IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Fairleigh Dickinson
Northeast
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	-5.2	#252
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	73.2	#75
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.1	#199

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-4.1	#303

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	10.0%	18.7%	8.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.3	15.0	15.4

.500 or above	49.2%	75.4%	43.9%
.500 or above in Conference	66.2%	82.5%	62.8%
Conference Champion	11.8%	20.3%	10.0%
Last Place in Conference	5.4%	2.2%	6.1%

First Four	3.6%	4.1%	3.5%
First Round	8.3%	16.4%	6.6%
Second Round	0.4%	1.0%	0.3%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Rutgers (Away) - 17.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.0 - 0.3	0.0 - 0.3
Quad 1b	0.0 - 0.6	0.0 - 1.0
Quad 2	0.2 - 1.6	0.3 - 2.5
Quad 3	1.6 - 4.6	1.8 - 7.1
Quad 4	11.6 - 7.5	13.4 - 14.6

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2018	140	@ Rutgers	L	67-74	17%
Nov 21, 2018	145	@ Princeton	L	69-75	19%
Nov 25, 2018	293	Lafayette	W	78-76	67%
Nov 27, 2018	47	@ Providence	L	66-81	6%
Dec 01, 2018	206	@ Holy Cross	L	68-70	32%
Dec 12, 2018	216	Army	L	77-79	54%
Dec 15, 2018	228	NJIT	L	73-74	56%
Dec 19, 2018	178	St. Peter's	L	64-68	44%
Dec 21, 2018	154	@ Massachusetts	L	72-78	22%
Dec 29, 2018	250	@ South Florida	L	71-72	40%
Jan 03, 2019	233	@ Robert Morris	L	73-74	37%
Jan 05, 2019	160	@ St. Francis (PA)	L	76-81	24%
Jan 10, 2019	313	Central Connecticut St.	W	74-70	70%
Jan 12, 2019	215	@ Wagner	L	72-74	35%
Jan 19, 2019	225	@ LIU Brooklyn	L	80-81	36%
Jan 21, 2019	331	Mount St. Mary's	W	74-68	78%
Jan 24, 2019	318	St. Francis Brooklyn	W	78-74	72%
Jan 26, 2019	315	@ Bryant	W	82-78	53%
Jan 31, 2019	225	LIU Brooklyn	L	80-81	55%
Feb 02, 2019	233	Robert Morris	L	73-74	58%
Feb 07, 2019	324	@ Sacred Heart	W	77-72	56%
Feb 09, 2019	318	@ St. Francis Brooklyn	W	78-74	54%
Feb 14, 2019	160	St. Francis (PA)	L	76-81	42%
Feb 16, 2019	315	Bryant	W	82-78	72%
Feb 21, 2019	324	Sacred Heart	W	77-72	75%
Feb 23, 2019	215	Wagner	L	72-74	53%
Feb 28, 2019	331	@ Mount St. Mary's	W	74-68	61%
Mar 02, 2019	313	@ Central Connecticut St.	W	74-70	53%
Projected Record						13.4 - 14.6	9.8 - 8.2

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Northeast Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.5	1.7	3.4	3.0	2.1	0.8	0.2		11.8	1st
2nd										0.0	0.2	1.4	3.3	4.7	2.9	1.0	0.1				13.6	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.2	2.0	5.0	4.8	2.1	0.3	0.0					14.4	3rd
4th								0.0	0.2	2.4	5.2	4.2	1.0	0.1							13.2	4th
5th							0.0	0.3	2.7	5.4	3.6	0.7	0.0								12.7	5th
6th						0.0	0.3	2.4	4.3	3.1	0.4	0.0									10.5	6th
7th					0.0	0.4	2.2	3.9	2.0	0.3	0.0										8.8	7th
8th				0.1	0.4	1.9	2.8	1.5	0.2												6.9	8th
9th		0.0	0.1	0.5	1.6	1.7	0.8	0.1	0.0												4.8	9th
10th	0.0	0.3	0.8	1.0	1.0	0.3	0.1														3.5	10th

Total	0.0	0.3	0.8	1.6	3.0	4.3	6.2	8.3	9.4	11.4	11.4	11.3	9.6	8.6	6.5	3.9	2.2	0.8	0.2			Total

Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.2		0.2
17-1	100.0%	0.8		0.8	0.0
16-2	95.4%	2.1		1.9	0.2
15-3	75.6%	3.0		2.1	0.8	0.1
14-4	51.9%	3.4		1.7	1.3	0.4	0.0
13-5	19.8%	1.7		0.5	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0
12-6	5.2%	0.5		0.1	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.3%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	11.8%	11.8		7.2	3.4	1.0	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.2%		62.1%	62.1%		12.0							0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1
17-1	0.8%		60.9%	60.8%	0.1%	14.1												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.3		0.2%
16-2	2.2%		51.9%	51.9%		14.4													0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.2	1.1
15-3	3.9%		37.3%	37.3%		14.8													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.4	2.5
14-4	6.5%		26.4%	26.4%		15.4													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.6	0.9	4.8
13-5	8.6%		20.5%	20.5%		15.6														0.0	0.1	0.5	1.2	6.8
12-6	9.6%		12.4%	12.4%		15.8															0.0	0.2	1.0	8.5
11-7	11.3%		8.9%	8.9%		15.9															0.0	0.1	0.9	10.3
10-8	11.4%		4.6%	4.6%		16.0															0.0	0.0	0.5	10.9
9-9	11.4%		2.9%	2.9%		16.0																0.0	0.3	11.1
8-10	9.4%		1.5%	1.5%		15.9																0.0	0.1	9.2
7-11	8.3%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																	0.1	8.2
6-12	6.2%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	6.2
5-13	4.3%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	4.3
4-14	3.0%																							3.0
3-15	1.6%																							1.6
2-16	0.8%																							0.8
1-17	0.3%																							0.3
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		10.0%	10.0%	0.0%	15.3							0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.6	1.1	2.7	5.6	90.0		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%