IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	-10.6	#326
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	69.6	#165
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-7.5	#338

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-3.2	#283

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.3%	0.7%	0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.1	15.1	14.8

.500 or above	5.4%	9.0%	2.2%
.500 or above in Conference	10.6%	15.2%	6.5%
Conference Champion	0.3%	0.5%	0.1%
Last Place in Conference	40.8%	33.1%	47.6%

First Four	0.2%	0.4%	0.0%
First Round	0.3%	0.5%	0.0%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Jacksonville (Home) - 46.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.0 - 0.3	0.0 - 0.3
Quad 1b	0.0 - 0.8	0.0 - 1.1
Quad 2	0.1 - 3.0	0.1 - 4.1
Quad 3	1.1 - 8.5	1.3 - 12.6
Quad 4	6.1 - 10.0	7.4 - 22.6

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 10, 2018	289	Jacksonville	L	68-72	47%
Nov 12, 2018	134	@ South Dakota	L	65-78	7%
Nov 14, 2018	253	@ Nebraska Omaha	L	71-76	22%
Nov 18, 2018	201	@ Hawaii	L	64-72	16%
Nov 29, 2018	131	@ UC Davis	L	61-74	8%
Dec 01, 2018	217	@ Santa Clara	L	63-70	18%
Dec 08, 2018	152	Utah Valley	L	64-75	24%
Dec 15, 2018	321	@ San Jose St.	L	66-67	37%
Dec 19, 2018	137	@ San Francisco	L	61-74	9%
Dec 21, 2018	87	@ Utah	L	59-75	4%
Dec 29, 2018	73	Montana	L	61-79	10%
Dec 31, 2018	251	Montana St.	L	70-75	41%
Jan 03, 2019	147	@ Weber St.	L	64-76	11%
Jan 05, 2019	247	@ Idaho St.	L	68-74	23%
Jan 12, 2019	295	@ Southern Utah	L	72-75	31%
Jan 17, 2019	257	Sacramento St.	L	65-70	43%
Jan 19, 2019	246	Portland St.	L	74-80	40%
Jan 26, 2019	172	Northern Colorado	L	68-78	27%
Jan 28, 2019	295	Southern Utah	L	72-75	50%
Feb 02, 2019	262	@ Idaho	L	64-69	26%
Feb 04, 2019	174	@ Eastern Washington	L	64-74	14%
Feb 07, 2019	247	Idaho St.	L	68-74	41%
Feb 09, 2019	147	Weber St.	L	64-76	23%
Feb 14, 2019	246	@ Portland St.	L	74-80	24%
Feb 16, 2019	257	@ Sacramento St.	L	65-70	25%
Feb 21, 2019	262	Idaho	L	64-69	45%
Feb 23, 2019	174	Eastern Washington	L	64-74	29%
Mar 02, 2019	251	@ Montana St.	L	70-75	24%
Mar 04, 2019	73	@ Montana	L	61-79	4%
Mar 09, 2019	172	@ Northern Colorado	L	68-78	14%
Projected Record						7.4 - 22.6	5.5 - 14.5

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big Sky Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.3	1st
2nd												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.8	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.3	0.5	0.5	0.2	0.1							1.6	3rd
4th										0.1	0.5	1.1	0.7	0.3	0.0								2.8	4th
5th								0.0	0.1	0.9	1.7	1.1	0.3	0.0									4.2	5th
6th							0.0	0.2	1.4	2.3	1.1	0.3	0.0										5.4	6th
7th						0.0	0.3	1.9	3.6	2.0	0.4	0.0											8.2	7th
8th					0.0	0.6	2.8	4.8	2.5	0.5	0.0												11.2	8th
9th			0.0	0.2	1.4	4.6	5.2	2.7	0.4	0.0													14.5	9th
10th		0.1	1.2	3.5	6.7	5.8	2.4	0.4	0.0														20.2	10th
11th	2.9	5.6	8.2	7.3	5.2	1.4	0.3	0.0															30.8	11th

Total	2.9	5.7	9.4	11.0	13.3	12.4	11.1	10.0	8.0	5.7	3.9	2.9	1.6	1.1	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0				Total

Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0
19-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
18-2	98.8%	0.0		0.0	0.0
17-3	65.9%	0.0		0.0	0.0
16-4	65.5%	0.1		0.0	0.1	0.0
15-5	26.5%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0
14-6	5.7%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
13-7	0.2%	0.0			0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	0.3%	0.3		0.1	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1	0.0%																							0.0
18-2	0.0%		66.7%	34.6%	32.1%	13.0														0.0		0.0		0.0		49.1%
17-3	0.0%																							0.0
16-4	0.1%		42.4%	42.4%		12.8												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1
15-5	0.4%		11.0%	11.0%		15.0															0.0	0.0		0.3
14-6	0.5%		2.8%	2.8%		15.0															0.0	0.0	0.0	0.5
13-7	1.1%		1.6%	1.6%		15.9														0.0		0.0	0.0	1.1
12-8	1.6%		1.8%	1.8%		15.6																0.0	0.0	1.6
11-9	2.9%		2.4%	2.4%		16.0																0.0	0.1	2.8
10-10	3.9%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	3.9
9-11	5.7%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	5.7
8-12	8.0%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	8.0
7-13	10.0%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	10.0
6-14	11.1%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	11.0
5-15	12.4%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	12.4
4-16	13.3%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	13.3
3-17	11.0%																							11.0
2-18	9.4%																							9.4
1-19	5.7%																							5.7
0-20	2.9%																							2.9

Total	100%		0.3%	0.3%	0.0%	15.1												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	99.7		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	1.4%