Preseason Rankings
St. Mary's
West Coast
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.3#19
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace60.0#347
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.1#24
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.2#30
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
#1 Seed 3.1% 4.6% 1.2%
Top 2 Seed 7.9% 11.5% 3.5%
Top 4 Seed 18.7% 25.8% 9.8%
Top 6 Seed 29.1% 38.6% 17.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 67.9% 78.1% 55.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 55.3% 67.6% 41.8%
Average Seed 7.1 6.6 8.1
.500 or above 98.8% 99.5% 97.8%
.500 or above in Conference 97.1% 98.2% 95.6%
Conference Champion 34.4% 39.8% 27.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four7.8% 7.0% 8.9%
First Round64.3% 75.0% 51.0%
Second Round42.6% 52.4% 30.4%
Sweet Sixteen21.0% 27.2% 13.3%
Elite Eight9.9% 13.5% 5.5%
Final Four4.4% 6.1% 2.2%
Championship Game1.9% 2.8% 0.8%
National Champion0.8% 1.1% 0.5%

Next Game: Wisconsin (Neutral) - 55.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 12 - 3
Quad 25 - 27 - 5
Quad 39 - 116 - 7
Quad 410 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 33   Wisconsin W 62-61 55%    
  Nov 11, 2019 218   Winthrop W 82-63 96%    
  Nov 14, 2019 289   Long Beach St. W 83-59 98%    
  Nov 17, 2019 327   Cal Poly W 80-53 99%    
  Nov 20, 2019 118   Fresno St. W 71-61 81%    
  Nov 23, 2019 227   Lehigh W 83-63 96%    
  Nov 29, 2019 34   Utah St. W 71-66 66%    
  Dec 01, 2019 195   Nebraska Omaha W 79-61 95%    
  Dec 05, 2019 147   Northern Illinois W 74-59 91%    
  Dec 08, 2019 60   Dayton W 67-63 65%    
  Dec 14, 2019 166   @ California W 72-61 82%    
  Dec 18, 2019 65   Arizona St. W 74-69 68%    
  Dec 21, 2019 95   Nevada W 74-65 77%    
  Dec 28, 2019 168   Seattle W 74-57 92%    
  Jan 02, 2020 111   @ San Francisco W 70-63 72%    
  Jan 04, 2020 247   @ Pacific W 71-56 90%    
  Jan 09, 2020 67   BYU W 77-69 76%    
  Jan 11, 2020 128   Santa Clara W 73-59 88%    
  Jan 18, 2020 117   @ Pepperdine W 75-68 72%    
  Jan 23, 2020 111   San Francisco W 73-60 85%    
  Jan 25, 2020 149   @ Loyola Marymount W 66-57 78%    
  Jan 30, 2020 285   Portland W 78-55 97%    
  Feb 01, 2020 67   @ BYU W 74-72 58%    
  Feb 06, 2020 164   @ San Diego W 70-60 80%    
  Feb 08, 2020 8   Gonzaga L 71-72 48%    
  Feb 15, 2020 247   Pacific W 74-53 96%    
  Feb 20, 2020 149   Loyola Marymount W 69-54 90%    
  Feb 22, 2020 164   San Diego W 73-57 91%    
  Feb 27, 2020 128   @ Santa Clara W 70-62 75%    
  Feb 29, 2020 8   @ Gonzaga L 68-75 29%    
Projected Record 24 - 6 12 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.7 6.0 10.9 11.2 4.4 34.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 5.4 11.6 11.7 5.1 0.0 35.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 4.6 6.2 3.4 0.4 15.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 2.7 3.0 1.0 0.1 7.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.6 0.3 0.0 4.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.6 0.2 1.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.1 5.5 9.1 12.8 16.8 18.1 16.0 11.3 4.4 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 4.4    4.4
15-1 99.9% 11.2    9.5 1.8
14-2 68.1% 10.9    6.1 4.6 0.1
13-3 33.2% 6.0    2.3 3.0 0.6 0.0
12-4 10.0% 1.7    0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-5 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 34.4% 34.4 22.8 10.2 1.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 4.4% 100.0% 64.7% 35.2% 2.2 1.5 1.6 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-1 11.3% 98.6% 52.7% 45.9% 3.7 1.4 2.5 2.1 2.1 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 97.0%
14-2 16.0% 96.5% 41.2% 55.2% 5.9 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.7 2.4 2.2 1.7 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.6 94.0%
13-3 18.1% 86.8% 30.6% 56.3% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.3 1.7 2.1 1.9 2.5 2.3 2.0 0.7 0.0 2.4 81.1%
12-4 16.8% 68.2% 22.4% 45.8% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.8 2.7 3.1 1.2 0.0 0.0 5.4 59.1%
11-5 12.8% 47.9% 15.9% 32.0% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.3 2.2 1.2 0.1 0.0 6.7 38.0%
10-6 9.1% 29.1% 10.9% 18.2% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 6.4 20.4%
9-7 5.5% 13.7% 5.7% 8.0% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.8 8.5%
8-8 3.1% 5.6% 3.2% 2.5% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.0 2.5%
7-9 1.7% 3.0% 2.4% 0.6% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.6%
6-10 0.8% 1.1% 1.1% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.8
5-11 0.3% 2.3% 2.3% 13.0 0.0 0.3
4-12 0.1% 7.5% 7.5% 12.0 0.0 0.1
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 67.9% 28.2% 39.7% 7.1 3.1 4.9 4.5 6.2 5.4 5.1 5.2 5.0 6.5 7.8 9.4 4.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 32.1 55.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 1.5 60.0 33.0 6.8 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 100.0% 1.8 43.2 39.7 14.3 2.6 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 2.1 33.5 37.7 18.1 5.4 5.4