Preseason Rankings
North Florida
Atlantic Sun
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.2#213
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace80.8#10
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#94
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-6.2#337
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.7% 16.9% 8.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.3 15.1
.500 or above 36.0% 61.0% 30.8%
.500 or above in Conference 72.9% 84.1% 70.7%
Conference Champion 12.7% 19.6% 11.3%
Last Place in Conference 2.4% 1.0% 2.7%
First Four2.4% 2.2% 2.5%
First Round8.5% 16.1% 7.0%
Second Round0.6% 1.7% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Dayton (Away) - 17.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.1 - 3.00.1 - 3.0
Quad 1b0.2 - 2.20.3 - 5.1
Quad 20.7 - 3.11.0 - 8.3
Quad 32.6 - 4.33.6 - 12.5
Quad 49.5 - 3.413.1 - 15.9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2018 107   @ Dayton L 78-85 17%    
  Nov 09, 2018 57   @ Penn St. L 75-87 8%    
  Nov 17, 2018 138   @ Wright St. L 77-82 22%    
  Nov 20, 2018 163   Southern Miss L 79-82 39%    
  Nov 21, 2018 146   Jacksonville St. L 76-80 36%    
  Nov 27, 2018 16   @ Florida L 73-90 4%    
  Nov 29, 2018 352   Florida A&M W 87-72 94%    
  Dec 01, 2018 232   @ Charleston Southern W 80-79 42%    
  Dec 11, 2018 68   @ Minnesota L 81-92 11%    
  Dec 13, 2018 226   @ Florida International W 83-82 43%    
  Dec 15, 2018 232   Charleston Southern W 80-79 64%    
  Dec 19, 2018 15   @ Florida St. L 80-97 4%    
  Dec 29, 2018 13   @ Auburn L 81-99 4%    
  Jan 05, 2019 340   North Alabama W 84-74 87%    
  Jan 09, 2019 136   @ Lipscomb L 89-94 23%    
  Jan 12, 2019 179   Florida Gulf Coast L 86-88 53%    
  Jan 16, 2019 337   @ Stetson W 89-80 70%    
  Jan 19, 2019 155   @ Liberty L 74-78 29%    
  Jan 21, 2019 228   NJIT W 80-79 63%    
  Jan 24, 2019 289   Jacksonville W 85-81 71%    
  Jan 27, 2019 179   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 86-88 33%    
  Jan 30, 2019 338   @ Kennesaw St. W 86-77 70%    
  Feb 06, 2019 136   Lipscomb L 89-94 42%    
  Feb 09, 2019 340   @ North Alabama W 84-74 72%    
  Feb 13, 2019 338   Kennesaw St. W 86-77 84%    
  Feb 16, 2019 228   @ NJIT W 80-79 42%    
  Feb 20, 2019 289   @ Jacksonville W 85-81 53%    
  Feb 23, 2019 155   Liberty L 74-78 47%    
  Feb 26, 2019 337   Stetson W 89-80 84%    
Projected Record 13.1 - 15.9 9.2 - 6.8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.5 4.2 3.3 1.6 0.5 12.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.7 5.7 2.3 0.3 14.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.1 6.8 5.4 1.5 0.1 17.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.1 7.2 4.6 0.9 0.0 17.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 4.6 6.0 3.1 0.4 0.0 15.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.1 4.3 1.6 0.2 11.7 6th
7th 0.2 1.2 2.4 2.0 0.4 0.0 6.4 7th
8th 0.2 0.6 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.2 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.7 4.6 7.5 10.2 12.2 13.8 13.4 11.6 9.7 6.7 3.6 1.6 0.5 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
15-1 100.0% 1.6    1.5 0.1
14-2 91.8% 3.3    2.5 0.8 0.0
13-3 63.4% 4.2    2.1 1.8 0.3 0.0
12-4 25.4% 2.5    0.7 1.3 0.4 0.0
11-5 5.4% 0.6    0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 12.7% 12.7 7.4 4.2 1.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.5% 65.2% 65.2% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
15-1 1.6% 51.7% 51.7% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.8 0.1%
14-2 3.6% 37.5% 37.5% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 2.2 0.1%
13-3 6.7% 26.4% 26.4% 0.0% 14.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 4.9 0.0%
12-4 9.7% 17.6% 17.6% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 8.0
11-5 11.6% 12.6% 12.6% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 10.1
10-6 13.4% 8.7% 8.7% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 12.2
9-7 13.8% 4.4% 4.4% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 13.2
8-8 12.2% 2.2% 2.2% 15.9 0.0 0.2 11.9
7-9 10.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1 10.1
6-10 7.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.4
5-11 4.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 4.5
4-12 2.7% 2.7
3-13 1.3% 1.3
2-14 0.6% 0.6
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 9.7% 9.7% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 2.5 4.1 90.3 0.0%