Preseason Rankings
Southern Illinois
Missouri Valley
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating-2.9#207
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.2#278
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.0#262
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#159
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.4% 5.3% 2.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.6 14.3
.500 or above 31.1% 49.1% 24.0%
.500 or above in Conference 30.8% 41.3% 26.6%
Conference Champion 3.3% 5.4% 2.5%
Last Place in Conference 24.2% 17.3% 27.0%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
First Round3.2% 5.0% 2.5%
Second Round0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas San Antonio (Neutral) - 28.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 34 - 85 - 14
Quad 48 - 413 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 121   Texas San Antonio L 71-77 28%    
  Nov 09, 2019 240   Delaware W 66-64 56%    
  Nov 10, 2019 201   Oakland L 70-71 49%    
  Nov 16, 2019 111   San Francisco L 66-70 38%    
  Nov 19, 2019 119   @ Murray St. L 65-74 20%    
  Nov 26, 2019 322   NC Central W 70-60 81%    
  Dec 01, 2019 141   @ Saint Louis L 61-68 27%    
  Dec 04, 2019 318   Norfolk St. W 73-63 81%    
  Dec 07, 2019 238   @ Southern Miss L 64-66 45%    
  Dec 15, 2019 53   @ Missouri L 57-73 9%    
  Dec 18, 2019 245   Hampton W 76-71 66%    
  Dec 21, 2019 294   Southeast Missouri St. W 74-66 74%    
  Dec 30, 2019 158   @ Indiana St. L 67-73 30%    
  Jan 04, 2020 187   Illinois St. W 67-65 57%    
  Jan 07, 2020 199   Valparaiso W 65-62 58%    
  Jan 11, 2020 136   @ Bradley L 61-68 26%    
  Jan 16, 2020 109   @ Loyola Chicago L 56-66 21%    
  Jan 19, 2020 145   Drake L 69-70 47%    
  Jan 22, 2020 114   Northern Iowa L 61-64 39%    
  Jan 25, 2020 187   @ Illinois St. L 64-68 38%    
  Jan 29, 2020 109   Loyola Chicago L 59-63 37%    
  Feb 01, 2020 145   @ Drake L 66-73 28%    
  Feb 05, 2020 182   @ Evansville L 66-70 36%    
  Feb 08, 2020 125   Missouri St. L 65-68 41%    
  Feb 12, 2020 199   @ Valparaiso L 62-65 38%    
  Feb 15, 2020 136   Bradley L 64-65 45%    
  Feb 20, 2020 182   Evansville W 69-67 57%    
  Feb 23, 2020 114   @ Northern Iowa L 58-67 22%    
  Feb 26, 2020 158   Indiana St. L 69-70 50%    
  Feb 29, 2020 125   @ Missouri St. L 62-71 24%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.6 1.4 0.4 0.0 6.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.0 3.3 1.7 0.4 0.0 7.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.1 2.0 0.2 0.0 8.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.1 2.3 0.3 0.0 11.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.9 5.4 3.0 0.3 0.0 12.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 3.7 5.6 3.0 0.4 0.0 13.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.7 5.1 2.5 0.4 0.0 15.4 9th
10th 0.7 2.4 4.0 4.8 3.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 16.8 10th
Total 0.7 2.5 4.5 7.3 9.2 10.5 11.6 12.0 11.0 9.0 7.3 5.7 3.8 2.5 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 91.7% 0.3    0.2 0.0
15-3 86.2% 0.5    0.4 0.1 0.0
14-4 68.9% 1.0    0.7 0.3 0.0
13-5 34.8% 0.9    0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 11.2% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.3% 3.3 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 20.0% 15.0% 5.0% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.9%
17-1 0.1% 50.8% 37.3% 13.6% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 21.6%
16-2 0.3% 30.1% 16.2% 13.9% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 16.6%
15-3 0.6% 22.8% 22.0% 0.8% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.0%
14-4 1.4% 23.3% 22.7% 0.6% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.8%
13-5 2.5% 17.5% 17.5% 13.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.1
12-6 3.8% 12.0% 12.0% 13.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.4
11-7 5.7% 8.9% 8.9% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 5.2
10-8 7.3% 6.3% 6.3% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 6.8
9-9 9.0% 3.8% 3.8% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 8.6
8-10 11.0% 2.4% 2.4% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.8
7-11 12.0% 0.9% 0.9% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11.9
6-12 11.6% 0.7% 0.7% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.5
5-13 10.5% 0.5% 0.5% 15.7 0.0 0.0 10.5
4-14 9.2% 0.1% 0.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 9.2
3-15 7.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.2
2-16 4.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.4
1-17 2.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.5
0-18 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 3.4% 3.3% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.5 96.6 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%