IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
UC Davis
Big West
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	+2.6	#131
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	65.8	#261
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+0.4	#154

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+2.2	#106

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	20.1%	24.4%	13.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.7%	1.2%	0.0%
Average Seed	13.9	13.7	14.6

.500 or above	80.2%	88.0%	67.7%
.500 or above in Conference	87.1%	90.3%	81.9%
Conference Champion	25.1%	29.1%	18.7%
Last Place in Conference	0.7%	0.4%	1.2%

First Four	2.3%	2.2%	2.4%
First Round	19.3%	23.6%	12.4%
Second Round	3.3%	4.4%	1.6%
Sweet Sixteen	1.0%	1.4%	0.3%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Final Four	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: San Francisco (Home) - 61.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.1 - 1.1	0.1 - 1.1
Quad 1b	0.3 - 1.5	0.4 - 2.6
Quad 2	1.3 - 2.7	1.8 - 5.3
Quad 3	4.4 - 3.6	6.2 - 8.9
Quad 4	10.7 - 2.1	17.0 - 11.0

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2018	137	San Francisco	W	67-66	62%
Nov 09, 2018	121	San Diego	L	67-68	58%
Nov 12, 2018	94	@ Arkansas	L	71-73	31%
Nov 17, 2018	309	TX A&M Corpus Christi	W	72-61	84%
Nov 18, 2018	256	@ Texas Arlington	W	76-68	68%
Nov 20, 2018	257	Sacramento St.	W	71-63	78%
Nov 23, 2018	25	@ Indiana	L	64-74	13%
Nov 29, 2018	326	Northern Arizona	W	74-61	92%
Dec 05, 2018	186	@ Northern Illinois	W	71-67	52%
Dec 22, 2018	66	@ Arizona	L	68-73	23%
Dec 28, 2018	165	@ Loyola Marymount	W	72-69	50%
Dec 30, 2018	58	@ USC	L	67-73	22%
Jan 10, 2019	90	@ UC Irvine	L	65-68	31%
Jan 12, 2019	189	@ Long Beach St.	W	76-72	53%
Jan 17, 2019	177	UC Santa Barbara	W	70-67	70%
Jan 19, 2019	317	Cal Poly	W	74-62	89%
Jan 26, 2019	201	@ Hawaii	W	70-65	56%
Feb 02, 2019	282	@ UC Riverside	W	71-62	69%
Feb 07, 2019	317	@ Cal Poly	W	74-62	76%
Feb 09, 2019	177	@ UC Santa Barbara	W	70-67	50%
Feb 13, 2019	342	Cal St. Northridge	W	75-58	95%
Feb 16, 2019	189	Long Beach St.	W	76-72	71%
Feb 21, 2019	143	@ Cal St. Fullerton	W	70-69	44%
Feb 23, 2019	342	@ Cal St. Northridge	W	75-58	87%
Feb 28, 2019	90	UC Irvine	L	65-68	50%
Mar 02, 2019	143	Cal St. Fullerton	W	70-69	63%
Mar 07, 2019	201	Hawaii	W	70-65	74%
Mar 09, 2019	282	UC Riverside	W	71-62	84%
Projected Record						17.0 - 11.0	10.6 - 5.4

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big West Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st										0.0	0.0	0.8	3.8	7.2	7.4	4.5	1.4		25.1	1st
2nd									0.0	0.2	1.8	7.0	8.0	4.7	1.0				22.7	2nd
3rd								0.0	0.2	2.9	7.0	6.3	1.7	0.1					18.2	3rd
4th							0.0	0.3	2.4	5.5	4.4	0.6	0.0						13.3	4th
5th						0.0	0.3	2.1	4.2	2.1	0.3	0.0							9.0	5th
6th					0.1	0.4	1.8	2.6	1.3	0.1									6.3	6th
7th				0.1	0.4	1.3	1.5	0.5	0.1										3.9	7th
8th		0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.0											1.3	8th
9th		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0												0.3	9th

Total		0.0	0.2	0.4	0.9	2.0	3.8	5.6	8.2	10.8	13.6	14.8	13.5	12.0	8.3	4.5	1.4			Total

Big West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	1.4		1.4
15-1	100.0%	4.5		4.3	0.2
14-2	88.4%	7.4		5.5	1.9	0.0
13-3	59.9%	7.2		4.2	2.6	0.4	0.0
12-4	28.2%	3.8		1.2	1.7	0.8	0.1	0.0
11-5	5.7%	0.8		0.1	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0
10-6	0.3%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
9-7	0.0%	0.0							0.0
8-8	0.0%

Total	25.1%	25.1		16.7	6.7	1.4	0.3	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	1.4%		78.3%	72.1%	6.2%	10.9		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0		0.3		22.2%
15-1	4.5%		62.3%	56.2%	6.1%	12.4								0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.4	0.8	0.8	0.4	0.2	0.0	1.7		13.9%
14-2	8.3%		43.4%	41.2%	2.2%	13.4										0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	0.9	1.1	0.6	0.1	4.7		3.7%
13-3	12.0%		34.0%	33.9%	0.1%	14.0												0.0	0.3	1.2	1.1	1.0	0.5	7.9		0.2%
12-4	13.5%		23.4%	23.3%	0.1%	14.5												0.0	0.1	0.5	0.9	1.0	0.6	10.4		0.1%
11-5	14.8%		16.8%	16.8%		14.9													0.0	0.2	0.5	0.9	0.8	12.3
10-6	13.6%		11.5%	11.5%		15.4													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.9	12.0
9-7	10.8%		6.5%	6.5%		15.6															0.1	0.1	0.5	10.1
8-8	8.2%		4.8%	4.8%		15.8															0.0	0.0	0.3	7.8
7-9	5.6%		3.3%	3.3%		16.0																0.0	0.2	5.4
6-10	3.8%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.0	3.8
5-11	2.0%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	2.0
4-12	0.9%		1.5%	1.5%		16.0																	0.0	0.9
3-13	0.4%																							0.4
2-14	0.2%																							0.2
1-15	0.0%																							0.0
0-16

Total	100%		20.1%	19.5%	0.6%	13.9		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.8	2.2	3.9	4.4	4.3	4.0	79.9		0.7%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	4.9	3.4		3.4	1.7	89.8					1.7