Preseason Rankings
Atlantic Coast
2026-27


Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Duke 99%   1   Likely In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +23.9 1 A+ +13 2 A+ +11 1 0 1 0 1
Louisville 93%   3   Likely In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +17.9 11 A +9 16 A +9 9 0 1 0 1
Virginia 91%   4   Likely In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +17.4 14 A- +9 17 A +8 12 0 1 0 1
Miami (FL) 75%   8   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +16.9 18 A +10 8 A- +7 20 0 1 0 1
North Carolina 76%   9   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +13.1 38 B+ +7 47 A- +6 27 0 1 0 1
Clemson 49%   Bubble - Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +11.7 48 B+ +6 52 B+ +6 38 0 1 0 1
Virginia Tech 54%   11   Bubble - In 0 - 0 0 - 0 +11.4 50 B+ +7 49 B +5 55 0 1 0 1
North Carolina St. 48%   Bubble - Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +11.3 51 A- +8 30 B- +3 89 0 1 0 1
SMU 40%   Bubble - Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +9.8 58 B +6 55 B +4 71 0 1 0 1
Florida St. 32%   Bubble - Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +9.4 62 B +5 66 B +5 59 0 1 0 1
Syracuse 25%   Bubble - Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +8.9 65 B- +4 73 B +5 57 0 1 0 1
Stanford 35%   Bubble - Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +8.5 69 B- +4 74 B +4 63 0 1 0 1
Pittsburgh 27%   Bubble - Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +7.6 75 B- +4 76 B +4 76 0 1 0 1
Notre Dame 19%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +7.2 79 B- +4 79 B- +3 86 0 1 0 1
Wake Forest 16%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +6.7 83 B- +3 99 B +4 73 0 1 0 1
California 13%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +6.7 84 B- +3 88 B- +3 80 0 1 0 1
Boston College 3%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +3.8 107 C+ +3 103 C+ +1 114 0 1 0 1
Georgia Tech 4%   Likely Out 0 - 0 0 - 0 +3.8 109 B- +3 93 C+ +1 135 0 1 0 1


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sun, Nov 1 79 Notre Dame 66 31 Villanova 73 75%   
Mon, Nov 2 2 Florida 80 18 Miami (FL) 74 72%   
Mon, Nov 2 338 Army 51 1 Duke 88 100%   
Mon, Nov 2 275 Chattanooga 61 11 Louisville 88 99%   
Mon, Nov 2 38 North Carolina 82 189 Western Carolina 64 94%   
Mon, Nov 2 164 Eastern Washington 66 69 Stanford 79 87%   
Mon, Nov 2 249 Campbell 70 51 North Carolina St. 89 95%   
Mon, Nov 2 48 Clemson 78 278 Stetson 57 96%   
Mon, Nov 2 58 SMU 85 303 Southern 64 96%   
Mon, Nov 2 322 Florida A&M 65 62 Florida St. 84 95%   
Mon, Nov 2 352 New Haven 53 65 Syracuse 77 98%   
Mon, Nov 2 75 Pittsburgh 77 357 Rider 53 98%   
Mon, Nov 2 364 Maryland Eastern Shore 51 83 Wake Forest 78 99%   
Tue, Nov 3 245 Drexel 52 14 Virginia 78 98%   
Tue, Nov 3 109 Georgia Tech 79 209 Hampton 69 83%   
Tue, Nov 3 358 Coppin St. 57 50 Virginia Tech 85 99%   
Tue, Nov 3 107 Boston College 75 341 Wagner 58 94%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Duke 3 44% 27% 12% 5% 44 20 13 8 5 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Louisville 4 26% 14% 8% 4% 26 18 15 10 8 6 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0
Virginia 4 21% 12% 6% 3% 21 15 14 10 8 7 6 5 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 0
Miami (FL) 6 11% 5% 4% 2% 11 12 13 12 9 9 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 0 0
North Carolina 7 7% 3% 3% 2% 7 9 8 9 9 9 9 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 1 1 1
Virginia Tech 7 6% 3% 2% 1% 6 8 9 9 9 9 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 1
Clemson 8 5% 2% 2% 1% 5 7 8 8 7 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 3 3 2 2 1
North Carolina St. 8 4% 2% 1% 1% 4 6 7 8 8 8 7 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 1
SMU 9 2% 1% 1% 1% 2 3 5 5 7 7 7 8 7 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 2
Stanford 10 2% 1% 1% 1% 2 3 5 5 7 6 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 5 4 3
Florida St. 10 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 3 4 5 5 6 7 7 6 7 8 8 7 7 6 6 4 3
Syracuse 10 2% 1% 0% 0% 2 3 3 4 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 6 7 6 5 3
Notre Dame 10 1% 0% 1% 0% 1 2 4 5 5 6 6 7 6 8 7 7 6 6 8 7 5 4
Pittsburgh 11 2% 1% 0% 0% 2 2 4 3 4 5 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 6 5 5
Wake Forest 11 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 9 8 7 5
California 12 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 1 2 2 2 4 5 4 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 8 7
Boston College 14 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 14 15 19
Georgia Tech 14 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 4 6 8 8 10 13 16 19

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Duke 13 - 5 25 - 7 0 0 0 0 1 2 5 9 14 18 20 15 11 4 1
Louisville 12 - 6 21 - 8 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 8 13 16 16 14 11 5 2 0
Virginia 12 - 6 22 - 9 0 0 1 1 3 5 8 12 15 16 16 11 8 4 1 0
Miami (FL) 11 - 7 21 - 9 0 0 1 1 2 4 8 10 14 16 16 13 8 4 2 1 0
North Carolina 10 - 8 20 - 12 0 0 1 3 4 7 12 13 16 14 12 9 5 2 1 0 0
Virginia Tech 10 - 8 21 - 11 0 0 0 2 4 4 9 11 12 15 15 11 8 5 2 1 0
Clemson 10 - 8 19 - 11 0 0 0 1 3 6 10 12 16 14 12 11 7 4 2 0 0 0
North Carolina St. 9 - 9 20 - 11 0 0 1 2 4 6 10 12 15 15 12 10 6 4 1 0 0
SMU 9 - 9 19 - 13 0 1 1 3 6 9 13 15 15 14 10 7 4 2 1 0 0 0
Stanford 8 - 10 18 - 13 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 12 14 14 13 11 7 3 2 0 0 0
Florida St. 8 - 10 18 - 14 0 0 1 2 4 7 11 14 15 14 13 9 5 2 2 1 0 0
Syracuse 8 - 10 18 - 14 0 0 1 3 5 8 11 15 14 13 12 9 5 3 1 1 0 0
Notre Dame 8 - 10 16 - 14 0 0 1 3 6 9 11 14 14 13 11 8 5 3 1 0 0 0
Pittsburgh 8 - 10 17 - 15 0 0 1 3 5 9 12 14 15 12 11 7 4 3 1 0 0 0 0
Wake Forest 7 - 11 17 - 14 0 0 1 4 7 12 14 14 13 13 10 6 4 2 1 0 0 0
California 7 - 11 16 - 15 0 1 3 5 8 12 16 15 13 11 7 5 2 1 0 0
Boston College 6 - 12 15 - 17 1 3 6 11 15 16 15 12 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0
Georgia Tech 5 - 13 15 - 17 0 4 7 11 14 15 15 13 9 5 3 1 1 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Duke 99% 25% 99% 1 Likely In 30 23 16 10 7 6 4 2 2 1 1 1
Louisville 93% 17% 92% 3 Likely In 14 13 13 11 9 8 7 6 3 4 5 7
Virginia 91% 17% 90% 4 Likely In 11 13 12 10 9 8 7 5 4 5 6 1 9
Miami (FL) 75% 9% 72% 8 Bubble - In 3 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 8 11 2 25
North Carolina 76% 7% 74% 9 Bubble - In 4 4 5 6 7 7 8 7 7 9 11 2 24
Clemson 49% 4% 47% Bubble - Out 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 6 6 7 12 2 51
Virginia Tech 54% 5% 52% 11 Bubble - In 1 1 2 3 4 5 5 7 5 7 13 2 46
North Carolina St. 48% 3% 46% Bubble - Out 1 1 2 2 3 3 5 5 5 6 13 4 52
SMU 40% 2% 39% Bubble - Out 1 1 2 2 3 3 5 5 13 3 60
Florida St. 32% 2% 30% Bubble - Out 1 1 1 2 2 2 4 5 11 3 68
Syracuse 25% 2% 24% Bubble - Out 1 1 2 2 3 5 9 1 75
Stanford 35% 2% 33% Bubble - Out 1 1 2 3 4 5 4 10 4 65
Pittsburgh 27% 2% 26% Bubble - Out 1 1 2 2 3 3 5 9 2 73
Notre Dame 19% 1% 17% Likely Out 1 1 2 2 3 7 3 81
Wake Forest 16% 1% 15% Likely Out 1 1 1 2 3 5 2 84
California 13% 1% 13% Likely Out 1 1 1 2 5 2 87
Boston College 3% 0% 3% Likely Out 0 0 0 0 1 1 97
Georgia Tech 4% 0% 4% Likely Out 0 0 1 2 1 96

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 8.0 0 2 10 23 31 22 9 2 0
1st Round 100% 6.9 0 2 11 25 31 21 8 2 0 0
2nd Round 100% 4.5 0 0 5 16 28 30 15 5 1 0
Sweet Sixteen 96% 2.3 4 19 34 29 12 2 0
Elite Eight 77% 1.2 23 43 25 7 1 0
Final Four 50% 0.6 50 39 10 1 0
Final Game 29% 0.3 71 27 2
Champion 16% 0.2 84 16

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Duke 99% 2% 98% 86% 57% 34% 20% 11% 7%
Louisville 93% 9% 90% 70% 41% 23% 12% 6% 3%
Virginia 91% 10% 87% 67% 40% 20% 11% 6% 3%
Miami (FL) 75% 19% 67% 43% 22% 10% 4% 2% 1%
North Carolina 76% 18% 67% 41% 20% 9% 5% 2% 1%
Clemson 49% 18% 40% 21% 8% 4% 2% 1%
Virginia Tech 54% 20% 45% 24% 11% 5% 2% 1%
North Carolina St. 48% 19% 39% 20% 8% 3% 1% 1%
SMU 40% 18% 30% 16% 6% 3% 1% 1%
Florida St. 32% 16% 24% 12% 3% 1% 1%
Syracuse 25% 13% 18% 9% 3% 1%
Stanford 35% 16% 27% 13% 5% 2% 1%
Pittsburgh 27% 12% 21% 10% 4% 2%
Notre Dame 19% 11% 12% 6% 2% 1%
Wake Forest 16% 8% 11% 6% 2% 1%
California 13% 8% 9% 4% 1% 1%
Boston College 3% 2% 2% 1%
Georgia Tech 4% 3% 3% 1%