IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Idaho St.
Big Sky
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	-11.7	#335
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	67.7	#208
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-4.4	#299

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-7.3	#346

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	1.3%	2.1%	1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.7	15.6	15.7

.500 or above	7.6%	16.4%	5.2%
.500 or above in Conference	16.1%	25.2%	13.6%
Conference Champion	0.9%	1.6%	0.7%
Last Place in Conference	33.4%	22.9%	36.3%

First Four	0.8%	1.0%	0.7%
First Round	0.9%	1.6%	0.7%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Wyoming (Away) - 21.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 3	1 - 7	1 - 10
Quad 4	7 - 11	8 - 21

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 05, 2019	275	@ Wyoming	L	68-76	22%
Nov 07, 2019	170	@ Air Force	L	64-78	9%
Nov 17, 2019	157	@ Washington St.	L	70-85	9%
Nov 22, 2019	128	@ Santa Clara	L	62-79	7%
Dec 06, 2019	117	@ Pepperdine	L	69-87	5%
Dec 16, 2019	160	UC Santa Barbara	L	65-74	22%
Dec 21, 2019	247	Pacific	L	66-70	37%
Dec 28, 2019	338	Idaho	W	72-68	63%
Dec 30, 2019	192	Eastern Washington	L	70-77	29%
Jan 04, 2020	280	@ Sacramento St.	L	67-75	25%
Jan 09, 2020	226	Southern Utah	L	73-78	34%
Jan 11, 2020	278	@ Northern Arizona	L	71-79	25%
Jan 16, 2020	191	Weber St.	L	74-81	29%
Jan 18, 2020	270	@ Portland St.	L	72-80	24%
Jan 23, 2020	198	Montana	L	69-75	30%
Jan 25, 2020	279	Montana St.	L	77-79	43%
Jan 30, 2020	214	@ Northern Colorado	L	64-76	17%
Feb 01, 2020	226	@ Southern Utah	L	70-81	18%
Feb 06, 2020	278	Northern Arizona	L	74-76	44%
Feb 08, 2020	280	Sacramento St.	L	70-72	43%
Feb 13, 2020	279	@ Montana St.	L	74-82	26%
Feb 15, 2020	198	@ Montana	L	66-78	16%
Feb 22, 2020	214	Northern Colorado	L	67-73	32%
Feb 27, 2020	270	Portland St.	L	75-77	42%
Mar 02, 2020	191	@ Weber St.	L	71-84	15%
Mar 05, 2020	192	@ Eastern Washington	L	67-80	15%
Mar 07, 2020	338	@ Idaho	L	69-71	43%
Projected Record						7 - 20	6 - 14

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big Sky Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0			0.9	1st
2nd												0.0	0.3	0.5	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0					1.7	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.2	0.9	0.7	0.5	0.1							2.4	3rd
4th										0.0	0.5	1.5	1.1	0.3	0.1	0.0							3.5	4th
5th									0.1	0.7	1.9	1.6	0.5	0.0									4.7	5th
6th							0.0	0.1	0.7	2.3	2.2	0.6	0.0	0.0									5.9	6th
7th						0.0	0.3	1.4	3.4	3.2	0.8	0.1											9.1	7th
8th					0.0	0.4	2.1	4.1	3.4	0.9	0.1												11.0	8th
9th			0.0	0.2	1.3	3.7	5.4	3.8	0.9	0.1													15.4	9th
10th		0.1	1.2	3.5	5.9	6.0	3.3	0.7	0.0														20.8	10th
11th	1.6	4.3	6.3	6.3	4.0	1.7	0.4	0.0															24.6	11th

Total	1.6	4.4	7.4	10.0	11.1	11.8	11.5	10.2	8.5	7.3	5.5	3.9	2.8	1.6	1.3	0.5	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0				Total

Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0
19-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
18-2	100.0%	0.1		0.1	0.0
17-3	94.5%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.0
16-4	63.7%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.0
15-5	44.8%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.0
14-6	11.3%	0.1		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
13-7	3.6%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.3%	0.0		0.0			0.0	0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	0.9%	0.9		0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1	0.0%																			0.0	0.0			0.0
18-2	0.1%		37.2%	37.2%		15.2														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
17-3	0.2%		30.7%	30.7%		14.6													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1
16-4	0.3%		31.6%	31.6%		15.0														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.2
15-5	0.5%		19.0%	19.0%		15.4														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4
14-6	1.3%		13.3%	13.3%		15.7															0.0	0.0	0.1	1.1
13-7	1.6%		11.8%	11.8%		15.8															0.0	0.0	0.2	1.4
12-8	2.8%		5.5%	5.5%		15.8																0.0	0.1	2.6
11-9	3.9%		4.2%	4.2%		16.0																	0.2	3.7
10-10	5.5%		2.6%	2.6%		16.0																	0.1	5.3
9-11	7.3%		0.9%	0.9%		16.0																	0.1	7.2
8-12	8.5%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.1	8.5
7-13	10.2%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	10.1
6-14	11.5%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	11.5
5-15	11.8%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	11.8
4-16	11.1%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	11.1
3-17	10.0%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	10.0
2-18	7.4%																							7.4
1-19	4.4%																							4.4
0-20	1.6%																							1.6

Total	100%		1.3%	1.3%	0.0%	15.7													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	1.0	98.7		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	1.1%