Ohio Valley
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Tennessee St. 30%   16   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -3.5 215 D+ -3 257 C +0 174 -6 312 0 1
Southeast Missouri St. 19%   Negligible 1 - 0 0 - 0 -5.0 248 D+ -4 287 C- -1 186 +7 71 0 1
SIU Edwardsville 15%   Negligible 0 - 0 0 - 0 -6.3 273 D -5 319 C- -1 194 0 159 0 1
Tennessee Martin 15%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -7.1 283 D -5 314 C- -2 235 -11 332 0 1
Lindenwood 7%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -8.9 317 D- -6 336 D+ -3 263 +3 122 0 1
Southern Indiana 6%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -10.1 329 D- -7 347 D+ -3 279 -8 320 0 1
Morehead St. 5%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -10.5 334 D -5 294 D- -6 351 -7 314 0 1
Eastern Illinois 3%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -12.8 355 F+ -8 359 D -5 323 +4 105 0 1
Western Illinois 1%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -15.7 363 F+ -9 363 D- -6 356 -9 327 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Mon, Nov 2 317 Lindenwood 59 40 TCU 98   
Mon, Nov 2 86 Murray St. 94 215 Tennessee St. 64   
Mon, Nov 2 355 Eastern Illinois 57 33 Indiana 91   
Mon, Nov 2 169 Tulane 100 283 Tennessee Martin 98   
Mon, Nov 2 209 Lipscomb 79 248 Southeast Missouri St. 86   
Mon, Nov 2 334 Morehead St. 58 111 Western Kentucky 83   
Mon, Nov 2 125 Belmont 72 329 Southern Indiana 54   
Mon, Nov 2 145 Valparaiso 80 363 Western Illinois 58   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Fri, Nov 6 355 Eastern Illinois 49 42 Iowa 77 99%   
Sat, Nov 7 13 Louisville 88 334 Morehead St. 57 99%   
Sat, Nov 7 209 Lipscomb 72 273 SIU Edwardsville 66 72%   
Sat, Nov 7 300 IU Indianapolis 75 283 Tennessee Martin 73 59%   
Sat, Nov 7 277 Evansville 70 329 Southern Indiana 66 63%   
Sat, Nov 7 261 Houston Christian 69 363 Western Illinois 59 83%   
Sun, Nov 8 92 South Carolina 78 248 Southeast Missouri St. 63 91%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
Tennessee St. 2 41% 29% 9% 3% 41 24 13 10 7 3 2 1 1
Southeast Missouri St. 3 25% 16% 6% 3% 25 23 17 11 10 7 4 3 1
SIU Edwardsville 4 19% 12% 4% 3% 19 17 17 15 10 7 7 6 2
Tennessee Martin 4 18% 11% 5% 2% 18 16 16 13 12 10 7 6 2
Lindenwood 5 8% 5% 2% 1% 8 12 12 14 12 12 13 11 7
Morehead St. 5 7% 4% 2% 1% 7 9 8 12 13 13 12 15 10
Southern Indiana 6 5% 3% 1% 1% 5 8 12 8 14 15 13 12 12
Eastern Illinois 6 3% 1% 1% 1% 3 5 7 7 14 16 16 15 16
Western Illinois 7 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 1 3 5 13 12 17 22 27

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Tennessee St. 11 - 5 14 - 10 0 1 2 5 9 13 13 17 16 13 8 3 1
Southeast Missouri St. 10 - 6 14 - 13 0 0 1 3 5 7 12 15 16 18 11 8 4 0
SIU Edwardsville 9 - 7 13 - 14 1 1 3 4 8 10 12 17 14 12 12 5 2 1 0
Tennessee Martin 9 - 7 12 - 14 1 3 4 11 11 14 16 13 9 9 5 2 2 0
Lindenwood 8 - 8 11 - 16 1 1 3 6 10 12 13 13 17 9 7 4 2 1
Morehead St. 7 - 9 10 - 18 0 1 2 5 8 12 14 15 14 12 8 5 4 1 1 0
Southern Indiana 7 - 9 10 - 17 1 3 6 9 11 13 15 14 11 9 4 2 1 0
Eastern Illinois 6 - 10 9 - 19 0 2 4 9 10 11 16 18 11 9 5 4 1 0
Western Illinois 5 - 11 7 - 20 0 4 6 12 18 16 15 14 11 2 2 1 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Tennessee St. 30% 30% 0% 16 Negligible 1 9 21 70
Southeast Missouri St. 19% 19% 0% Negligible 1 8 10 81
SIU Edwardsville 15% 15% 0% Negligible 3 12 85
Tennessee Martin 15% 15% 0% Negligible 1 14 85
Lindenwood 7% 7% 0% Negligible 7 93
Southern Indiana 6% 6% 0% Negligible 6 94
Morehead St. 5% 5% 0% Negligible 5 95
Eastern Illinois 3% 3% 0% Negligible 3 97
Western Illinois 1% 1% 0% Negligible 1 99

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.0 100
1st Round 49% 0.5 51 49
2nd Round 2% 0.0 98 2
Sweet Sixteen 1% 0.0 99 1
Elite Eight 0% 0.0 100
Final Four 0% 0.0 100
Final Game 0% 0.0 100
Champion 0% 0.0 100

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Tennessee St. 30% 28% 16% 1%
Southeast Missouri St. 19% 17% 8% 1%
SIU Edwardsville 15% 14% 7%
Tennessee Martin 15% 15% 7%
Lindenwood 7% 7% 3%
Southern Indiana 6% 6% 3%
Morehead St. 5% 5% 3%
Eastern Illinois 3% 3% 1%
Western Illinois 1% 1%