IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Cal Poly
Big West
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	-9.3	#317
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	65.8	#263
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-4.6	#293

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-4.7	#322

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	n/a	n/a	n/a

.500 or above	9.2%	31.2%	8.5%
.500 or above in Conference	14.1%	29.3%	13.6%
Conference Champion	0.5%	0.2%	0.5%
Last Place in Conference	27.1%	12.0%	27.6%

First Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
First Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Arizona (Away) - 2.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.0 - 0.4	0.0 - 0.4
Quad 1b	0.0 - 1.0	0.0 - 1.4
Quad 2	0.2 - 2.9	0.2 - 4.3
Quad 3	1.4 - 7.7	1.6 - 12.0
Quad 4	6.5 - 8.0	8.0 - 20.0

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 11, 2018	66	@ Arizona	L	63-80	3%
Nov 16, 2018	257	@ Sacramento St.	L	66-70	27%
Nov 19, 2018	191	@ Washington St.	L	68-76	16%
Nov 21, 2018	203	Texas St.	L	61-68	27%
Nov 23, 2018	241	@ Portland	L	67-72	24%
Nov 24, 2018	334	South Carolina Upstate	W	76-74	58%
Dec 01, 2018	91	@ Fresno St.	L	61-76	6%
Dec 08, 2018	299	Bethune-Cookman	L	77-79	55%
Dec 15, 2018	198	@ California	L	66-73	19%
Dec 18, 2018	204	@ Cal St. Bakersfield	L	62-69	21%
Dec 21, 2018	256	Texas Arlington	L	71-75	48%
Dec 29, 2018	284	@ Siena	L	65-68	31%
Jan 09, 2019	177	@ UC Santa Barbara	L	65-74	16%
Jan 12, 2019	342	Cal St. Northridge	W	70-65	74%
Jan 19, 2019	131	@ UC Davis	L	62-74	11%
Jan 23, 2019	282	UC Riverside	L	66-69	50%
Jan 26, 2019	143	Cal St. Fullerton	L	65-76	25%
Jan 31, 2019	282	@ UC Riverside	L	66-69	31%
Feb 02, 2019	342	@ Cal St. Northridge	W	70-65	56%
Feb 07, 2019	131	UC Davis	L	62-74	24%
Feb 09, 2019	189	Long Beach St.	L	71-79	34%
Feb 14, 2019	201	@ Hawaii	L	64-71	20%
Feb 21, 2019	90	@ UC Irvine	L	60-75	7%
Feb 23, 2019	201	Hawaii	L	64-71	38%
Feb 28, 2019	143	@ Cal St. Fullerton	L	65-76	13%
Mar 02, 2019	189	@ Long Beach St.	L	71-79	19%
Mar 07, 2019	90	UC Irvine	L	60-75	17%
Mar 09, 2019	177	UC Santa Barbara	L	65-74	32%
Projected Record						8.0 - 20.0	4.7 - 11.3

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big West Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st										0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0			0.5	1st
2nd										0.1	0.4	0.5	0.3	0.0	0.0				1.3	2nd
3rd								0.0	0.2	1.1	1.1	0.3	0.0						2.6	3rd
4th							0.1	0.4	2.0	1.8	0.6	0.0							4.9	4th
5th						0.1	1.0	3.3	3.1	0.9	0.1								8.5	5th
6th					0.4	2.7	5.5	4.2	1.0	0.0									13.8	6th
7th			0.1	1.7	6.1	7.8	4.6	1.0	0.0										21.3	7th
8th		0.8	5.5	10.4	8.5	3.4	0.5	0.0											29.2	8th
9th	2.3	6.0	5.8	3.0	0.5	0.0													17.7	9th

Total	2.3	6.8	11.5	15.1	15.5	14.0	11.7	9.0	6.4	3.9	2.2	0.9	0.5	0.1	0.1	0.0				Total

Big West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0
15-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
14-2	98.4%	0.1		0.1	0.0
13-3	91.6%	0.1		0.1	0.0	0.0
12-4	36.6%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.0
11-5	12.8%	0.1		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
10-6	0.7%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0
9-7	0.0%	0.0							0.0
8-8	0.0%

Total	0.5%	0.5		0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0		0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1	0.0%																							0.0
14-2	0.1%																							0.1
13-3	0.1%																							0.1
12-4	0.5%																							0.5
11-5	0.9%																							0.9
10-6	2.2%																							2.2
9-7	3.9%																							3.9
8-8	6.4%																							6.4
7-9	9.0%																							9.0
6-10	11.7%																							11.7
5-11	14.0%																							14.0
4-12	15.5%																							15.5
3-13	15.1%																							15.1
2-14	11.5%																							11.5
1-15	6.8%																							6.8
0-16	2.3%																							2.3

Total	100%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0																		100.0		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.4%