Colonial Athletic
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
UNC Wilmington 28%   14   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +3.8 109 B- +3 95 C+ +1 135 0 137 0 1
College of Charleston 15%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 +1.5 129 C+ +2 119 C +0 170 0 137 0 1
Hofstra 13%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 +0.4 148 C- -1 188 C+ +2 115 0 137 0 1
Monmouth 8%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -1.7 178 C- -2 221 C +0 150 +7 63 0 1
Elon 6%   Negligible 1 - 0 0 - 0 -2.0 183 C +1 137 D+ -3 270 +11 25 0 1
Towson 8%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -2.1 185 C- -2 243 C +0 145 -3 298 0 1
Hampton 5%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -3.3 210 C- -2 214 C- -2 216 0 137 0 1
William & Mary 5%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -3.6 218 C- -2 205 C- -2 235 0 137 0 1
Stony Brook 5%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -3.8 225 C- -2 216 C- -2 238 0 137 0 1
Drexel 3%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -4.8 247 D -4 293 C +0 174 0 137 0 1
Campbell 2%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -4.9 249 C- -2 228 D+ -3 273 +1 121 0 1
Northeastern 3%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -5.8 267 C -1 178 D- -5 335 -17 353 0 1
N.C. A&T 1%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -7.7 299 D+ -3 267 D -4 322 0 137 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Mon, Nov 2 178 Monmouth 63 16 St. John's 78   
Mon, Nov 2 249 Campbell 64 50 North Carolina St. 83   
Mon, Nov 2 82 Santa Clara 89 185 Towson 70   
Mon, Nov 2 244 Columbia 71 183 Elon 84   
Mon, Nov 2 289 Boston University 93 267 Northeastern 85   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Tue, Nov 3 247 Drexel 52 12 Virginia 78 98%   
Tue, Nov 3 110 Georgia Tech 79 210 Hampton 69 83%   
Thu, Nov 5 185 Towson 60 101 Utah 70 83%   
Thu, Nov 5 148 Hofstra 63 156 Princeton 65 60%   
Fri, Nov 6 267 Northeastern 61 12 Virginia 87 98%   
Fri, Nov 6 94 Northwestern 75 225 Stony Brook 62 89%   
Fri, Nov 6 183 Elon 77 279 UNC Greensboro 69 77%   
Sat, Nov 7 79 George Washington 77 210 Hampton 63 90%   
Sat, Nov 7 171 East Carolina 70 109 UNC Wilmington 72 59%   
Sat, Nov 7 178 Monmouth 66 130 Rhode Island 69 62%   
Sat, Nov 7 299 N.C. A&T 71 151 Ohio 83 85%   
Sat, Nov 7 206 Colgate 66 247 Drexel 67 55%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
UNC Wilmington 3 42% 30% 9% 3% 42 19 12 8 6 4 3 2 1 1 1 0 0
College of Charleston 4 20% 12% 6% 2% 20 17 14 11 9 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1
Hofstra 5 17% 10% 5% 2% 17 16 14 11 9 8 6 5 4 3 3 2 1
Monmouth 6 10% 5% 3% 2% 10 11 11 11 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 3
Towson 6 8% 4% 3% 1% 8 10 10 11 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 3
Elon 6 7% 4% 2% 1% 7 9 9 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 4
Hampton 7 7% 4% 2% 1% 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 4
Stony Brook 7 5% 2% 2% 1% 5 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 6
William & Mary 7 5% 2% 2% 1% 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 5
Drexel 8 3% 1% 1% 1% 3 4 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 9
Campbell 8 2% 1% 1% 1% 2 4 5 6 6 8 8 9 10 11 11 10 10
Northeastern 8 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 11 10 11 9
N.C. A&T 10 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 9 11 13 16 21

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
UNC Wilmington 13 - 5 21 - 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 12 14 15 15 12 7 3 1
College of Charleston 11 - 7 16 - 12 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 8 11 13 15 14 12 9 6 3 1 0
Hofstra 11 - 7 17 - 13 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 11 13 14 14 11 8 4 2 1 0
Monmouth 10 - 8 15 - 17 0 0 1 2 4 7 9 11 13 14 12 10 8 4 2 1 0 0
Towson 9 - 9 15 - 15 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 12 14 14 12 9 6 4 2 1 0 0
Elon 9 - 9 15 - 15 0 0 1 1 3 5 8 11 13 14 13 11 8 6 3 2 1 0 0
Hampton 9 - 9 14 - 15 0 0 1 2 3 6 9 12 13 14 13 11 8 5 3 1 1 0 0
Stony Brook 8 - 10 14 - 15 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 12 14 14 12 9 7 4 2 1 0 0 0
William & Mary 8 - 10 13 - 16 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 13 14 13 12 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0
Drexel 8 - 10 13 - 17 0 0 2 4 7 10 12 13 14 13 10 7 4 3 1 0 0 0 0
Campbell 8 - 10 11 - 20 0 0 2 4 7 10 13 14 14 12 9 7 4 2 1 0 0 0
Northeastern 8 - 10 11 - 21 0 0 2 3 7 10 13 15 15 12 9 7 4 2 1 0 0 0 0
N.C. A&T 6 - 12 10 - 18 0 2 4 8 12 15 15 14 11 8 5 3 1 1 0 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
UNC Wilmington 28% 27% 1% 14 Likely Out 1 3 10 10 3 72
College of Charleston 15% 15% 0% Negligible 1 4 6 4 85
Hofstra 13% 13% 0% Negligible 1 3 5 4 87
Monmouth 8% 8% 0% Negligible 1 3 3 0 92
Elon 6% 6% 0% Negligible 1 3 2 0 94
Towson 8% 8% 0% Negligible 1 2 4 1 92
Hampton 5% 5% 0% Negligible 0 1 3 1 95
William & Mary 5% 5% 0% Negligible 1 2 2 1 95
Stony Brook 5% 5% 0% Negligible 0 1 2 1 95
Drexel 3% 3% 0% Negligible 1 1 1 97
Campbell 2% 2% 0% Negligible 1 1 1 98
Northeastern 3% 3% 0% Negligible 1 2 97
N.C. A&T 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 0 1 99

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.0 99 1
1st Round 88% 0.9 12 87 1
2nd Round 12% 0.1 88 12 0
Sweet Sixteen 3% 0.0 97 3
Elite Eight 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Four 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Game 0% 0.0 100 0
Champion 0% 0.0 100

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UNC Wilmington 28% 2% 27% 5% 1%
College of Charleston 15% 2% 14% 2%
Hofstra 13% 2% 12% 1%
Monmouth 8% 2% 7% 1%
Elon 6% 1% 6%
Towson 8% 3% 6% 1%
Hampton 5% 3% 4%
William & Mary 5% 2% 4%
Stony Brook 5% 2% 3%
Drexel 3% 2% 2%
Campbell 2% 1% 2%
Northeastern 3% 2% 2%
N.C. A&T 1% 1% 1%