Preseason Rankings
Murray St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.2#119
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.1#113
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.3#107
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#135
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.3% 26.6% 15.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.2 14.5
.500 or above 93.0% 93.5% 76.3%
.500 or above in Conference 94.5% 94.7% 86.7%
Conference Champion 31.4% 31.9% 16.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.3% 1.2%
First Four0.7% 0.7% 1.3%
First Round26.0% 26.3% 15.4%
Second Round4.8% 4.9% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 1.5% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern (Home) - 97.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 34 - 35 - 6
Quad 415 - 220 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 346   Southern W 80-60 97%    
  Nov 12, 2019 30   @ Tennessee L 69-81 13%    
  Nov 19, 2019 207   Southern Illinois W 74-65 80%    
  Nov 25, 2019 189   La Salle W 77-72 68%    
  Dec 03, 2019 125   @ Missouri St. L 70-73 42%    
  Dec 07, 2019 174   Middle Tennessee W 76-69 73%    
  Dec 16, 2019 320   Kennesaw St. W 82-66 92%    
  Dec 21, 2019 182   @ Evansville W 75-73 57%    
  Jan 02, 2020 258   Tennessee Martin W 83-71 84%    
  Jan 04, 2020 294   Southeast Missouri St. W 82-68 88%    
  Jan 09, 2020 216   @ Jacksonville St. W 73-70 61%    
  Jan 11, 2020 310   @ Tennessee Tech W 77-68 78%    
  Jan 16, 2020 258   @ Tennessee Martin W 80-74 69%    
  Jan 18, 2020 294   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 79-71 75%    
  Jan 23, 2020 80   Belmont L 79-80 48%    
  Jan 25, 2020 272   Tennessee St. W 81-69 85%    
  Jan 30, 2020 255   Eastern Illinois W 80-68 83%    
  Feb 01, 2020 324   SIU Edwardsville W 85-68 92%    
  Feb 06, 2020 80   @ Belmont L 76-83 30%    
  Feb 08, 2020 272   @ Tennessee St. W 78-72 70%    
  Feb 13, 2020 211   @ Austin Peay W 78-75 61%    
  Feb 15, 2020 264   Morehead St. W 80-68 84%    
  Feb 20, 2020 255   @ Eastern Illinois W 77-71 67%    
  Feb 22, 2020 324   @ SIU Edwardsville W 82-71 81%    
  Feb 27, 2020 274   Eastern Kentucky W 92-79 85%    
  Feb 29, 2020 211   Austin Peay W 81-72 78%    
Projected Record 18 - 8 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.8 7.6 9.4 6.9 2.5 31.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.1 7.4 9.2 6.4 2.1 0.0 28.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.9 5.5 4.5 1.7 0.2 15.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.8 2.7 0.5 0.0 9.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 2.7 1.6 0.3 0.0 5.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 1.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 3.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.5 4.1 6.3 9.0 11.7 13.4 14.7 14.3 11.5 6.9 2.5 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.5    2.5
17-1 100.0% 6.9    6.4 0.6
16-2 82.1% 9.4    7.0 2.4 0.0
15-3 53.5% 7.6    4.3 3.0 0.3 0.0
14-4 25.5% 3.8    1.4 1.8 0.6 0.1
13-5 7.3% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 31.4% 31.4 21.7 8.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.5% 77.9% 69.8% 8.1% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 26.9%
17-1 6.9% 58.7% 56.1% 2.6% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.3 0.4 0.1 2.9 6.0%
16-2 11.5% 46.7% 46.4% 0.3% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 6.1 0.6%
15-3 14.3% 36.8% 36.8% 0.1% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.0 1.8 0.7 0.0 9.0 0.1%
14-4 14.7% 28.8% 28.7% 0.0% 14.0 0.2 1.0 1.7 1.2 0.1 10.5 0.0%
13-5 13.4% 18.8% 18.8% 14.5 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.0 0.3 10.9
12-6 11.7% 13.6% 13.6% 14.8 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.4 10.1
11-7 9.0% 7.9% 7.9% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 8.3
10-8 6.3% 6.0% 6.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 6.0
9-9 4.1% 3.5% 3.5% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.9
8-10 2.5% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.0 2.5
7-11 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.5
6-12 0.8% 0.8
5-13 0.4% 0.4
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 26.3% 25.9% 0.4% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 1.1 4.3 7.0 6.8 4.2 1.5 73.7 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 5.3 0.4 2.8 3.7 22.4 24.9 32.2 7.8 2.8 0.4 2.5 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 95.1% 10.1 1.6 4.9 3.3 4.9 3.3 1.6 24.6 26.2 23.0 1.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 63.3% 9.9 0.8 1.7 25.0 11.7 23.3 0.8