3.3	0.6	0.0												12.8	10th
11th		0.2	1.2	3.6	4.8	2.8	0.5	0.0													13.1	11th
12th	0.6	1.9	3.1	3.0	1.4	0.3	0.0														10.5	12th

Total	0.6	2.1	4.3	7.2	9.4	11.2	11.8	11.9	11.1	9.3	7.4	5.4	3.7	2.2	1.3	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0			Total

Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1
16-2	90.1%	0.2		0.2	0.0	0.0
15-3	61.5%	0.4		0.2	0.1	0.0
14-4	38.4%	0.5		0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
13-5	9.9%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	2.0%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0					0.0			0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	1.5%	1.5		0.7	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0		0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%																	0.0						0.0
17-1	0.1%		34.8%	34.8%		12.5												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0
16-2	0.2%		27.8%	27.8%		13.2													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.2
15-3	0.6%		17.8%	17.8%		13.7													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.5
14-4	1.3%		12.8%	12.8%		14.3													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	1.1
13-5	2.2%		8.9%	8.9%		14.7														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	2.0
12-6	3.7%		5.9%	5.9%		15.0														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	3.5
11-7	5.4%		4.8%	4.8%		15.3														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	5.2
10-8	7.4%		3.1%	3.1%		15.6															0.0	0.1	0.2	7.2
9-9	9.3%		1.9%	1.9%		15.7															0.0	0.0	0.1	9.1
8-10	11.1%		1.5%	1.5%		16.0																0.0	0.2	10.9
7-11	11.9%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																0.0	0.1	11.8
6-12	11.8%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	11.8
5-13	11.2%																							11.2
4-14	9.4%																							9.4
3-15	7.2%																							7.2
2-16	4.3%																							4.3
1-17	2.1%																							2.1
0-18	0.6%																							0.6

Total	100%		1.7%	1.7%	0.0%	15.0												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.7	98.3		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.2%