Preseason Rankings
UMKC
Summit League
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-2.3#205
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.5#242
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.9#241
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#179
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.5% 28.3% 15.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 13.1 14.6
.500 or above 58.4% 87.1% 57.7%
.500 or above in Conference 69.5% 88.9% 69.0%
Conference Champion 19.8% 38.0% 19.4%
Last Place in Conference 6.6% 1.7% 6.7%
First Four2.2% 0.5% 2.2%
First Round14.5% 27.8% 14.2%
Second Round1.1% 4.3% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 1.2% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iowa St. (Away) - 2.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 32 - 53 - 8
Quad 412 - 615 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2024 8   @ Iowa St. L 57-78 2%    
  Nov 16, 2024 13   @ Creighton L 60-80 4%    
  Nov 22, 2024 252   American W 66-64 58%    
  Nov 23, 2024 259   Albany W 78-75 60%    
  Nov 30, 2024 327   Southeast Missouri St. W 75-65 82%    
  Dec 04, 2024 279   Idaho W 70-64 71%    
  Dec 07, 2024 149   @ Montana St. L 68-74 30%    
  Dec 10, 2024 271   @ Portland W 72-71 51%    
  Dec 14, 2024 265   Bowling Green W 73-67 69%    
  Dec 17, 2024 105   @ Wichita St. L 65-75 20%    
  Dec 21, 2024 170   East Tennessee St. W 69-68 54%    
  Jan 02, 2025 274   South Dakota W 76-70 70%    
  Jan 04, 2025 225   Oral Roberts W 73-69 63%    
  Jan 08, 2025 302   @ Nebraska Omaha W 71-69 56%    
  Jan 16, 2025 234   @ North Dakota St. L 67-69 44%    
  Jan 18, 2025 263   @ North Dakota L 69-70 49%    
  Jan 23, 2025 178   South Dakota St. W 71-70 55%    
  Jan 25, 2025 201   St. Thomas W 67-64 59%    
  Jan 30, 2025 317   @ Denver W 75-72 61%    
  Feb 01, 2025 225   @ Oral Roberts L 70-72 44%    
  Feb 06, 2025 234   North Dakota St. W 70-66 63%    
  Feb 08, 2025 263   North Dakota W 72-66 68%    
  Feb 13, 2025 274   @ South Dakota W 73-72 51%    
  Feb 19, 2025 302   Nebraska Omaha W 74-66 74%    
  Feb 22, 2025 178   @ South Dakota St. L 68-73 35%    
  Feb 27, 2025 317   Denver W 78-69 77%    
  Mar 01, 2025 201   @ St. Thomas L 64-67 40%    
Projected Record 14 - 13 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.6 5.6 4.1 2.1 0.6 19.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 3.9 5.8 4.2 1.3 0.2 16.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.4 5.9 2.6 0.4 0.0 14.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.3 5.3 1.9 0.2 0.0 12.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.9 4.9 1.4 0.1 11.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.1 4.3 1.1 0.0 9.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.6 3.2 0.9 0.0 7.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.1 2.0 0.6 0.0 5.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.0 3.9 9th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.7 5.6 7.6 9.9 11.2 12.0 12.2 11.0 9.2 6.8 4.3 2.1 0.6 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
15-1 100.0% 2.1    2.1 0.0
14-2 95.9% 4.1    3.7 0.4 0.0
13-3 81.4% 5.6    4.0 1.5 0.1
12-4 50.3% 4.6    2.3 1.9 0.4 0.0
11-5 21.4% 2.3    0.5 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
10-6 3.6% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 19.8% 19.8 13.1 5.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.6% 66.8% 65.3% 1.5% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 4.4%
15-1 2.1% 51.7% 51.7% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0
14-2 4.3% 46.8% 46.7% 0.1% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 2.3 0.1%
13-3 6.8% 35.8% 35.8% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.7 0.1 4.4
12-4 9.2% 28.1% 28.1% 14.5 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.3 6.6
11-5 11.0% 20.4% 20.4% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.7 8.7
10-6 12.2% 14.7% 14.7% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 10.4
9-7 12.0% 10.8% 10.8% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 10.7
8-8 11.2% 7.7% 7.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 10.4
7-9 9.9% 4.6% 4.6% 15.9 0.0 0.4 9.5
6-10 7.6% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2 7.4
5-11 5.6% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 5.4
4-12 3.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 3.6
3-13 2.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.2
2-14 1.1% 1.1
1-15 0.4% 0.4
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 15.5% 15.5% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.2 3.5 4.5 4.3 84.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%