Colonial Athletic
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
UNC Wilmington 28%   14   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +3.8 110 B- +3 97 C+ +1 134 0 164 0 1
College of Charleston 15%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 +1.5 130 C+ +2 119 C +0 170 0 164 0 1
Hofstra 13%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 +0.4 149 C- -1 188 C+ +2 118 0 164 0 1
Monmouth 8%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -1.7 178 C- -2 221 C +0 148 +7 66 0 1
Elon 7%   Negligible 1 - 0 0 - 0 -2.0 183 C +1 139 D+ -3 268 +11 25 0 1
Towson 7%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -2.0 185 C- -2 238 C +0 145 -2 278 0 1
William & Mary 5%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -3.6 217 C- -2 206 C- -2 233 0 164 0 1
Stony Brook 5%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -3.8 223 C- -2 215 C- -2 237 0 164 0 1
Hampton 4%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -4.0 228 D+ -3 265 C- -1 182 -5 305 0 1
Campbell 3%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -4.9 247 C- -2 227 D+ -3 271 +1 146 0 1
Drexel 3%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -5.0 249 D -5 296 C +0 169 +8 55 0 1
Northeastern 2%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -5.8 267 C -1 178 D- -5 332 -17 350 0 1
N.C. A&T 1%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -7.7 298 D+ -3 266 D -4 319 0 164 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Mon, Nov 2 178 Monmouth 63 17 St. John's 78   
Mon, Nov 2 247 Campbell 64 50 North Carolina St. 83   
Mon, Nov 2 77 Santa Clara 89 185 Towson 70   
Mon, Nov 2 243 Columbia 71 183 Elon 84   
Mon, Nov 2 287 Boston University 93 267 Northeastern 85   
Tue, Nov 3 249 Drexel 60 12 Virginia 89   
Tue, Nov 3 104 Georgia Tech 75 228 Hampton 55   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Thu, Nov 5 185 Towson 59 100 Utah 69 83%   
Thu, Nov 5 149 Hofstra 63 156 Princeton 65 60%   
Fri, Nov 6 267 Northeastern 63 12 Virginia 90 98%   
Fri, Nov 6 95 Northwestern 75 223 Stony Brook 62 89%   
Fri, Nov 6 183 Elon 77 278 UNC Greensboro 69 77%   
Sat, Nov 7 81 George Washington 80 228 Hampton 65 91%   
Sat, Nov 7 170 East Carolina 70 110 UNC Wilmington 72 59%   
Sat, Nov 7 178 Monmouth 65 116 Rhode Island 70 68%   
Sat, Nov 7 298 N.C. A&T 71 151 Ohio 83 85%   
Sat, Nov 7 206 Colgate 69 249 Drexel 70 54%   
Sun, Nov 8 247 Campbell 71 186 Western Michigan 77 71%   
Sun, Nov 8 307 Norfolk St. 73 217 William & Mary 81 77%   
Mon, Nov 9 252 LIU Brooklyn 62 185 Towson 68 73%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
UNC Wilmington 3 42% 30% 9% 3% 42 19 12 8 6 4 3 2 2 1 1 0 0
College of Charleston 4 21% 13% 6% 2% 21 17 14 11 9 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1
Hofstra 5 18% 11% 5% 2% 18 16 13 11 9 8 6 6 4 3 3 2 1
Monmouth 6 10% 5% 3% 1% 10 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 3
Towson 6 8% 4% 3% 1% 8 10 11 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 3
Elon 6 7% 4% 2% 1% 7 9 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 5 5 4
Stony Brook 7 5% 3% 2% 1% 5 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 5
Hampton 7 5% 2% 2% 1% 5 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 5
William & Mary 7 5% 2% 1% 1% 5 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 5
Campbell 8 3% 1% 1% 1% 3 4 5 6 7 8 8 9 10 11 10 11 9
Drexel 8 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 4 5 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 11 11
Northeastern 8 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 11 11 11 9
N.C. A&T 10 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 2 3 4 5 6 8 9 11 13 16 21

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
UNC Wilmington 13 - 5 21 - 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 6 9 12 14 16 15 12 7 3 1
College of Charleston 11 - 7 16 - 12 0 0 0 1 1 3 5 8 11 13 14 14 12 9 6 3 1 0
Hofstra 11 - 7 17 - 13 0 0 0 1 2 3 6 9 11 13 15 13 11 8 5 2 1 0
Monmouth 10 - 8 15 - 17 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 12 13 14 12 10 8 5 2 1 0 0
Towson 9 - 9 15 - 15 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 13 14 14 13 10 7 4 2 1 0 0
Elon 9 - 9 15 - 15 0 0 0 1 3 5 7 11 13 14 13 12 9 6 3 2 1 0 0
Stony Brook 9 - 9 14 - 15 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 12 14 14 12 10 7 4 3 1 0 0 0
Hampton 9 - 9 13 - 16 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 12 14 14 12 10 7 4 2 1 0 0 0
William & Mary 8 - 10 13 - 16 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 12 14 14 12 9 7 4 2 1 0 0 0
Campbell 8 - 10 12 - 20 0 0 2 4 7 10 13 14 14 12 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0
Drexel 8 - 10 13 - 17 0 1 2 4 7 10 12 14 13 12 10 7 4 2 1 0 0 0
Northeastern 8 - 10 11 - 21 0 0 1 4 6 10 14 14 14 12 10 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0
N.C. A&T 6 - 12 10 - 18 0 1 4 8 12 15 15 14 11 8 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
UNC Wilmington 28% 27% 1% 14 Likely Out 1 3 11 10 4 72
College of Charleston 15% 15% 0% Negligible 1 4 6 4 85
Hofstra 13% 13% 0% Negligible 3 5 4 87
Monmouth 8% 8% 0% Negligible 1 3 3 0 92
Elon 7% 7% 0% Negligible 1 3 2 0 93
Towson 7% 7% 0% Negligible 1 2 4 1 93
William & Mary 5% 5% 0% Negligible 1 2 2 1 95
Stony Brook 5% 5% 0% Negligible 0 1 3 1 95
Hampton 4% 4% 0% Negligible 1 2 1 96
Campbell 3% 3% 0% Negligible 1 2 1 97
Drexel 3% 3% 0% Negligible 1 1 1 97
Northeastern 2% 2% 0% Negligible 1 1 98
N.C. A&T 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 1 0 99

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.0 99 1
1st Round 87% 0.9 13 87 0
2nd Round 11% 0.1 89 11 0
Sweet Sixteen 2% 0.0 98 2
Elite Eight 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Four 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Game 0% 0.0 100 0
Champion 0% 0.0 100

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UNC Wilmington 28% 2% 27% 5% 1%
College of Charleston 15% 2% 14% 2%
Hofstra 13% 2% 12% 1%
Monmouth 8% 2% 7% 1%
Elon 7% 1% 6% 1%
Towson 7% 3% 6% 1%
William & Mary 5% 2% 4%
Stony Brook 5% 2% 4%
Hampton 4% 3% 3%
Campbell 3% 2% 2%
Drexel 3% 1% 2%
Northeastern 2% 2% 1%
N.C. A&T 1% 1% 1%