Pre-tourney Rankings
Virginia Commonwealth
Atlantic 10
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.6#44
Expected Predictive Rating+10.0#50
Pace70.0#142
Improvement+2.2#91

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#164
First Shot+0.5#162
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#178
Layup/Dunks+2.8#75
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#283
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#216
Freethrows+0.9#115
Improvement+5.4#11

Defense
Total Defense+10.2#7
First Shot+12.1#2
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#327
Layups/Dunks+2.7#66
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#3
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.8#5
Freethrows-0.9#239
Improvement-3.2#304
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 72.8% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 72.8% n/a n/a
Average Seed 9.8 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four9.7% n/a n/a
First Round68.3% n/a n/a
Second Round28.5% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen5.9% n/a n/a
Elite Eight1.7% n/a n/a
Final Four0.4% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.1% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1.0 - 1.01.0 - 1.0
Quad 1b1.0 - 1.02.0 - 2.0
Quad 23.0 - 2.05.0 - 4.0
Quad 39.0 - 3.014.0 - 7.0
Quad 411.0 - 0.025.0 - 7.0


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 183   Gardner-Webb W 69-57 91%     1 - 0 +7.8 -8.5 +16.3
  Nov 09, 2018 206   Hampton W 69-57 92%     2 - 0 +6.6 -17.5 +22.8
  Nov 12, 2018 112   Bowling Green W 72-61 81%     3 - 0 +12.4 -5.9 +17.5
  Nov 19, 2018 70   Temple W 57-51 63%     4 - 0 +13.1 -9.0 +22.5
  Nov 20, 2018 73   St. John's L 86-87 OT 64%     4 - 1 +6.0 +0.6 +5.5
  Nov 24, 2018 105   Hofstra W 69-67 OT 80%     5 - 1 +3.8 -13.2 +16.9
  Nov 28, 2018 122   @ Old Dominion L 52-62 67%     5 - 2 -3.8 -10.3 +5.8
  Dec 01, 2018 191   Iona W 88-59 92%     6 - 2 +24.3 +4.3 +18.0
  Dec 05, 2018 30   @ Texas W 54-53 33%     7 - 2 +16.3 -7.9 +24.2
  Dec 09, 2018 2   @ Virginia L 49-57 9%     7 - 3 +17.8 -3.2 +19.5
  Dec 15, 2018 126   College of Charleston L 79-83 83%     7 - 4 -3.7 -6.2 +3.1
  Dec 22, 2018 88   Wichita St. W 70-54 77%     8 - 4 +19.0 +7.3 +13.4
  Dec 30, 2018 213   Rider W 90-79 93%     9 - 4 +5.4 +11.4 -6.4
  Jan 05, 2019 244   @ Fordham W 76-51 88%     10 - 4 1 - 0 +22.7 +9.5 +14.8
  Jan 09, 2019 216   La Salle W 69-63 93%     11 - 4 2 - 0 +0.2 -9.0 +8.9
  Jan 12, 2019 86   @ Davidson L 57-64 58%     11 - 5 2 - 1 +1.7 -7.5 +8.7
  Jan 16, 2019 63   Dayton W 76-71 71%     12 - 5 3 - 1 +10.0 +5.8 +4.2
  Jan 19, 2019 225   Massachusetts W 68-50 93%     13 - 5 4 - 1 +11.6 -5.6 +18.2
  Jan 23, 2019 133   @ Rhode Island L 65-71 70%     13 - 6 4 - 2 -0.8 -7.3 +6.8
  Jan 26, 2019 160   @ Duquesne W 80-74 78%     14 - 6 5 - 2 +8.7 +4.4 +4.0
  Feb 02, 2019 155   George Mason W 79-63 88%     15 - 6 6 - 2 +13.8 +1.3 +11.8
  Feb 06, 2019 270   @ George Washington W 60-50 90%     16 - 6 7 - 2 +6.4 -6.3 +13.7
  Feb 09, 2019 119   @ St. Bonaventure W 85-55 66%     17 - 6 8 - 2 +36.4 +12.5 +21.8
  Feb 13, 2019 184   Richmond W 81-60 91%     18 - 6 9 - 2 +16.8 +9.4 +9.0
  Feb 16, 2019 63   @ Dayton W 69-68 50%     19 - 6 10 - 2 +11.5 +8.6 +3.1
  Feb 19, 2019 133   Rhode Island W 76-42 85%     20 - 6 11 - 2 +33.7 +13.6 +24.3
  Feb 23, 2019 270   George Washington W 85-57 96%     21 - 6 12 - 2 +18.9 +11.7 +7.7
  Feb 26, 2019 102   Saint Louis W 71-65 80%     22 - 6 13 - 2 +7.9 +6.5 +1.8
  Mar 02, 2019 184   @ Richmond W 69-66 81%     23 - 6 14 - 2 +4.3 -4.5 +8.9
  Mar 05, 2019 155   @ George Mason W 71-36 76%     24 - 6 15 - 2 +38.4 +2.8 +37.1
  Mar 08, 2019 174   Saint Joseph's W 75-63 90%     25 - 6 16 - 2 +8.5 +2.7 +6.3
  Mar 15, 2019 133   Rhode Island L 70-75 78%     25 - 7 -2.6 +1.6 -4.3
Projected Record 25.0 - 7.0 16.0 - 2.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 100.0    100.0
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 72.8% 72.8% 9.8 0.0 0.9 8.6 17.0 26.4 17.8 2.1 0.0 27.3 72.8%
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 72.8% 0.0% 72.8% 9.8 0.0 0.9 8.6 17.0 26.4 17.8 2.1 0.0 27.3 72.8%