Preseason Rankings
Central Arkansas
Southland
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating-6.9#284
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace75.4#47
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#235
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-5.0#311
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.6% 15.6% 7.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 14.5 15.5
.500 or above 27.2% 61.1% 26.8%
.500 or above in Conference 61.2% 80.6% 61.0%
Conference Champion 9.1% 21.2% 8.9%
Last Place in Conference 4.7% 2.2% 4.8%
First Four3.0% 1.0% 3.0%
First Round6.1% 15.3% 6.0%
Second Round0.1% 1.6% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Baylor (Away) - 1.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 31 - 41 - 10
Quad 411 - 812 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 15   @ Baylor L 63-88 1%    
  Nov 10, 2019 54   @ Georgetown L 74-94 3%    
  Nov 12, 2019 3   @ Duke L 69-98 0.4%   
  Nov 17, 2019 220   Arkansas Little Rock L 78-79 48%    
  Nov 22, 2019 228   @ California Baptist L 76-82 29%    
  Dec 05, 2019 58   @ Wichita St. L 66-85 5%    
  Dec 07, 2019 110   @ Utah L 70-84 11%    
  Dec 14, 2019 117   @ Pepperdine L 76-89 12%    
  Dec 18, 2019 344   Incarnate Word W 80-70 80%    
  Dec 21, 2019 291   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 72-69 61%    
  Dec 28, 2019 27   @ Marquette L 68-90 3%    
  Jan 02, 2020 292   @ Houston Baptist L 87-89 42%    
  Jan 04, 2020 316   McNeese St. W 78-72 68%    
  Jan 08, 2020 243   @ New Orleans L 73-78 33%    
  Jan 11, 2020 186   Sam Houston St. L 74-76 43%    
  Jan 15, 2020 290   Stephen F. Austin W 77-74 61%    
  Jan 18, 2020 309   @ Nicholls St. L 78-79 46%    
  Jan 25, 2020 286   Abilene Christian W 73-70 60%    
  Jan 29, 2020 299   SE Louisiana W 74-70 63%    
  Feb 01, 2020 347   @ Northwestern St. W 78-74 64%    
  Feb 05, 2020 281   @ Lamar L 75-78 40%    
  Feb 08, 2020 316   @ McNeese St. L 75-76 48%    
  Feb 12, 2020 243   New Orleans W 76-75 52%    
  Feb 15, 2020 186   @ Sam Houston St. L 71-79 26%    
  Feb 19, 2020 290   @ Stephen F. Austin L 74-77 41%    
  Feb 22, 2020 309   Nicholls St. W 81-76 65%    
  Feb 29, 2020 286   @ Abilene Christian L 70-73 40%    
  Mar 04, 2020 299   @ SE Louisiana L 71-73 43%    
  Mar 07, 2020 347   Northwestern St. W 81-71 80%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 2.3 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 9.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.1 2.7 1.4 0.5 0.0 9.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.7 3.6 2.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 9.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.6 3.9 2.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 9.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.0 3.3 0.8 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 3.4 3.7 1.0 0.0 9.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.1 3.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 8.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.3 3.8 1.3 0.1 8.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.3 1.4 0.2 7.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 6.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.3 1.7 0.3 0.0 6.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 4.4 12th
13th 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.9 13th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.6 3.4 5.4 7.4 8.2 9.5 10.2 10.5 10.0 8.9 7.4 5.7 4.0 2.5 1.4 0.5 0.1 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
18-2 97.7% 1.3    1.2 0.1 0.0
17-3 81.4% 2.1    1.6 0.5 0.0
16-4 59.2% 2.3    1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0
15-5 32.7% 1.9    0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
14-6 9.6% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.1% 9.1 5.5 2.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 50.3% 50.3% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.5% 50.5% 50.5% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
18-2 1.4% 39.9% 39.9% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.8
17-3 2.5% 38.9% 38.9% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 1.6
16-4 4.0% 32.8% 32.8% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 2.7
15-5 5.7% 24.6% 24.6% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 4.3
14-6 7.4% 18.1% 18.1% 15.8 0.0 0.2 1.1 6.1
13-7 8.9% 8.8% 8.8% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 8.1
12-8 10.0% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.0 0.5 9.5
11-9 10.5% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3 10.2
10-10 10.2% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 10.1
9-11 9.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 9.5
8-12 8.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.2
7-13 7.4% 7.4
6-14 5.4% 5.4
5-15 3.4% 3.4
4-16 2.6% 2.6
3-17 1.3% 1.3
2-18 0.6% 0.6
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 7.6% 7.6% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.9 4.9 92.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%