Atlantic Sun
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Queens 28%   15   Negligible 1 - 0 0 - 0 -1.2 168 B- +3 101 D -4 312 +9 42 0 1
Lipscomb 18%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -3.0 203 C -1 177 D+ -2 247 -15 347 0 1
Florida Gulf Coast 15%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -4.0 229 C- -1 200 D+ -2 256 -2 294 0 1
Jacksonville 16%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -4.5 237 C- -1 198 D+ -3 278 0 137 0 1
Stetson 12%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -6.0 271 C- -2 209 D -4 319 +1 123 0 1
Bellarmine 5%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -8.5 311 C- -2 204 F+ -7 363 +6 68 0 1
North Florida 5%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -9.3 321 D+ -3 252 F+ -6 359 0 137 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Mon, Nov 2 229 Florida Gulf Coast 95 78 Central Florida 96   
Mon, Nov 2 52 Clemson 85 271 Stetson 72   
Mon, Nov 2 311 Bellarmine 47 22 Vanderbilt 93   
Mon, Nov 2 168 Queens 103 223 Winthrop 98   
Mon, Nov 2 203 Lipscomb 79 250 Southeast Missouri St. 86   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Tue, Nov 3 45 Iowa 78 203 Lipscomb 60 94%   
Tue, Nov 3 97 South Carolina 78 271 Stetson 63 91%   
Tue, Nov 3 215 California Baptist 78 321 North Florida 69 80%   
Wed, Nov 4 134 Loyola Marymount 80 168 Queens 74 70%   
Thu, Nov 5 2 Florida 87 237 Jacksonville 56 99%   
Thu, Nov 5 311 Bellarmine 58 32 Indiana 84 98%   
Fri, Nov 6 51 Oklahoma St. 92 168 Queens 76 92%   
Fri, Nov 6 321 North Florida 60 18 UCLA 89 99%   
Fri, Nov 6 271 Stetson 58 41 West Virginia 79 97%   
Sat, Nov 7 311 Bellarmine 66 102 Miami (OH) 82 93%   
Sat, Nov 7 203 Lipscomb 72 275 SIU Edwardsville 66 73%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th
Queens 2 39% 25% 10% 3% 39 23 15 11 7 4 2
Lipscomb 3 26% 15% 8% 3% 26 21 18 14 11 7 4
Jacksonville 3 21% 12% 7% 3% 21 19 17 15 13 9 6
Florida Gulf Coast 3 20% 11% 6% 3% 20 18 17 15 13 10 7
Stetson 4 15% 8% 5% 2% 15 17 17 17 15 12 8
North Florida 5 5% 2% 2% 1% 5 8 11 14 17 22 24
Bellarmine 5 5% 2% 2% 1% 5 7 10 13 17 21 26

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0
Queens 8 - 4 18 - 14 0 0 1 2 4 9 14 18 20 17 10 5 1
Lipscomb 7 - 5 15 - 15 0 0 1 4 8 13 17 19 17 12 6 2 0
Jacksonville 6 - 6 11 - 16 0 1 2 5 10 15 18 18 15 10 5 2 0
Florida Gulf Coast 6 - 6 13 - 16 0 1 3 6 11 15 18 17 14 9 5 2 0
Stetson 6 - 6 10 - 18 0 1 3 7 13 17 19 17 12 7 3 1 0
North Florida 5 - 7 10 - 19 1 4 10 17 19 18 14 9 5 2 1 0 0
Bellarmine 4 - 8 10 - 19 1 5 11 17 19 18 14 9 4 2 1 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Queens 28% 28% 0% 15 Negligible 3 8 14 3 72
Lipscomb 18% 18% 0% Negligible 1 6 12 82
Florida Gulf Coast 15% 15% 0% Negligible 1 6 8 85
Jacksonville 16% 16% 0% Negligible 1 8 7 84
Stetson 12% 12% 0% Negligible 1 5 7 88
Bellarmine 5% 5% 0% Negligible 1 4 95
North Florida 5% 5% 0% Negligible 1 4 95

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.0 100
1st Round 63% 0.6 37 63
2nd Round 4% 0.0 96 4
Sweet Sixteen 1% 0.0 99 1
Elite Eight 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Four 0% 0.0 100
Final Game 0% 0.0 100
Champion 0% 0.0 100

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Queens 28% 12% 22% 2%
Lipscomb 18% 17% 11% 1%
Florida Gulf Coast 15% 13% 9%
Jacksonville 16% 13% 10% 1%
Stetson 12% 10% 7%
Bellarmine 5% 4% 2%
North Florida 5% 5% 2%