Preseason Rankings
Villanova
Big East
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.1#37
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace60.8#350
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#62
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.6#17
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
#1 Seed 1.8% 1.9% 0.3%
Top 2 Seed 4.6% 4.9% 1.0%
Top 4 Seed 12.5% 13.1% 3.6%
Top 6 Seed 22.1% 23.2% 7.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 52.3% 54.0% 28.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 49.1% 50.8% 26.2%
Average Seed 6.9 6.8 7.9
.500 or above 77.4% 79.3% 51.8%
.500 or above in Conference 59.3% 60.8% 39.6%
Conference Champion 6.0% 6.3% 2.2%
Last Place in Conference 4.8% 4.4% 9.9%
First Four4.7% 4.8% 4.2%
First Round49.8% 51.5% 26.4%
Second Round31.2% 32.4% 14.5%
Sweet Sixteen14.1% 14.7% 4.8%
Elite Eight6.4% 6.7% 2.2%
Final Four2.8% 3.0% 0.7%
Championship Game1.2% 1.3% 0.3%
National Champion0.5% 0.5% 0.1%

Next Game: Lafayette (Home) - 93.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 9
Quad 25 - 310 - 12
Quad 34 - 114 - 13
Quad 45 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 199   Lafayette W 70-54 93%    
  Nov 06, 2024 230   Columbia W 77-60 95%    
  Nov 08, 2024 343   NJIT W 78-52 99%    
  Nov 12, 2024 90   @ Saint Joseph's W 68-67 55%    
  Nov 15, 2024 57   Virginia W 58-56 56%    
  Nov 19, 2024 166   Penn W 73-59 89%    
  Nov 24, 2024 38   Maryland W 63-62 50%    
  Nov 27, 2024 241   Rider W 75-57 94%    
  Dec 03, 2024 27   Cincinnati W 67-65 58%    
  Dec 11, 2024 347   Fairleigh Dickinson W 84-58 99%    
  Dec 17, 2024 68   Seton Hall W 67-61 69%    
  Dec 21, 2024 13   @ Creighton L 64-70 29%    
  Jan 01, 2025 72   @ Butler W 68-67 51%    
  Jan 04, 2025 122   DePaul W 72-61 83%    
  Jan 08, 2025 1   Connecticut L 61-67 30%    
  Jan 11, 2025 18   @ St. John's L 66-71 35%    
  Jan 14, 2025 28   @ Xavier L 68-72 38%    
  Jan 17, 2025 48   Providence W 67-63 64%    
  Jan 20, 2025 101   Georgetown W 72-63 77%    
  Jan 24, 2025 26   @ Marquette L 66-70 37%    
  Feb 01, 2025 13   Creighton L 66-67 48%    
  Feb 05, 2025 122   @ DePaul W 69-64 68%    
  Feb 09, 2025 28   Xavier W 71-69 57%    
  Feb 12, 2025 18   St. John's W 69-68 54%    
  Feb 15, 2025 48   @ Providence L 64-66 44%    
  Feb 18, 2025 1   @ Connecticut L 58-70 16%    
  Feb 21, 2025 26   Marquette W 69-67 56%    
  Feb 26, 2025 68   @ Seton Hall L 63-64 49%    
  Mar 01, 2025 72   Butler W 70-64 70%    
  Mar 04, 2025 101   @ Georgetown W 69-66 59%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 6.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.6 3.1 3.1 1.7 0.5 0.0 10.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 2.7 4.2 2.9 1.1 0.1 0.0 11.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 3.7 4.6 2.5 0.6 0.0 12.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.1 4.4 2.0 0.3 0.0 12.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 4.0 4.4 1.7 0.2 0.0 11.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.7 3.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 10.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.5 2.9 0.9 0.1 9.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.7 2.3 0.6 0.1 7.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.8 1.3 0.3 0.0 5.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.8 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.5 3.9 5.8 7.6 8.7 10.0 10.9 10.5 10.0 8.8 6.9 5.4 3.4 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.3 0.0
18-2 95.2% 1.0    0.8 0.1
17-3 73.0% 1.5    1.1 0.4 0.0
16-4 45.0% 1.5    0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
15-5 21.1% 1.1    0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
14-6 5.4% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.0% 6.0 3.7 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 64.1% 35.9% 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.4% 100.0% 49.1% 50.9% 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.0% 100.0% 36.7% 63.3% 1.8 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.0% 100.0% 28.0% 72.0% 2.3 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 3.4% 100.0% 23.0% 77.0% 3.2 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 5.4% 99.7% 16.5% 83.2% 4.3 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
14-6 6.9% 98.9% 14.0% 84.9% 5.5 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.7%
13-7 8.8% 95.6% 8.7% 86.9% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.4 95.2%
12-8 10.0% 88.9% 6.6% 82.3% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.2 0.7 0.0 1.1 88.1%
11-9 10.5% 72.9% 4.5% 68.4% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.8 1.6 1.3 0.1 0.0 2.9 71.6%
10-10 10.9% 49.4% 2.5% 46.9% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.0 1.5 1.5 0.3 5.5 48.1%
9-11 10.0% 21.6% 1.4% 20.3% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 7.8 20.6%
8-12 8.7% 6.1% 0.9% 5.2% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 8.1 5.3%
7-13 7.6% 1.3% 0.5% 0.8% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.5 0.8%
6-14 5.8% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8 0.1%
5-15 3.9% 0.3% 0.3% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8
4-16 2.5% 2.5
3-17 1.3% 1.3
2-18 0.6% 0.6
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 52.3% 6.3% 46.0% 6.9 1.8 2.9 3.8 4.0 4.7 5.0 6.1 6.4 6.3 5.5 4.9 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 47.7 49.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0